The cases spiked because China began reporting clinically confirmed but untested cases.
You know what, it’s bronchitis good for us that our interests are aligned. But I’m thrilled the Chinese are trying to contain it.
Okay, that’s too funny a swypo to edit away. But “bronchitis” was meant to be “probably”. The letters aren’t even that close and i don’t know how it happened.
That is to say, it’s a change in definition, not a real spike. (If there’s also a real spike or dip, we can’t tell.)
Leaving in a couple of days? Don’t worry about it. That’s too soon for secondary infections to be there. In a month, who knows, but right now there are a tiny number of cases in the US and the odds of catching it in the wild are vanishingly small.
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‘Chernobyl-like’ response by China means ‘worst is yet to come’ for coronavirus, Raymond James says
Are they putting this out there just to have a grabby headline? It is hard to say. I have seen suggestions that the actual number of cases and deaths is far higher than what is being reported, though from here it is hard to evaluate. I do seriously doubt China will “fall”- did the Chernobyl disaster play a role in pushing the USSR over the edge?
Seems a little Chicken Little, but then I have read one in five earnings reports this quarter mention the virus, so I can believe economic impacts may not be getting priced into the markets.
Agreed. I don’t like treating investment firms as the arbiters of Truth and Reality.
Now I understand better why these firms sometimes have “real-person” names like “Raymond James” and “Arthur Andersen”. Makes their pronouncements seem more authoritative.
I don’t know about “arbiters of Truth and Reality”, but I like to look at the financial pages with a story like this. These guys don’t get to manage billions in assets by being full of bs, so they tend to do a lot of data-driven analysis.
Still, comparing it to Chernobyl seems like hyperbole. Maybe they know something we don’t? Who knows. My take is to filter out the Chernobyl stuff but note that they think the virus is going to drag on national economies. That may not be a total catastrophe, but it is still pretty serious.
I applaud them for trying to analyze the chaos … but very few of the returns are in this early. So to speak.
A hospital director in Wuhan as died despite major efforts.
8th health care worker dead out of 3000 infected.
This is my concern based on what happened with SARS. The health care community is impacted and then things can go really bad quickly.
Yes, Chernobyl and its aftermath did play a role in the downfall of the USSR. It wasn’t the only factor, but it was one of them.
That said, I think this situation is different and I very much doubt China’s current government will “fall” due to this epidemic.
It will also have a global economic impact as well, given how important China’s economy and manufacturing is. That doesn’t mean the virus will become significant outside of China, it does mean it will hit us all in the finances.
American who was on the cruise ship broke quarantine when it was docked in Cambodia. He’s now home
I’m going to let other people have fun judging this person. And I’m not gonna freak out over the possibility that he spread the virus over the course of his travels. Cuz there is no point in freaking out.
But I gotta wonder if there were other Americans who did the same thing he did. If there are and they decide to stay under the radar (unlike Oregon guy), will we ever be told about them? I gotta think (hope?) some government official somewhere knows who they are and is keeping an eye on them, at the very least.
75,199 confirmed infected
2,012 dead
14,642 recovered
Why did China hide this virus from the world? Imagine if it was contained then other countries won’t also be affected. They also say that wearing mask won’t really protect you from the virus.
Yes to the grabby headline. Financial news can be really boring, so headlines are the clickbait.
I worked in investment banking in the 1990’s, first in Japan. I think there is a very high risk that we are seeing “peak China.” Just like at the end of the 1980’s and early 1990’s when unstoppable Japan buying up Manhattan and Pebble Beach imploded and economy has been lackluster ever since. The global supply chain is dependent on China. Lack of a ten cent spring can shut automotive factories around the world. The entire PC/smart phone supply chain is in China. This is a major disruption and labor shortages for the China export machine that will last for months.
Basic risk management: don’t put all your eggs in one basket or to say it a different way “two supplier strategy.” Trump and his trade wars was a black swan incident that got the brands that source in China (all off 'em basically) worried, and some even started doing something about it. Now a black swan the size of Godzilla dropped neutron bombs in multiple Chinese cities. It is far too much risk for Apple to accept, and these major brands will force a change in the supply chain out of China.
Of course there are others that broke quarantine. It’s human nature. The riskiest place to be when the plague hits is in the quarantine area with known sick people. Much better as a rational individual to flee to where the people are not sick, and where health care is not overwhelmed. And governments best interest is to enforce the quarantine so it doesn’t spread. Completely rationale and diametrically opposite.
Thousand(s) of the passengers had already left Cambodia when the woman was diagnosed in Malaysia. If this coronavirus is really infectious, the world is going to find out in the next week…
Even if the virus and illness was contained to China all the other countries would be affected due to so much of the world’s manufacturing being in China. Not so much physical illness as a financial illness as supply chains break down and commerce slow downs world wide.
Who are “they” and what are their credentials to say that?
Do masks provide 100% protection? No. Also, they have to be properly used which most people won’t be trained in. On the other hand, it does discourage you from touching your face/mouth which may be of some help even for the untrained. Also, while it may not protect someone ill, it will help contain their emissions (sneezing, coughing, breathing) which will protect others to some degree.
Useless? No. Of limited benefit? Yes.
Huge reduction in two category’s new numbers today:
75,725 confirmed infected
2,128 dead
16,415 recovered
The good news is 1-2% lethality.
The bad news is high transmission rates.
This page, “Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE” which many of us have been monitoring, is imperfect.
For instance, it still has a listing of “634 others” which was originally comprised of passengers on the Diamond Princess. Those passengers have been released, though I believe the crew is still confined.
Those passengers were released despite the fact that new cases were appearing, a huge mistake. Some, such as the US passengers were sent to begin a new quarantine program on land. The correct procedure.
Another thing. The chart has the US listed as having 15 cases. We know that is at minimum 29 cases. A Spokane Wa. hospital is receiving at least 5 patients to its Special Pathogens Unit. There are 10 of these units around the country, created as a response to Ebola.
I’m not trying to fear-monger, but this epidemic is still spreading.