Coronavirus accelerating

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

[URL=“article”]https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-virus-death-toll-posts-grim-record-rise-passes-400/ar-BBZCynr

The gist is that there is an increase in the rate of increase of the death toll.
[URL=“article”]https://seekingalpha.com/article/4320983-whatever-not-investment

With regard to changes in public health risks, it may be useful to monitor the 5-day rate of expansion, currently running about 1.5x daily, along with the location of cases and mortality rate (fatalities/cases). Exclude the current date as many cases are typically added at end-of-day.

Ideally, the expansion rate will slow markedly in the days and weeks ahead.

he investment literature I read suggested a virus would mutate before it could spread too many multiple generations of itself, and so only something really infectious could spread super duper far and wide, and so look for the death rate to decelerate to show that the thing is just burning itself out.

Not there yet judging by this article.

[Broomstick]

I’m not sure I’d look to a financial investor for information or advice about a viral epidemic.

That said, an increase in cases is sort of normal at this point in the spread of a new illness. It’s not going to peak for awhile.

[kanicbird]

Does this seem to anyone else is we are in the Pandemic computer game with this?

[wevets]

@Try2B_Comprehensive

The gist is that there is an increase in the rate of increase of the death toll.

Preliminary measurements of the fatality rates are more likely to be inaccurate than accurate enough to measure changes in the rate over a matter of weeks.

You also don’t need the virus to mutate to burn itself out. If you imagine the virus like any other operation that consumes raw materials, and infection-vulnerable people as the raw materials, the epidemic burns out when it runs out of infection-vulnerable people regardless of whether the operation changes. It can burn itself out given its initial characteristics.
Do not go to investors for advice on biology, likewise do not go to biologists for advice on investing.

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

I am in a place where some people are telling me"The impeachment is not getting high ratings and so they are hyping the virus to grab attention." Well maybe, but the effect on financial markets is probably not an aspect of this game.

Shrug. I am seeing this story register in the financial news. It suggests to me it is not just a matter of spin, even if these guys aren’t top doctors. I am open to sharper analysis… I mean, there are travel bans worldwide against China, the virus is showing up in new countries almost every day. It definitely does seem to be accelerating.

[wevets]

@Try2B_Comprehensive

I am in a place where some people are telling me"The impeachment is not getting high ratings and so they are hyping the virus to grab attention." Well maybe, but the effect on financial markets is probably not an aspect of this game.

These people sound like conspiracy theorists; they may as well be wearing tinfoil hats. I would not pay them much attention if I had a choice.

Shrug. I am seeing this story register in the financial news. It suggests to me it is not just a matter of spin, even if these guys aren’t top doctors. I am open to sharper analysis… I mean, there are travel bans worldwide against China, the virus is showing up in new countries almost every day. It definitely does seem to be accelerating.

Your contention was not that it was accelerating, it was that you could* look at the derivative of the mortality rate and determine the trend*. I replied that you can’t trust that the measurement of the mortality rate is accurate so early.

There’s also some unsupported fluff about mutation in there. Yes viruses do mutate, but we know so little about this one so far that it’s pointless to speculate on whether the virus will mutate in a particular way when we don’t know a lot about the basic characteristics of the virus in its current form.

Again, there are medical and public health sources you could look at: https://www.statnews.com/

Looking at investing articles for information seems to be a poor strategy.

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

From your link:

On the bright side, if a coronavirus infects enough people regularly there will be greater business incentive to develop a vaccine and other countermeasures. That never happened with SARS because it died out, leaving no market for such products.

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

I was going to update this on Wed when we were at about 20,000 cases and 400 deaths. Didn’t get around to it.

Didn’t get around to it the next day either, when it was 28,000 cases and 460 deaths.

This morning, according to this, we’re at 34,967 cases and 724 deaths, with 2410 “recoveries” claimed.

My numbers have come from different sources, so yeah, maybe the figures are distorted. Still, whether it is actually accelerating or not, the number of cases and deaths are on track to double in less than a week. It is present in 28 countries, though overwhelmingly confined to China.

Call it mundane and pointless to view it though the finance news, dopers, but I consider it a valid way to gauge the impact of it. [navirus-live-updates-us-citizen-dies-in-wuhan.html"]Here](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/08/coro
[QUOTE) is a live update article out of CNBC. It’s worth a click just for the photo at the top out of Singapore: “NOTICE Temporarily out of stocks. Masks. Hand sanitizers. Thermometers.” It’s a little :eek:

The effect of the new coronavirus on the Italian economy is hard to assess and a significant impact cannot be ruled out, the Bank of Italy warned on Saturday.

Addressing the annual Assiom-Forex conference of Italian financial market participants, Governor Ignazio Visco said the impact, which the central bank is currently trying to assess, may be temporary and limited to “a few decimal points” of aggregate demand growth.

However, “bigger effects cannot be ruled out,” he said.

Uh, that’s Italy. They have a whole 3 cases as of this morning.

[FloatyGimpy]

This is stressing me out a bit. Not because I’m worried about getting it, but because I’m traveling internationally and I’m worried about flights being canceled. I’m not going anywhere near Asia though, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed. I’ll also be washing my hands a lot!

[Dewey_Finn]

For some perspective, the CDC estimates that there have been 12-30,000 deaths due to the regular seasonal influenza. And there’s a vaccine for that, which some seem OK with not getting. (My point is don’t freak out too much.)

[Riemann]

@Dewey_Finn

For some perspective, the CDC estimates that there have been 12-30,000 deaths due to the regular seasonal influenza. And there’s a vaccine for that, which some seem OK with not getting. (My point is don’t freak out too much.)

But citing the total number of deaths doesn’t address the concerns here. This is is the number of deaths when a very large number of people is exposed to flu. The concern here is what might happen in the worst-case scenario if the coronavirus spread continues unchecked and a similarly large number of people are exposed.

[Magiver]

@Broomstick

I’m not sure I’d look to a financial investor for information or advice about a viral epidemic.

Actually, when you think about it, that’s exactly the skill-sets involved in the prediction of how it will spread. Financial analysis involves a great deal of statistical work and is highly focused on the mathematical skills of trend predictions.

[Magiver]

@Dewey_Finn

For some perspective, the CDC estimates that there have been 12-30,000 deaths due to the regular seasonal influenza. And there’s a vaccine for that, which some seem OK with not getting. (My point is don’t freak out too much.)

And for some perspective on the perspective the CDC is guessing wildly if the numbers are between 12 and 30. That’s a factor of 3. It’s also based on a great number of elderly who are in their declining years biologically. Their bodies have weakened as a matter of inevitability. At what point do we say they died of cancer or a broken hip when we know, statistically, it was the natural decline of their bio-system.

This is different. The time line suggests it spreads quickly enough to warrant public action. It’s a big frickin deal to shut down airports and trains. This is how serious China has taken it and yet it’s still spreading within the area of confinement where the streets are virtually empty.

Few countries have the political power limit the movement of their citizens. Not all countries have the medical infrastructure to deal with. At some point it’s likely to hit a large population that doesn’t have the assets to deal with it.

Look at how quickly an industrial nation with UHC like the UK was affected with a flu epidemic. I don’t think there is the political will to do what China is doing to stop the progression which means it’s going to spread much faster.

Now apply that to an underdeveloped nation like India where raw sewage is a way of life in many places.

[ftg]

Also, there are 480,000 deaths per year in the US due to smoking. That’s 1300 deaths per day. The equivalent of 4 big passenger jets going down every day. And there’s a vaccine for that, it’s called Don’t Ever Smoke. There is comfort in knowing that one can do a pretty good job not ending up in that statistical pool.

With the flu, a lot of us take precautions. In particular, getting a vaccination every year. (And there’s eating right, exercising, etc.) Plus a lot of people tend to have a bit of immunity to the latest variations. Since a lot of deaths from flu are due to also getting pneumonia once your defenses are down, the shot for that also helps.

But with this new bug, the options are a lot more limited. And since it’s entirely new one can’t really count on previous exposure limiting it a little bit.

In short: the stats on flu are about as relevant as the stats on smoking.

[Broomstick]

@Try2B_Comprehensive

This morning, according to this, we’re at 34,967 cases and 724 deaths, with 2410 “recoveries” claimed.

Why do you put recoveries in scare quotes? Do you doubt that it is possible to recover from this virus?

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

Let’s go back in time to the close of the markets on Friday:
Dow drops more than 250 points, snaps 4-day winning streak amid coronavirus worries

Stocks fell on Friday as worries over the coronavirus’ impact on the Chinese economy outweighed the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 277.26 points lower, or nearly 1%, to 29,102.51. The S&P 500 dipped 0.5% to 3,327.71. The Nasdaq Composite also slid 0.5% to close at 9,520.51. Those losses snapped a four-day winning streak for the major average. Still, stocks notched strong weekly gains despite Friday’s losses.

China’s National Health Commission on Friday confirmed 31,131 cases of the deadly pneumonia-like virus in the country, with 636 deaths. These numbers have stoked worries about how China’s economy — the second-largest in the world — will be affected. Chinese economic slowed down last year to 6.1% from 6.8% in 2018.

“China is really slowing and that’s worrying people for sure,” said Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI, on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “People are not going out. They are not shopping, and that’s what’s hurting particularly China.” Hyman added he sees 0% growth for the Chinese economy this quarter.

So. The market drops 1% all the time. To slap ‘coronavirus fears’ onto it as the cause is… I don’t know? I can’t say I know how a claim like that is backed up. If someone wanted to say that The Media were hyping the coronavirus by blaming one day of stock drop on it, I might have to take them seriously.

But we know it is showing up in other financial news. If fearful behavior is really knocking 6+% off of China’s economic growth, that’s gonna make some ripples.

@Broomstick

Why do you put recoveries in scare quotes? Do you doubt that it is possible to recover from this virus?

No, I was just using their language.

[Broomstick]

@Riemann

But citing the total number of deaths doesn’t address the concerns here. This is is the number of deaths when a very large number of people is exposed to flu. The concern here is what might happen in the worst-case scenario if the coronavirus spread continues unchecked and a similarly large number of people are exposed.

OK, let’s imagine the absolute worst-case scenario and get it out of the way: the entire world catches this disease with about a 2.5% fatality rate. That would be 150,000,000 deceased. Which is a huge and tragic number, three times how many people WWII killed.

And 7,350,000,000 will NOT die from the virus.

This is not going to end civilization or The World As We Know It. It could be really unpleasant, uncomfortable and tragic but 98% of people will survive and get through it. Nowhere near something like the Medieval Black Death or a smallpox pandemic. Which humanity and civilization has also survived.

Here’s the good news: It almost certainly won’t be that bad.

There. You’ve got that scenario considered and out of the way. You may now return to the current situation which is much less dire. Yes, 30,000+ are infected and 700+ dead and it’s a terrible tragedy for Wuhan and Hubei, and to lesser extent the rest of China. But it’s not a global pandemic this afternoon. Governments and various agencies and even private companies are taking steps to contain the virus and make sure it doesn’t become a pandemic and those are all good things.

If anyone, personally, is feeling truly anxious about this then I’d suggest laying in sufficient supplies to shelter in place for a couple weeks (which will also be useful in the event of other events/emergencies so not a bad thing to have in general), getting enough sleep, and practicing good hygiene like frequent hand washing. Those steps will protect you not only against this virus - which, if you’re not in China is unlikely to affect you personally - but also provide some protection against the far more widespread colds and flus.

@Magiver

This is different. The time line suggests it spreads quickly enough to warrant public action. It’s a big frickin deal to shut down airports and trains. This is how serious China has taken it and yet it’s still spreading within the area of confinement where the streets are virtually empty.

If you quarantine and area or a ship or a town it is actually pretty typical for infections to increase within the quarantine area for a time. If it’s not spreading but rather the cases are diminishing that’s a sign the disease is “burning” itself out and quarantine can be lifted soon.

A lot of people were probably infected a week or two ago and either not showing symptoms yet or just starting to. Some people probably either had minor illness that was overlooked or will only suffer mild or no symptoms. So cases will increase for a time before leveling off then starting to drop.

@Magiver

Few countries have the political power limit the movement of their citizens. Not all countries have the medical infrastructure to deal with. At some point it’s likely to hit a large population that doesn’t have the assets to deal with it.

I’m more concerned with that happening in an impoverished nation in, say, Africa or, yes, India, than in the “West”, the industrialized, wealthy nations.

[Hari_Seldon]

The thing that scares me about this virus is that people are contagious before they have any symptoms. This is going to make effective quarantine impossible. If it really turns into a global pandemic, the medical system will be overwhelmed and people who catch it will be on their own.

Its contagion rate and its ability to be contagious before symptoms appear are compatible with the many corona viruses we call the common cold. Except that people don’t die from colds. I read somewhere that the death rate from flu is the order of 0.1% or about 4% of this virus.

[Voyager]

@Broomstick

OK, let’s imagine the absolute worst-case scenario and get it out of the way: the entire world catches this disease with about a 2.5% fatality rate. That would be 150,000,000 deceased. Which is a huge and tragic number, three times how many people WWII killed.

It appears that the deaths primarily are for the older, unlike the 1918 epidemic which affected younger, stronger people more - which is why it was so deadly in military camps.
Even if your worst case number is correct, while it would be horrible it might reduce the graying population problem. Think of the benefits for Social Security and Medicare in the US.
I say this as a member of the graying population. There is a silver lining in every mushroom cloud.

[DummyGladHands]

If what I am reading as to this being caused by the Chinese eating wildlife to the point that China has halted the importation and sale of wild animals, then if this epidemic has a good side (does any?), well, then I am OK with it.