Can’t you say the same thing about the Xbox in the US? Especially considering the patriotic “buy American” feeling of the past year?
It is neck-and-neck in Europe (I believe it is slightly ahead in the UK but behind when you consider Europe as a whole) and well beaten into third place in Japan. The fact of the matter is that when considered globally the Xbox is in third place, no matter how well it is doing in the US.
Two things have changed gradually from the last couple generations of consoles:
I have no cite, these are based on my observations as a gamer.
I agree with MGibson; the N64 proved that must-have exclusives don’t guarantee success on a console. The N64 had several must-have titles (Mario 64, Ocarina of Time, Goldeneye, maybe Shadows of the Empire) but the high price of the games, plus the fact that there was barely any third-party support, helped kill it. The Dreamcast had several of the best games ever made as exclusive titles, but died a horrible and unfair death.
The PS2 has a few exclusives, most importantly the Grand Theft Auto series, but it doesn’t really need them. I believe it would have stayed on top regardless, because they got everything else right (DVD playing built in, backwards compatibility with the previous best-selling console, and of course all the hype of being the first next-gen console). Support from Square doesn’t hurt, and neither does the fact that just about every console game company other than Nintendo and Microsoft have a relationship with Sony to make PS2 games. It looks like a big library of titles is more important than just a few really, really exceptional titles when it comes to consoles.
Nintendo seems to have learned somewhat from the N64, and have been more aggressive in getting ports, but it seems to me that the only real drawing factor to the GameCube is still the Nintendo exclusives: Mario, Metroid, and Zelda. The only other big exclusive is the Resident Evil series, but remakes of old games aren’t going to draw in anybody new. And IMO, pissing off Rare was a very bad idea.
As for Microsoft, I’m still not sure where they’re targeting. To get their exclusives they’re buying development houses, like Bungie and Rare. And they still don’t have much to show for it: Halo is their only big exclusive that I can think of. They’ve released “improved” versions of some other titles, like Metal Gear 2, but that’s not going to draw anybody in. They keep going on about their focus towards “hardcore” gamers but no real breadth of quality titles for the thing; a big exclusive might make a buyer choose the Xbox over the PS2, but you need a wide range of titles to get the buyer to get a console in the first place. I think their biggest potential “exclusive” now is the Xbox Live service more than any one game.
Well, I just bought an Xbox last week, which means that the price is probably going to go down soon. (I caused the price of the Dreamcast, PS2, and N64 to drop at least $50 after I bought one.) I don’t know from business, but I’d be very surprised if price drops give a big boost to sales; if anything, it’ll only help keep levels steady. Because GC & Xbox are still distant seconds, they’re inherently niche market things – Xbox is targeting what it perceives as “hardcore” gamers, and GC is targeting Nintendo fans. PS2 is still the “everyman” console. I suspect that 90% of the people who would want an Xbox or GC are big enough fans that they’ve already bought one. So if the price drops, it’ll really only help Sony. For most people, a price drop will convince them “I can finally afford to get a console,” instead of “I can finally afford to get an Xbox/Gamecube”.
As for PS2 games’ being the “worst-looking” of the three; I think that that’s mostly online game site and game magazine hype. A lot of (very sad) people like to use all the technical specs of their consoles as bragging rights or marketing bullet points, but there’s really not all that much difference in the consoles, presentation-wise. The Xbox is inherently more powerful than the other two, but very very few titles on the Xbox take real advantage of it. Those that do just end up being pretty but bland games; there are dozens of Xbox games that use all the effects but are completely forgettable in the long run. And Final Fantasy X and ICO are, IMO, better-looking than anything I’ve seen on the Xbox. (Although Splinter Cell does have some very nice lighting effects).
The last I read was that only the PS2 is profitable, if that. All accounts say that Xbox is hemmoraging money, and I believe the Gamecube is losing money as well. But not as much as Xbox – the hard drive & video card in particular are very expensive; Microsoft’s “strategy” was to sell the consoles at a loss but make up the difference on software; I haven’t read anything that that’s even close to working yet. Of course, it doesn’t really matter for either company – Microsoft makes so much money on Windows and Office that every other division of the company operates at a loss. And Nintendo makes so much on the Gameboy and Pokemon that it can lose money on the Gamecube as long as it wants. I’d be highly skeptical that the GC is going anywhere anytime soon.
And for the multiple console “issue”; I work in games, and owning more than one console is pretty rare even for developers. Based on a random sampling, (about 30 or so of my friends & coworkers), only about 5 of us have more than one, and only one person I know owns all three. Now maybe that’s not accurate, since we can use consoles at work, but I would think that game developers would be more likely than anyone else to be “hardcore.” (Geez, I hate that word.)
I doubt it’s national pride as much as just complete lack of interest. A vast majority of the biggest titles are made by Japanese developers, and Japan gets them first. Plus, they get a ton of titles that we never see in the US. I bet that most Japanese feel there’s simply no reason to get an Xbox with so much available on the PS2 and to a lesser degree, Gamecube.
The Xbox is just now getting big-name Japanese support with their deals with Sega; considering how poorly the Dreamcast did in Japan, even with all the brilliant games released for it, it remains to be seen how much of an impact that has on Japanese Xbox sales.
And it’s no joke that the Xbox is too big, physically, for Japan. They’re shipping now with the “S” controller, the smaller version intended for release in Japan, standard everywhere. The Xbox seems to me to be the quintessential American console – it’s big and loud and overpowered, which can be kind of off-putting for a culture that values miniaturized technology. That sounds like a huge generalization as I’m typing it, but it seems to be playing out that way.
Cite? Last I heard Gamecube was ahead in overall sales. I can’t find any definitive info either way.
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I don’t know if the Xbox is such a good bet.
Microsoft betting on online, Xbox may not survive otherwise.
Although Microsoft has more money in the bank than God if its Xbox division continues to bleed money the stockholders may have something to say. Microsoft can puff up its chest all it wants about how its here to stay, but that doesn’t equal profit.
Its selling 150K online kits isn’t that big of deal either seeing how its how its overall sales goal is selling 3 million Xboxs by the end of the holiday season.
Nintendo on the other hand, in spite of weak sales on Mario Sunshine and a downward revised estimate of profits is still making a profit overall on its console and has released that it is already developing its next gen platform.
And a rumor to fuel the fire: Capcom might be up for sale and both Microsoft and Nintendo may be looking at purchasing it. Selling Rare might not have been a bad idea if Nintendo was looking to raise capital. But again, this is just a rumor.
Sol Grundy,
You may be right that the best PS2 games are almost as good-looking as X-box but I suspect that the X-box has more room for improvement in the next couple of years. Also it’s not just looks but also loading times; I have heard that games like Max Payne have much shorter loading times on the X-box.
About two-console households here is what I have in mind: A middle-class family of four. Dad is in his 30’s ie. young enough to enjoy video-games. Maybe even Mom plays occasionally. Two kids aged 6-10. They all share a PS2 It does seem to me that for such a family a Nintendo at 100 dollars would look awfully attractive ,as a second console, especially for the kids.
SolGrundy:
Ah, Soul Calibur. May you rest in peace.
Re. potential, quality, etc. -
Here’s our current PS2 collection: CART Fury, Capcom vs. SNK 2, Swing Away Golf, Street Fighter EX 3, SSX (I’ve barely touched this one), Top Gear Daredevil (ditto), Beatmania IIDX 3rd Style, Beatmania IIDX 4th Style, and a few cheapie imports, including Tekken 4 and Socom: Navy Seals.
Notice one “must have” or “quality” game in the bunch?
THIS is why the X-Box is struggling in Japan. Success in Japan requires variety. You can only milk the big megahyped must-haves so much. Sometimes a gamer doesn’t want screaming quality or every byte of RAM stretched to the breaking point…sometimes we wanna relax with something a little easier, you know?
Microsoft is taking steps toward diversifying their lineup, but they’re not quite there yet. Until they have something like Beatmania IIDX, or Tokimeki Memorial, or (yes) Street Fighter EX 3, they’ll continue to struggle. Count on it.
(Jeeziz, am I really the only person who ever talks about 90% of the PS2’s lineup? I’m seriously starting to worry here…)