In April, TeleTracking received a $10.2 million non-competitive contract from HHS to power the agency’s COVID-19 data tracking system, HHS Protect
Britains NHS (or part of it, or an associated body), is also using TeleTracking for COVID-19 data, from about the same time.
As is common for this kind of private health database, researchers and administrators can “access” the data. That is, access is controlled and permitted by contracts.
Interesting note: Oracle “donated” it’s COVID-19 online platform to the HHS. Dunno if teletracking runs on Oracle, or if Oracle just missed out on a big customer.
There are some obvious arguments for reforming the hospital utilization reporting system, which appears to have been piggy-backing on a safety reporting system, but it’s the nature of big IT projects, and big Health projects, and big Database projects, that they are broken on implementation, and sometimes never work at all. I wouldn’t personally recommend a shift like this in the middle of an epidemic (and, in case I was too even handed above to make it clear, I hate third-party private health databases anyway). But some software projects actually are well managed and effective, and it’s too early to say how this will affect the American health system after the teething problems are worked out.
Last estimate from the CDC, based on serology studies, was ten times higher. When evaluated. T-cell studies demonstrating past infections with negative serology suggest the number could be twice again. But based on small numbers studied.
It was a chart from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control showing mortality rates. It showed a subset of countries - most countries with low mortality rates weren’t included. And even among the ones that were, some had better rates than the U.S. despite what Trump pretended it showed.
U.S. cases just reached 4 million by worldometers numbers. It’s only a bit over six weeks since we passed 2 million. The total world count will get to 15 million in the next half hour or so.
10x the verified positives is inline with other studies I’ve seen from around the world. Does this imply the US has had ~40,000,000 infections? At what point does the linear relationship no longer hold?
Well it isn’t certain it applies now. But yes that is what it implies.
It is based on using antibody positivity as a proxy for infection based on comparable rates many weeks back. It is now clear that some significant number have had infections without having antibody positivity, at least by the point of being tested, such that serology based estimations could dramatically underestimate the number that have been infected, maybe by half. And there is the question of whether the ratio stays constant as testing has increased.
Which doesn’t actually contradict what Fauci says. Young people may believe themselves at a higher than actual risk, and still judge that risk to be low—after all, younger people tend to be less risk averse. So a young person might well think, well, 2% risk of death if I get infected, that’s good enough, and take their chances, while an older person might be sufficiently deterred by the perceived 1% risk to alter their behavior.
In other news, according to the worldometers site, US deaths exceeded 1,000 for the first time since June 9th yesterday. However, looking at the daily case numbers, there’s been a significant flattening since July 17th, so it seems like shifting authority for data collection away from the CDC to the White House is successful in stemming the tide of new cases, so that’s some good news right there!
Following a three-digit rise in coronavirus cases, the government has reinstituted the rules on wearing face coverings in public. As of Friday, it will once again be mandatory to wear masks (or similar gear) in all supermarkets, shops, banks, post offices, medical facilities, government offices, etc. Fines for noncompliance range from €50 to €3600. Public opinion polls from earlier this month already showed majority support for the reintroduction of face covering rules.
The government is also introducing new restrictions on travellers entering Austria from high-risk areas, including the USA and the western Balkans. As of Friday, such travellers will not be allowed to enter the country without a negative coronavirus test from a certified laboratory.
The EU has agreed on a €1.8 trillion coronavirus aid deal, of which Austria will receive €3.7 billion.
Very interesting. 80,000,000 already infected would be ~27% of the US population. In the context of this article that would seem to be encouraging news.
However, as you said, the question of how reasonable it is to assume 10x-20x real infections as confirmed cases increases isn’t settled.
