Also, it depends on which curve you are talking about. Even if you flatten the curve of new infections, the curve of new deaths could continue rise for some time, since the people who died will have contracted the disease some days or weeks earlier.
The King has lifter the 24-hour curfew. I am at the office for the first time this month. On the other hand, nobody else showed up. School is closed until the end of Ramadan. Having been at my desk for ninety minutes, I have discovered work impacts on my naps.
Another day of zero new infections in Taiwan, for the fourth time this month and without a domestic transmission for 14 days straight. There have been 281 patients who have recovered and the current number of active cases is at 148.
Am I remembering wrong that they not too long ago lowered best case scenario US deaths from a couple of hundred thousand to 60 thousand? Because we are hitting 60 in the next couple of days.
Here in Ohio, the IHME estimate back in March was leveling off at over 2000 dead. Two weeks ago that was down to 522, and now it’s back up to 808. Still well within the predicted margin but sadly not as good as hoped.
IHME isn’t a very good model. I recommend looking at the FiveThirtyEight pandemic modeling survey results and using that to get a sense for where things are more likely to land.
The Premier has released guidelines on how and when to open things up:
Source: CBC report that explains the criteria for reopening, and links to the complete guidelines document.
In other news…
I’ve been getting a weekly newsletter from my work. As some may know, I was laid off on March 20th. Work has always said that they will be calling us back when customer orders start appearing again. The place was running three shifts a day, 24/7 almost, before the shutdown. I am on afternoon shift; I suspect that day shift (7:00 to 15:00) will be called back first, then afternoon shift (15:00 to 23:00), then midnight shift (23:00 to 7:00).
Anyways, the latest newsletter goes into the changes at work, including:
[ul]
[li]We have to take our temperature and fill out a questionnaire each day before going to work.[/li][li]They have staggered shift change times and break times so that lunchrooms are not as crowded at any one time.[/li][li]They have built more entrances and exits to reduce crowding at the entryways.[/li][li]There are now markings to indicate physical distancing at lunchroom tables, line-up areas for time clocks, etc.[/li][li]Workstations now have barriers between them. [/li](Given the arrangement of and movement required at some of the workstations, I am not sure how that will be possible, but we’ll see.)
[li]We will evidently be wearing masks on the production floor.[/li][li]No more lockers in the changerooms. [/li](No big deal for me; it was always a bit of a free-for-all getting one, and I never actually had one.)
[li]No more use of fridges in the lunchrooms. We will have to leave our lunches in our cars or take them to our workstations. [/li](I was already bringing a bag containing all the things I might need on the floor, plus a drink, a sweater, etc, so little difference for me. My lunch was always simple things that didn’t have to be cooked or warmed up. But I can see how it might affect many people, especially ones who are used to bringing frozen food and letting it thaw before microwaving it.)
[li]Speaking of which… we will be allowed to use the microwaves, but we have to clean them after each use.[/li][/ul]
They are referring to this as ‘the return to the new normal’. There is an app which formerly mostly provided newsletters and other such corporate info; not that many people had it. The daily screening questionnaire is now through this app, and we are encouraged to download it. Or you can fill in a form at the entrance to the plant.
