there is one thing that i don’t agree with, kind of, and one thing that set the bells off.
first, leaving the sk around as scum. while i understand the math an sk can do some serious damage. since they aren’t town aligned they really don’t care who they kill. matter of fact if they can get a read on scum i believe that’s where they go shooting. scum are a bigger threat to the sk than town. so maybe it’s just a different philosophy but nonetheless. sure the sk will most likely hit town but if scum get unlucky they can get a large percentage of their team wiped out on accident. and with a gf, even more of a threat. so leaving them alive to mid game just doesn’t compute to me.
then the well, if i were scum i probably would have voted for you sounds real disingenious. i mean, you can question whether my play was correct but i don’t think anyone in their right mind believed that i was making it up. so this if i were scum i would have voted for you therefore the fact that i voted ped makes me town is not a conclusion that makes sense. so to bring it up just makes me more convinced that mhaye is playing the good townie card.
I’m going to look back at today’s cases again as well. It’s weird how many of them so far seem like a one-person vendetta. Don’t think I’ve seen anything like it in the games I’ve played or lurked in.
I’m not strongly convinced that Freudian is scum, but she has done nothing to convince me she is town since nearly being lynched yesterday. My vote is part tactical and part policy.
Honestly? I’m not sure what else I can say at this point to totally convince you. It’s like you guys have decided to view me in the lens of scum.
I do think it’s interesting that Cookies has moved her vote and thus moved the vote to a tie thus far but I’m guessing she’s assuming that enough people will be voting so that she won’t get killed.
One of the things I’ve realised about this game (Mafia as a whole, not just this specific instance) is that if the scum give the Town time, Townies can get their heads round the game collectively, and roust out the scum. In the early game, Town players are really like a mob; they don’t think. Much, anyway.
The SK will, in most games, reduce the number of mislynches needed for the scum to win by 1 or 2. Thus the SK is probably worth between 1 and 2 Mafiates. Their actions tend to favour the scum.
If there are 4 scum and 1 SK in a 25 player game, the chance of the SK hitting Townies in the first two Nights are quite good.
Assuming that the Day 1 and Day 2 lynchees are Town, then on N1 the scum have a 19/20 chance of hitting Town, and the SK 19/23. The chances of overlap are 1 in 19 so there is an 18/19 chance that, if both killers hit Town, they hit separate targets.
19/2319/2018/19=78.5%, roughly.
By N2 the Town is down to 16 players out of a total of 21 living. The scum have 16/17 chances of hitting Town, the SK 16/20 and there is a 15/16 chance of no overlap if both these happen.
16/1716/2015/16=70.6%, roughly.
Thus the chance of the SK causing two extra Town deaths is 0.785 * 0.706, or 55.4%. Those two extra deaths have shortened the number of Days the scum must maintain their facade by 1.
The remaining chances are better for Town; they range from a war of mutual extinction between the Mafia and SK (clearly the best Town result) down to a one-death Night where the Mafia and SK hit the same person.
At the start of the game, then, a rational Scum team will let the SK be, and aim to get the Town to lynch them starting sometime around Day 3 because, in the long run, the odds are that the result will favour the Scum more often than the Town.
Perhaps I should have said I would have voted for you if I thought I could have got you lynched. As a Mafiate, I want the Vig dead; lynching the Vig gets shot of a pro-Town source of deaths.
1 Vote Meeko (1 #708) Red Skeezix (708) ToeJam (1 #716) Tom Scud (716 723 787) Nanook of the North Shore (1 #721) Mahaloth (721) storyteller0910 (1 #770) GuiriEnEspaña (770) MHaye (1 #788) peekercpa (788)
0 Votes Mahaloth (1 #728) Tom Scud (728 787) Drain Bead USCDiver peekercpa Alka Seltzer Red Skeezix GuiriEnEspaña Mental Guy Lynch Leader
**
Not voting:* Nanook of the North Shore, USCDiver, MHaye, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
this is erroneous. while your math may very well be valid the conclusions you reach are flawed. you assume a direct relationship to percentage and outcome. that is not how to play.
i may only have a one in five of being right but if my payoff is greater than 20 percent then i play regardless.
so yeh, the percentage of an sk hitting two townies is predominantly more disposed to favor scum in absolutes. but you have to weight relative values. a townie dead is not the same value as a scum dead. weight them however, i choose about 3.5 to one. and the numbers then make it look more like about a 20 percent chance to have scum let an sk live. so while your math is a bit suspect on the surface when one assigns game influencing realities it is just plain wrong.
I don’t understand this excerpt please clarify. It reads to me like your are saying that you would have voted for peeker as a counterclaiming vig if you thought you could get him lynched since the vig is the source of pro-town deaths?
Your argument while compelling is less effective in a 20 person game, and is generally less meaningful than as presented since it appears to be based on independent probabilities which are incompatible with the amount of discussion, voting and strategies employed. If the SK kills only randomly it would carry more weight, but as such it does not. To me it looks like numerical blustering that ignores every element of the game except the numbers.
I’m saying that if I were a Mafiate I would have wanted to lynch Peeker, if I thought I could get away with it. Since I’m not, I don’t want Peeker dead.
My point is that if there is no reason to kill player A over player B, the most likely result is also the one favouring the Mafiates. Also, I’ve played a game in which we got shot of the SKs early, and later on I regretted that; we needed just one more Day to throw the Town into a tizzy with two deaths per Night.
Also, the SKs should be killing Townies in the early game, because in general their wincon is to be last man standing; that means they can’t get on the Mafia case early, lest the Mafia lose with large numbers of town still living. So, in the early game, the SK should be targeting Town.
What time does Day end? We have been packing and cleaning and moving since Christmas (both of our Mothers are our slave labor 0:) ) and our filled-to-the-gills caravan of vehicles arrived at our new house at 1:30am. I will spare you the batshit crazy nonsense we endured in our exit walkthru with our previous landlords.
I just caught up but sill need to decide where my vote will finally land.
Emphasis added. This seems to be the statement that’s landing MHaye in trouble - and I can see why. It’s a bad argument - if MHaye were scum, he’d have clearly voted for pedescribe (or not voted, or placed an off-vote “to get on the record” about some other “suspicion”), because it was a slam-dunk case.
Am I reading people’s reasons for voting right?
I’m tempted to agree with MHaye’s assessment of the SK’s value to the scum, but then I’m coming off a game where the SK wacked something like 5 town and zero scum (including a death-miller), so my read might be off.
First I will apologize for not taking part more during this week. While the rest of the family tying up the computer was part of the problem, it was more just the general business of the season that has kept me off.
I agree with Cookies that the game has gotten a bit anemic (sorry about my contribution to that). But I think in addition to the holidays it is due mainly to the fact that we killed the SK and the vig was outed early. With the vig either choosing not to shoot or being blocked causing a lot of single kills the game is moving slow and with all of them being vanilla, we can’t really analyze what they said for clues. We know their motives were pure, but they did not really have any extra information.
It is interesting how the lynch seems to again to be suddenly moving away from Freudian. While I don’t dismiss the possibility that MHaye could be scum, I don’t really see it from the couple of posts everyone seems to be jumping on. While I agree with peeker and Skeezix’s criticisms of his SK analysis, I don’t really see a scum motivation behind it since it is talking about something that we no longer have any control over anyway. (Well, now that I said that, I guess there is a possibility he is trying to just move the conversation to irrelevant topics, but I think I would need to see more than this).
While Freudian has been the one that I have found the most consistently suspicious, I have not been 100% confident in my votes for her (thus my switch to DC yesterDay). But in post 851, she is back to what has become a pattern for her in this game. She either misunderstood or mischaracterized MHaye’s post. It was obvious to me he was speaking hypothetically when he said “As a Mafiate” and also when he talked a about wanting to lynch the vig. Also, the two sentences she put in 851 don’t even make sense together. If she believed he slipped and admitted to being a Mafiate, then why wouldn’t he want the vig dead?
It looks to me like she has found a train to get on to get the lynch off herself. After what happened yesterDay, I would be hesitant to move my vote again in any case, but since I have not found anyone as suspicious as Freudian toDay and her post 851 pings me even more, this one is fairly easy for me. My vote stays.
God, here I go drifting again, but MG’s right - another sudden swing away from Freudian looks really weird and likely to throw Town into further confusion Tomorrow. (And Freudian’s vote in 851 is weird and undermotivated)