I disagree completely. A BIG factor in recruiting for al-Qaida was the notion that they could win. The perception in the Middle East was that America was a paper tiger. Many Islamic nutbars honestly believed that all they had to do was bloody America’s nose a little, and the hollow shell of the imperialists would collapse from their own weakness and they would turn tail and run home. The conventional wisdom, even among many in the west, was that America had no stomach for casualties, and was unable to do hard things. It fought from the air, not on the ground. That sort of thing.
And there was some justification for this thinking. When the Beirut barracks were bombed, the U.S. response was to pack up and leave. When dead U.S. soldiers were dragged through the streets of Somalia, the U.S. response was to pack up and leave. Events like this had a lot to do with inflaming Islamist terror. This war is going to cause a lot of re-thinking about that perception.
One of Bin Laden’s favorite recruiting statements was, “When people see a weak horse and a strong horse, they will naturally choose the strong horse”. That this phrase resonated with the people in the Middle East indicated that they saw the U.S. as the weak horse. The smashing of the Iraq army and the obliteration of all Fedayeen who dared to attack them have shown people who’s the strongest horse on the block.
But even if more individuals decide to take up arms against America, a lot of governments that have supported them are going to be doing a lot of hard thinking over the next little while.
And then there’s the direct benefit of removing Saddam’s support for terror, which was not insubstantial. There are about 700 Ansar al-Islam terrorists dead in the north now, their training camps and recruitment centers smashed. Palestinian terrorists will no longer get training In Iraq, and their families will no longer get $25,000 in blood money from Saddam.
Saddam was a hero to many of these terrorists. The Palestinians loved him. Bin Laden fought for him (read his first fatwa). Terrorist supporters saw Iraq as a state that could magnify their power and offer asylum if the heat got too high. Iraq was a lightning rod.
And now there are millions of Iraqis who, if the U.S. plays the reconstruction right, will be very moderate. Add that to the increasing moderation of Iran, Jordan, and some other Arab countries, and history may show this as a turning point, the start of the era of modernization and democratization in the Middle East.
And there is one more HUGE effect from this war - intelligence. The U.S. now possesses the records of a government at the center of the terror universe. Totalitarian governments are obsessive bookkeepers, as everyone covers their ass. Iraq is an absolute treasure trove of intelligence. From now on in, when the U.S. negotiates with Syria, or Yemen, or Pakistan, or Iran, or Libya, or the PLO, the people across the table will have to wonder what do they know???. And the answer will be ‘a LOT’.
The war on terror just got a lot easier to fight.