Germany is cautiously reopening its schools. So is Denmark. I think crowds, concerts and cocktails are still verboten, though.
I presume the Canuck government will be watching. Canada is divided into a national government, powerful provincial governments and city governments. They spent a lot of time sniping at each other. For the most part, this has stopped due to a crisis. But now, Alberta has criticized the federal doctor in charge. She hasn’t been perfect. But now is not the time.
Specifically, Alberta has done a better job than other provinces of testing. It wants to ignore the federal restrictions on using provisional treatments if other respected countries deem they work. It’s silly because there would be medical pressure to use any new efficacious treatment and one would assume little delay in approval.
Aye but if you tell a cat to do what it’s about to do already, it sure does look like you’re ordering the cat around.
Yes, despite the user name, I’m in Taiwan.
The single payer heath system is good, and immediately they implemented steps to make it more effective for fighting Covid.
We all have a IC embedded health system card. It allows each doctor to look at our medical records from other doctors.
They have a centralized task force here. Not only do all doctors have to report suspicious systems, all schools have to take the temperature of everyone entering the school as well as all students, teachers and staff during the day. Any fever is reported to the Health Ministry, as well as all absences due to illness. These are monitored. So when my daughter had a moderate fever last Friday, it was known to the national government by Saturday morning. The doctor’s office she visited would have reported her visit and it’s monitored that the symptoms went away. So we were not contacted and she wasn’t tested. People who continue to have symptoms are tested and further followed up, although a number of people have not been tested or quarantined quickly enough.
Having travel records available to the doctors has helped, as they find – not surprise here – that people will lie to their doctors.
Now all people coming back from overseas (essentially there are no visitors allowed) are subjected to monitored isolation.
While having a national health system didn’t protect many places, it has helped us because people can afford to go to the doctor and don’t need to wait until it’s critical.
So…94% of 4800 crew is about 4500 tested.
600 of that 4500 tested positive - 13% of a closed group contracted the disease
60% of the 600 who tested positive were asymptomatic, for 360 sailors.
360 out of 4500 tested were “silent carriers” of the disease - 8% of the closed test group.
Damn, that’s scary.
But isn’t the fact that a large chunk of the people who have this disease are asymptomatic 1) something we already knew; and 2) basically good news, since it means the fatality / serious illness rate is significantly lower than we might think from observing symptomatic cases alone?
Bear in mind that the sample set from the USS Theodore Roosevelt skews quite young and (usually) quite healthy. The average age for the USN overall is about 24 - I might be inclined to add a couple of years to the average because of the aircrew, but not more than that.
Quick internet search shows the median age of the US is 37.9 years. I think it’s also fair to assume that the average American is less healthy than the average serviceman.
Therefore, for a closed group, that’s about the best sort of results we can hope for, in a situation where social distancing is problematic at best. With some people agitating to “open up” the economy, before any vaccination is available, much less widespread testing, strikes me being fairly similar.
I wonder if any such data is available for such ships as the Diamond Princess and the Ruby Princess? Such a group would be, I’m fairly sure, considerably older, and probably less healthy to boot.
It’s not good news for ending the lockdown. If there are lots of asymptomatic infected people running around, you have to maintain the current style of precautions until most people have been tested.
We knew there were a significant number of asymptomatic carriers, but I haven’t seen estimates anywhere close to 60%.
And it is decidedly not good news. We already know that the CFR is high enough to overwhelm hospitals and outweigh other causes of death, so knowing the exact number isn’t too important. But a high % of asymptomatic carriers will make it much tougher to track down and suppress any outbreaks.
In keeping with the CDC’s nomenclature:
2,182,823 total cases
145,551 dead
547,589 recovered
In the US:
678,144 total cases
34,641 dead
57,754 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Holy crap, is that over six thousand in one day? (In the US, I mean.)
No, the stats have been updated to reflect non-hospital deaths in New York since the start of the epedemic. So they should have been a bit higher all along, and now they’re (closer to) right
Well, the R was less than 1, since there were more asymptomatics than those with symptoms. If an asymptomatic infects another person who also turns out to be asymptomatic, I guess I am not as worried about those cases.
I have read everything I can about the virus, have made various estimates. I take it seriously. I don’t want to contact people with the virus if I can. But if I do, I am grateful for the good chance it won’t be so bad for me. Would it be better otherwise?
I never mentioned how accurate the number was, and I haven’t seen this reported either. Reproduction numbers in large populations are always estimates derived through mathematical modelling. I have no idea what factors and calculations are used in Austria’s model, nor whether these are different (or better or worse in terms of predictive power) than those used in other countries.
For the third day this week there are no new cases in Taiwan. Of the 395 cases, 166 have recovered so the number is active cases continues to decline.
A Taiwanese who returned from Beijing did not return to his home where he was to stay in isolation. He also reported an incorrect cell number. They were unable to locate him until the police finally found him in a net cafe where he had been holing up.
The authorities believe these actions were intentional so he hav been fined US$33,000.
He has property in his name so the authorities said that will be held if he fails to pay. His father had talked to the media and claims it’s all a little misunderstanding.
Procedures have changed at the airport so that people have to receive a text message before they are allowed through customs.
No? This study found an even higher proportion of people who were asymptomatic but tested positive among pregnant women in New York. A few of them went on to develop symptoms later, but most didn’t.
Yeah - this kinda highlights the different perspectives possible. I agree w/ FP, that a condition that is largely asymptomatic - espec in the confined environment of a ship - is a relevant factor in determining the costs to incur for what type of benefit.
Virginia, or Texas?
Maybe someone should start a thread about that. 
