I believe that Bush is going to win.
But It won’t shock me if he doesn’t.
What surprises me is, I haven’t heard much in the media about an Electoral tie.
I personally don’t believe there will be an Electoral tie, but I admit to the possibility of it, with polls for each going up and down every day!
If both Kerry & Bush have 269 Electoral Votes, who will Congress give the nod?
Would they automatically give it to whom ever has the most popular votes, regardless of party?
Will a Republican House give it to Bush, even if he has less popular votes? How would the country react to that?
Isn’t there an ancient curse that says something like “may you live in interesting times”
I think that if something like a tie occures, a lot of people are going to be screaming for an end to the Electoral College, more so than ever before. What do you think, and why?
In a tie, almost surely the House would give the nod to Bush. This really shouldn’t cause a Constitutional crisis, as this possibility is dealth with by the Constitution.
But not enough to make the politicians do anything. It’s in the interest of the political parties and the states to keep the EC. I don’t think you could get anywhere near the 3/4 of the states needed to agree to amend the constituation to get rid of the EC.
But what if he was behind in popular votes by millions? He could win states 51-49,
but the states he lost (like California & New York) could be by large margins, 60-40. If he lost somewhat big on the popular vote, and only tied on the Electoral vote, and Congress let him retain power, wouldn’t that be as a crisis? I’m not sure the populace would stand for that, especially in light of what happened in 2000.
Are you saying that the polulace would rise up revolt, vionetly, against the government? I don’t think so. A few would protest, but I don’t see the constiutional crisis since everything in your scenario is perfectly constitutional.
I for one support the Electoral system. And I realize the possibility of this happening is absurdly low. But I like debating these “what if” type scenarios, and this year may be the closest we ever come in my life time.
I’m thinking of a case where Kerry wins a total vote of something like 54-46%, ties in the College vote, but Bush remains in power. How would this nation react to that?
I don’t think it would affect many. Presumably, if the Congressman is a Repblican, most of his constituents will expect him/her to vote for Bosh since he/she comes from an nominally Republican district. Same thing for Democrats voting for Kerry.
The term “constitutional crisis” is usually understood to mean that a situation arises that the Constitution does not contemplate, or that a branch of government wholly rejects their responsibilities under the Constitution (“John Marshall has made his decision…”)
I would argue that what the OP describes may simply be an unpoular decision or an unwelcome result, albeit perfectly Constitutional.
And I do not believe the end result would be overthrow of either the government or the Constitution.
Not sure if this was meant to be a sarcastic comment or a simple agreement, but to clear up any ambiguity: yes, they did. You’ll recall that in their day, there was no direct election of the President contemplated: state legislatures would select the Electors, who would then elect a President and Vice-President. A tie in that body would then lead into the House choosing the President and the Senate choosing the Vice-president.
Highly unlikely, IMHO. First, because the American voting public has no memory – and those Congresspersons would not face re-election until two years later. Heck, elected officials commit major crimes and the public forgets about it come election time.
We also have the evidence of the last election, where the popular vote and the electoral vote did not coincide. Was there an outcry? Did the Republicans get voted out of office in the 2002 elections? Not at all. To the contrary, they increased their majority. Is there even a reform movement to amend the electoral process, to prevent a similar occurance? Not at all. Yeah, OK, there’s some hoop-de-doo about the mechanics and technicalities of the voting process, but that’s focusing on the gnat and ignoring the mote.
See, I would think that both parties would find that result (different winner of popular vote and electoral vote) to be alarming. Yes, the Republicans made out well last time, but next time, what if it were reversed? Would the Republicans be happy winning a popular election but losing the electoral vote? So I would think this would be an issue that both parties could agree on, but not a chance. No one seems to care a hoot.
In short, the line “it’s the law” seems to cow Americans into submission. No, there will be no outcry, we’ll go along like sheep to the slaughter.
I can’t believe that an administrator of this board would engage in such inflammatory and extreme rhetoric. We will go like swine to the slaughter, not sheep.
Dex seems to be having metaphor problems today. It should also be “gnat and camel” or “mote and beam” unless he was intentionally trying to lighten the mood…
