How many pro wrestlers live past 60? So many die prematurely as it is!
The numbers should be reported in 9/11s.
CMC fnord!
Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, is using ICU admissions and new intubations as a possible leading indicator. He says that 80% of people who go on ventilators will not go off and will eventually die. So if there are a number of new intubations, then in the neighborhood of 10-15 days later, the death stats shows that. Here’s his daily briefing for April 15, 2020, where he goes over the numbers that he does every day. (The stats start at the beginning.) He does one every day so you could probably go back and see if his numbers were predictive.
As he says, it’s too early to tell if it’s a trend, but in New York, the new intubations and ICU admissions are down for the last few days. They’re hoping that this means that there’s a leveling off of the infection due to social distancing.
Cuomo is very clear to point out that now is not the time to relax the restrictions, just as they may be starting to work. But if it’s the beginning of a trend, it may signal some good news.
I don’t know if those stats are available for anywhere but New York. He gives those stats in his daily briefings and has since the shelter in place regulations started. But they’re only for New York.
Because you’re right, the new cases statistic doesn’t say much.
Another day with zero new cases in Taiwan. Zip. NThis is the second day this week with zero, with Tuesday also free from new cases.
Over the last 10 days, there have been 24 new cases bringing, the total to 395 cases.
Out of Taiwan’s total count of 395 cases, 340 were imported from abroad and 55 were contracted locally. Of the confirmed cases, six have succumbed to the disease, while 155 have been released from hospital isolation.
The number of active cases continues to drop at 252. The curve looks good!
In other news. the average number of passengers at the Taoyuan International Airport hit a low of 669, with zero passengers at Terminal One. Last year, there was a daily average of 133,400 passengers going through the airport.
Well, if someone isn’t wearing trousers I would certainly hope they are wearing pants!
As a slight tangent: I find that when I’m at home what little fashion sense I have is even more impaired. I find myself wearing random bits in clashing colors that would probably make your eyes bleed because, who cares? There’s no one there to see me. But then, I am colorblind…
What are they doing that is being so successful? Do you think it is going to be sustainable indefinitely?
If someone has symptoms, how do they trace the contacts of that person?
AIUI, everyone is issued a card for Taiwan’s universal healthcare system. According to the Wikipedia article, ‘Taiwan’s single-payer insurer monitors standards, use and quality of treatment for diagnosis by requiring the providers to submit a full report every 24 hours.’ So it seems that Taiwan has a good handle on who is using the system, and why. I don’t know how they trace contacts. I assume the do it the same way we do: Ask the person where he or she has been, and with whom they’ve had contact. Under Taiwan’s system, if someone visits a doctor, and they’re presenting symptoms, then it would be easier to connect the dots.
I think this is what led me to my initial optimism. However, New York City (and its “suburbs” like New Jersey and Connecticut) has had a disproportionately horrible time these last few weeks (month+?) that any improvement in that region makes stats for the whole United States appear to show improvement. The truth that I believe I found was that most of the rest of the country continues along the upward, leading edge of the curve.
Projecting into the future – using this information to inform our ongoing decisions – is impaired by the death stats lagging avoidable harm (aka unnecessary new infections) by several weeks. If all hospitals were as closely orchestrated as those in NYC, stats with less lag (new presumptive infections, new confirmed infections, new hospitalizations, new ICU patients, new intubations, etc.) would be more useful, but for better or worse they are not so homogeneous.
Still: things may be getting worse, but they are not as bad as they could be. Our sacrifices have made things less bad. And if you had asked me whether my local, national, or global society would have been willing to make such sacrifices four months ago, I would not have thought it possible. So I do find reason for optimism, only not in the way I had sought.
On an unrelated note, I feel I might not be communicating very clearly because I find it difficult to separate the profound despair represented in and implied by these statistics from the rational data that can help all of us make choices that minimize future difficulties. As a no-longer-lurker, I want to say that I am grateful for you folks in these fora [joke intended] and this thread for striving toward that kind of rational discussion, disagreements included.
I’m not an expert, but several things seem very important. First of all, they jumped on it really quickly. They had health inspectors on planes from Hunan starting December 31 last year.
It never had a chance to go underground. They do extensive interviews with anyone who is sick, and then quarantine those people.
They put peoples immigration records and tied them together with their medical history, so anytime somebody has a fever or other symptoms and goes to the doctor and the doctor can verify if they have been out of the country.
They have been very strict about quarantining people who have come back from overseas, or who was in contact with somebody who is sick.
They fine you a large amount of money if you are in quarantine and leave the house.
We are not in lockdown or shelter in place. Most Taiwanese are going to work although any gatherings of large numbers of people have been canceled. They close the schools for a couple of weeks back in February, but the schools have been reopened.
As I indicated in my post, They have been able to keep on top of things by keeping everyone out of Taiwan.
We are keeping our fingers crossed because it could get bad anytime. They do seem to be doing the right things.
TokyoBayer: Are you in Taiwan? If so, can you correct or enhance my limited understanding of the Taiwanese healthcare system?
Does anyone know why the US death number on Worldometer suddenly jumped by 5000? It was at 28,000ish when I went to bed last night, and now it’s at 33,000ish.
New York’s number jumped, I don’t know if it’s a mistake or not. Right now, NY has over 800 deaths per million people. That means almost 1 in 1000 people have died from COVID-19 in NY state. That is alarming.
New York decided to include nursing home patients who had symptoms and died but were not formally tested. This added about 3700 cases.
New York decided to include nursing home patients who had symptoms and died but were not formally tested. This added about 3700 cases.
psychobunny is mostly correct: there have been adjustments to the way they are counting and classifying.
If you scroll past the numbers on WoM, they link to news articles and other relevant things; one of them today is NOTE: Change in US Data.
One of the people Trump has appointed to the panel on restarting sports is Vince McMahon.
Note to Don and Ron: Pro wrestling is not a sport! It’s all fake. Like The Apprentice.
Thanks for that explanation Bo.
I want to note that I posted this news yesterday evening (post #2392). But you know, that was yesterday; no one reads yesterday’s news.
One of the people Trump has appointed to the panel on restarting sports is Vince McMahon.
Note to Don and Ron: Pro wrestling is not a sport! It’s all fake. Like The Apprentice.
Today in Austria:
[ul]
[li] Best news of the day: In Austria the coronavirus reproduction factor has finally sunk below 1, to 0.65.[/li]
[li] The International Monetary Fund has published reports and projections of unemployment rates in various countries for 2019 through 2021. Austria had an average unemployment rate of 4.5% in 2019, will likely see this rise to 5.5% in 2020, and then see a drop in 2021 to 5.0%. This is significantly better than the EU average (7.6% for 2019, 10.4% for 2020, 8.9% for 2021) and also many other developed countries (for example, the USA, with 3.7% for 2019, 10.4% for 2020, and 9.1% for 2021).[/li]
[li] Universities have announced plans to hold their final exams online. Alternative arrangements will be made for students who for whatever reason cannot use the online system.[/li]
[li] Austria’s minister for the economy has announced a new €100 million aid package for start-ups. She also reported on a new venture capital fund for start-ups, of which €50 million in funding will come from the government and the rest from third parties.[/li]
[li] Rollout of antibody tests is being delayed until the government checks their quality and accuracy. It’s estimated that these will be made available to certain occupational groups around the end of April or beginning of May.[/li]
[li] Current statistics: 14,451 confirmed infections, 410 deaths, 8986 recovered. [/li][/ul]
How can they know this with such accuracy?