The AP has posted a primer of sorts on the virus.
I won’t quote the whole article; these are the subjects covered:
WHAT IS THE NEW VIRUS?
HOW FAST IS THE OUTBREAK GROWING?
IS QUARANTINE WORKING?
COULD THE VIRUS BE SPREADING SILENTLY IN OTHER PLACES?
HOW DOES INFECTION SPREAD?
WHAT ABOUT TREATMENTS AND VACCINES?
69,256 confirmed infected
1,669 dead
9,626 recovered
Those people who keep monitoring and posting COVID-19 deaths should keep this in mind:
As in so much data coming out of China, the death toll is probably made up and bears no relation to what is really happening. At least that is the belief of people looking at the data. Perhaps there has been more analysis since this Barron’s article, but I haven’t seen any refutation.
Not that it means much. China’s arbitrary 2% death rate is probably as accurate as any other possible estimate this early in the cycle. Since we don’t know how many people are getting infected, we can’t calculate a death rate.
I got twitchy this morning, week and a half ago I took our roomie in for her cardioversion and now I have a sore throat that is not starting how my normal rhinovirus/colds start. So sinc ethis past week was mrAru’s last week at his job [now his job is packing up the barn for moving] we have enough food to do 2 weeks of self quarantine just in case, and if it gets worse I am going to make an appointment with my primary [figures, 1.5 weeks before my appointment to redo all my vaccinations sigh]
aruvqan. Here are the facts: there are 15 known cases in the US. There were two instances of husband-wife transmission.3 have been released as recovered. The other 9 cases have not spread. The most 3 new cases all came from evacualtion flights from the epicenter, and all of those are in a hard quarantine.
If IIRC, ignoring those 3 cases that came in on the evacuation flight, there have been no other new infections in the US in the past 2 weeks (since my wife returned from Shanghai).
There is a mysterious case of a Japanese visitor to Hawaii, who has tested positive. Highly likely he got it before or on the plane to Hawaii.
The US has 300 m+ population, and 12 active cases. You have a greater chance of being struck by lightening in the US.
(None of this is to downplay the conditions in China especially the epicenter. The company I work for has a very large factory there, I have colleagues, friends and work friends that are in the hot zone, thru marriage I have literally hundreds of family in the province. I also lived in China for SARS, and total understand the paranoia that creeps into every facet of daily life. BUT, we are in the US with 15 cases total and no sign of an epidemic in sight.)
I know, but since chemo I have been slightly paranoid =) and mrAru’s company has a factory in China and ships techs and productss back and forth …
<shrug>
They are the only numbers available.
71,331 confirmed infected
1,775 dead
10,972 recovered
US evacuates US citizens on cruise ship, to quarantine in the US. But 14 of them tested positive for the virus and flew on the same planes as the others (with some separation.) Some US citizens chose to stay on the cruise ship, and not risk being infected on the flight home.
Other countries are also offering to evacuate their citizens.
I suspect the “number recovered” is inaccurate, because there are likely many who had milder forms of the disease without symptoms and were just not tested. I am not overly concerned about coronavirus and would not change travel plans; apart from picking another time to visit mainland China.
Doesn’t mean that one of the tech shipped over here for something hasn’t been exposed … though I meant one last year who was a real sweetheart,I know Japanese habit is to bring little gifts to the office workers that one is visiting, didn’t know it was also a Chinese habit =)
I would have hoped that the people being evacuated would be given those masks that would prevent the virus from getting out or in before and during the evacuation. And I mean the heavy duty ones with a very strong seal. Hell, I’d expect a slightly uncomfortable disinfection procedure before the masks could be removed. Also, I’d expect those known to have the disease to be removed in a separate vehicle at a separate time than those not infected.
With all of that, I would hope that the chance of anyone getting infected on the trip would be lower than staying on the ship.
I live in a major coastal city, I take public transit, I fly somewhat regularly, and my favorite hobby involves close contact with lots of other people. No, I wouldn’t worry about visiting Santa Cruz.
Of course, there haven’t been any cases anywhere near SantaCruz.
How far out is this trip? Since you can afford to walk away from the deposit, my advice would be to plan to go, but re-evaluate immediately before you leave, based on current information. Don’t feel like you need to decide now and stick with it.
I’d be a little nervous about Disney. Especially Disney a month from now.
I wouldn’t have thought the risk was all that high staying on the ship. Diseases usually spread readily through cruise passengers because they all interact with each other and eat from the same buffets. But these people are being (mostly) confined to their rooms and eating individually prepared plates of food. It feels completely different from a risk-of-infection basis. I’d guess that most or all of the new infections are people who were exposed before they began the quarantine.
73,335 confirmed infected
1,873 dead
12,745 recovered
US has 15 cases based on ArcGIS Dashboards
This has been unchanged (IIRC) since my wife came back from Shanghai 15 days ago. Maybe it was 12 and then increased to 15 based on evacuation flights. I didn’t take detailed notes and can’t find a daily tracker
The only US person to person spread has been 2 cases of husband-wife.
3 people are recovered, including case zero in Seattle, and one case of husband-wife in Chicago (according to the above link).
Expect a jump in US cases tomorrow based on the evacuated ship from Japan that are now in hard quarantine in the US.
It is a nightmare for Wuhan and the province of Hubei. The manufacturing company I work for has 15,000 person factory in Wuhan. Fingers crossed but as far as I know only 2 people have been infected and are recovering. The rest of China is not nearly so bad, although there are multiple cities under hard lock down. Our factories in multiple locations are bringing folks on board slowly via a 2 week quarantine outside the factories.
You can say what you want about the response time, and how this could have been identified sooner, but I hope the world can acknowledge that China has taken a major bullet to burn out this epidemic inside of China.
How so? What’s the difference between containment actions to protect their own population and containment actions to protect the global population? Surely it’s exactly the same thing.
Sure, the spring break and Mavericks crowds won’t be there.
We’ll not just visit our old home of Santa Cruz but also the Monterey Bay Aquarium and Cannery Row, which do attract many global visitors. Hell, the Snoopy statue at Railroad Square in Santa Rosa CA pulls in many visitors from worldwide. Tourists are odd animals.
We’ll definitely leave in a bit over 40 hours (that’s before noon Wednesday) for a medical appointment along the way. But I’ll check news on my tablet at the doc’s office. If one case is reported on the Central Coast, we’ll turn around for home.
I’m travelling South East Asia for some months and landed on Cambodia. Most people in SEA use masks every day(because of bad air), but Khmer(Cambodia) never did. One out 50 maybe.
Now, when this virus broke out, almost half people wear them. Which is nice of course, but it freaks me out more than usual.
Btw, be noted, that in Asia it is very common to wear surgical mask out of courtesy, if you think you are sick - so you don’t infect others.
I’m not really a germophobe, but i started to check this site almost daily: https://covid19info.live/ old name (wuflu.live)
I missed the period on 11th Feb when confirmed cases spiked up. Anyone know why ?