Console Wars: what's the latest?

Though I don’t own a console I find the whole console-war thing quite interesting both from a business and gaming standpoint. This is a perrenial topic, of course, but rightly so since the balance between the consoles is constantly changing.

Anyway some points/questions:

1)One very big factor in console purchases is “killer-app” exclusives: ie. games that you must have but you don’t get on other consoles. A console needs 3-4 of these must-have exclusives to become really attractive. Are the GC and X-Box finally reaching that critical level? Metroid Prime on GC seems to be getting rave reviews and also Splinter Cell on X-box(is this exclusive?). Of course PS2 keeps producing great exclusives as well but then it reached its critical mas of exclusives a long time ago so they are less important for it. So with all these great games for the other consoles will they begin to catch up with PS2?

2)What is the possibility of another 50 dollar drop in the near future? Will this provide a really big boost to GC/X-Box? After all at 100-150 dollars they will really tempt PS2 fans to buy them. How much will this hurt PS2 sales for non-exclusive games since PS2 games are usually the worst-looking of the three?

3)In general how profitable are the three consoles? I had read that X-box’s sell at a huge loss? Are they making enough money on software? What are the chances of GC going out of the market soon and how will that impact the console wars?

I just got back into the console world by buying a GameCube yesterday. From what I can tell, the GC and XBOX are running neck and neck for a distant second right now. Microsoft has revealed that they are losing cash by the bucketful, while the Cube has finally gotten its big games (Metroid Prime, Super Mario Sunshine, the upcoming Zelda). The Cube also has the advantage of this new add-on announced this week that will play Game Boy Advance games, Super Game Boy-style, on a TV using the Cube.

Splinter Cell is an exclusive, and may move some XBOXes off the shelves. XBOX Live will also sell a lot of units.

I bought the GameCube for Metroid Prime. I freely admit that. Games like F-Zero GC and Zelda are just going to be gravy for me, and I’m also playing Wrestlemania X8 some too.

The price drop is probably going to happen, as most gaming sites are reporting it, which usually means that the companies have already told the media but are waiting for the Thanksgiving rush to pull the trigger (pisses me off, because the news breaks just after I buy my Cube).

-brianjedi

“The price drop is probably going to happen…”
Great. I am not sure I have the time to play but this might just tempt me to buy a console. My choice would probably be PS2 but I think GC might be the big beneficiary overall. At 100 dollars it’s going to look **really/b] attractive to a lot of PS2/X-box owners especially with the release of Metroid Prime. In many ways it’s the perfect second console because of all those Nintendo exclusives.

BTW another question that I would like to put up for discussion is which console is getting the best exclusives over the next six months or so?

All a man needs is Hitman 2: Silent Assasin. Then he never has to talk to anyone again. He can just murder and murder and never need another game. Vice City sits tossed aside once you have found the glory that is virtual contract killing.

What are you looking at? Yes, I’ve been spending too much time playing that game. No. It doesn’t make me a bad person.

Video crack . . . must play . . . leave work sick . . . take out the mark . . . can’t reach . . . playstation 2 . . . if only I had my . . .

Splinter Cell is exclusive on the Xbox until the end of the year. The PC version is set to come out at the end of January with version for other consoles expected to appear soon as well.

**

I think consoles these days need more then 3-4 must have games to be successful. The Nintendo 64 system had Zelda 64, Mario 64, Goldeneye, and a few other excellent games. Unfortunately for the most part the games on the N64 were mediocre and the variety available was dismal. I’m pretty sure the PSOne beat the N64 in terms of sales and variety of games available. (I had an N64 not a PSOne.)

**

THis isn’t a dig at either the XBox or the GC. I don’t honestly think the GC or the XBox has a chance of catching up to Sony in terms of sales. They might have a chance of catching the lion’s share of the market with the next generation of console gaming though.

**

The vast majority of people do not buy multiple consoles. Those that do are typically pretty hard core gamers which aren’t a very good representation of the market in general.

I hope I’m not coming off as a PS 2 fanboy. In truth I really hope the other consoles can stay in the game because I think the competetion is ultimately better for all of us. I used to be a big fan of Nintendo, and I still am in many ways, but I felt I was burned on the N64 so my next console was the PS 2.

Marc

“The vast majority of people do not buy multiple consoles”
This was probably true of the last console war about five years ago. But two things have happened since then. First 100-150 dollars is less of a big deal than earlier because of inflation and increases in average income (at least in the US). Secondly games have become more mainstream and it’s more common for people in their 20’s and 30’s to play them. So I bet that families where more than 1 or 2 people play games have become more common possibly justifying a second console.

The fact that Nintendo targets a younger audience might play to its advantage with PS2 owning families with younger kids. So Nintendo may become the ideal second console.

All this is speculation of course but IMO quite plausible.

The prices will drop, its just a question of when. The only problem with that though is that they will all almost certainly follow suit immediately.

So, lets say that X-Box drops their pants to $150 to get that extra share. Sony will drop as well, almost immediately. Nintendo will too, as their price advantage is about the only thing that has kept them in the game as of late.

Personally, I own a PS2 and will own the other 2 as prices drop. I just haven’t bothered yet as they aren’t cheap enough as an “impulse purchase” and my PS2 will almost certainly remain my “daily” game machine, even after I buy the other 2.

XBox is already available bundled with Sega GT 2002 and Jet Set Radio Future for $199.99.

GameCube is available bundled with SuperMario Sunshine for $189.99.

It might be very soon. The net has been hot with rumours today that after Thanksgiving, but before Christmas all three major consoles will be getting a price cut.

  1. I bought an XBox 2 weeks ago, why? Halo and Munch’s Oddessy were two exclusives that I, Mrs. Prefect, and the kiddies wanted badly.

  2. For all those hemming and hawing whether to buy XBox (which will improve market share and drive more developers to XBox) I hope so. For the sake of my just having dropped $300 CAN, it can stay at that price for a bit longer :slight_smile:

  3. They are selling at a loss to gain market share, as they sell more the costs involved should drop and profit should be made

Sony is talking $50 down for Christmas. So you could get a PS2, Mem Card, and GTA:Vice City for around $200. Well worth it in my estimation.

I don’t doubt that you might see more people buying second consoles then you did in the days of Atari or SNES. I do doubt that double console homes will make any signifigant dent in the marketplace. (Not counting homes who upgrade to the next generation of consoles of course.)

**

I guess the real question is how much of a market can they realistically expect to gain? Last time I saw the sales stats the number of PS2 systems sold dwarfed the sales of the GC and XBox combined. Even when you broke it down into the current number of units being sold per month, not an average of every unit sold thus far but what was actually moving in that month, the GC and XBox were fighting for a very distant 2nd place to Sony. Sony was still selling more units then XBox and GC combined even though it had been out much longer then either system. That might not sound like a big deal but it is actually pretty signifigant.

What does this mean for now? I think as far as this generation of consoles is concerned Sony is the clear victor. It is unlikely that GC or XBox will be able to catch up in terms of sales. What about the future?

I’m most worried about Nintendo. I think they dropped the ball with the N64 and I think they’ve been disappointed with the sales of the GC. The holidays will be pretty darn important for Nintendo this year. Console shipments have been cut 15-20% and they sold their stake in Rare to Microsoft. Unless things improve for Nintendo we might see them go the way of Sega and turn into a software only company. Uh, not counting their handhelds of

Maybe their sales have been disappointing in the US, but in Europe they are neck-and-neck with Microsoft and comfortably second place (885k units as opposed to Microsoft’s 270k units) in Japan.

Reportedly Nintendo have billions in the bank from the success of Pokemon and the Gameboy. It could quite easily be argued that the Gamecube is not their prime business. Add to that this article on MSNBC (and remember what the MS there stands for):

http://www.msnbc.com/news/837095.asp?cp1=1 (Click on "Video Games)

Talking about being scared, did you know that the Xbox only sold 1,300 consoles in Japan last week as opposed to 29,300 PS2s, 42,900 GBAs and 15,800 GCs?

CyberPundit - I don’t know jack-and-the-beanstalk about the logistics of console marketing, let alone all the questionable decisions that have come down the pike (really, now, is it a good idea to have your exclusive be Dead or Alive 3?). From what I’ve seen, however, this is what I can tell you:

  1. If you expect anything in this loopy industry to make sense, prepare to be bitterly disappointed. The Dreamcast was all but unopposed for nearly two years, and it couldn’t get any momentum going. It’s a hell of a system. The earliest PS2 games had no advantage over the DC’s selection. It even had the much-vaunted internet support (heard it was really important; wouldn’t use it on a bet). Multiplayer support standard. And even the paucity of RPGs was never as huge a problem as everyone made it out to be. What the hell happened? I still can’t explain it.

Or how about the PS2. This was the system everyone had to have. This was a system that went for thousands of dollars on E-Bay. A system diehard gamers camped out for hours in front of the store, than fought a bloody battle for the tiny handful of consoles available. Oh, and you remember how hard it was to find a place that had a single PS2, right? Remember when stores would go for monthswithout a single unit, and it got snapped up the instant it was available…no surprise, since hardly anyone had one of these things? Remember when at least 90% of the games were sports, sports, sports? Say, wasn’t it RPGs that were supposedly so vital? And no one had anything bad to say. Here was a system that, for over a year and half, was praised to the moon for NOTHING. And of course, now that it’s actually worth having (we just got our modded system last week), all anyone can say is how it’s too weak and the X-Box is going to take over and blah blah blah.

Nothing makes sense. Nothing. Learn it. Remember it. It’ll save you a ton of bewilderment down the road.

  1. You know all those ultra-super-megahyped games that everyone knows the name of, right?

Do they deserve the hype? Of course…they’re the kind of games that that kind of gamer likes. What kind? Well, the kind of person who’d camp out for days to be <<THE FIRST!!>> to get a PS2.

I’ll use video game magazines as an example, because they’re on the forefront for this sort of thing. The magazines absolutely love complexity. The harder it is to even walk down the street or pull out a weapon, the better. They also love challenge, by which I mean the amount of torment and pain you have to go through to get anything done. Depth, or replay value, is also a big plus.

Here’s the problem, tho…everyone’s different. You might not like Grand Theft Auto 3. If you don’t, there’s nothing wrong with you; you just don’t go for extremely dangerous missions and having the law constantly on your back and having to learn 200 different weapons and vehicles and enemies and locations.

Any company that’s serious about making their system a success will have a wide variety of games. And make no mistake about it, tremendous processing power and 8MB of memory do not eliminate the need for as many different kinds of games as possible. The PS2 does have games other than Grand Theft Auto 3 and Tekken 4 and Metal Gear Solid 2. I know. I’ve played many of them. I’ve enjoyed many of them immensely. I’m not weird for this, and Sony’s definitely not weird for catering to my tastes.

  1. Ah, specs. Numbers. Processing power, RAM, megahertz, gigaflops, pixels.

All a colossal waste of time.

But nothing. Numbers are meaningless, and anyone who compares them needs to get a life.

Okay, I know that some systems are more powerful than others. The Super NES, for example, was clearly a better system than the NES (although flying into the teeth of Mortal Kombat-inspired paranoia badly hurt it), the PSX was much better than the Super NES, and the PS2 blew the doors of the PSX. But how, praytell, is the X-Box vastly superior to the PS2? It may be slightly more powerful, but how the hell are you even going to notice? The only way to notice is to bring up the raw numbers…and even they don’t tell the whole story. How many games use all the processing power? How much does the extra memory actually help the loading time? How much of an advantage does the more powerful system give less advanced (okay, “arcade style”) games?

The only differences are the ones you can see and hear. Period. I’m astonished by how so many players are willing to completely abandon their eyes and ears the instant they see the little spec box. Specs are for engineers and advertising agencies. Your role is far simpler.

  1. There’s a current mentality running around that if you’re a peripheral manufacturer who’s not absolutely under the thumb of the company that created the console, that gives you free reign to unleash the shoddiest, buggiest, crappiest products imaginable.

You think I’m exaggerating, right? I wish. I’ve already bought a joystick that not only took up a ton of space, but the the joystick and buttons were impossible to move, and the program feature didn’t work at all. I exchanged it for a “fighter’s stick”…which featured a stick that was stiffer than a dump truck’s and didn’t have diagonal points. (I was able to get some use out of it, thankfully.) Oh yeah, there was also the pad that would accidentally slip from cardinal points into diagonals. And my Gameshark 2 has periodic crashing problems, the only solution for which is to reset all the codes.

In each and every case, the excuse offered was “Well, it’s not a Sony product, and you never know what you’re going to get from 3rd party manufacturers.” One would think that 3rd party manufacturers wouldn’t like lost sales and bad press any more than any other company, but apparently, they just don’t care.

All I can suggest is that you always be clear on the store’s return policy. Besides that, caveat emptor.

  1. If you look hard enough, you can safely mod a PS2 to play imports. Let’s be perfectly clear on this. Sony has stemmed the tide with their byzantie regulations, but not stopped it. Where there’s a will, there’s always a way. So don’t be misled by glowing news articles about how Microsoft cracked down on a modchip manufacturer or someone’s installing tough new measures or whatever. You really can’t stop a raging river by throwing a few rocks in.

Of course, caveat emptor applies even more in this case. Even you have access to the chip, you’ll want someone trustworthy putting it in. Don’t try it yourself unless you really know what you’re doing.
Hope this helped. :smiley:

I don’t have any cites to back it up, but my instinct is that Japan’s failure to embrace the Xbox is due to the fact that its two main competitors are Japanese companies with “home field advantage”. It’s hardly surprising that an American console-maker would face an uphill battle on the home turf of Sony and Nintendo.

Anyone from Japan around who can tell us if there’s a national pride issue at stake?

Xbox in Japan is not necessecarly the best mark to it’s success, they are just releasing games like Halo in Japan so console sales will start to creep up.

In North America, Xbox Live! released 150,000 kits and almost every one has sold out in a week, indicating the demand for the box and live component.

If you want the online experience, Xbox has a better model than sony or nintendo (with xbox you pay one yearly use fee and get to play all live games, for the other two each game maker has their own servers and their own fee structure.)

Xbox is starting to get some great exclusives. Mechassult just launched and is AWESOME. Additionally, more exclusives are coming out to help it. As for Splinter Cell being released on other consoles, the PS 2 version would have to be significantly hobbled as it doesn’t have the processing/graphics power of the Xbox.

True PS 2 does have more games, because of the head start but i think given another year Xbox will be in good solid competition with them. GC is ok, but their draw is purely the nosalgia value of the nintendo only titles. If it weren’t for them they woul;dn’t have survivied this long. keep in mind the Xbox is just slightly ouselling the GC… (Xbox has 17% market share, GC 15%) even though GC has the ninto titles like Mario AND a lower price point.

PS 2 is a solid buy, Xbox is a good bet for the future. Stay away from the GC, nintendo hasn’t had a great track record since the N64.

That and the fact the X-Box is so big Japan can only hold a couple of them.

On a side note I forgot to mention, Asia sales of the Xbox will start to rise as this week the box debuted in Singapore, marking the first of the asian speaking countries outside of Japan it was laucnhed in. Singapore gamers are turned off to the Playstation 2 because it only supports Japanese games and doesn’t provide Chinese operating system functions. The Xbox launch in Singapore plays both english and japanesegames and has Chinese language support. So the expectation is a strong sales drive.