Then there’s also the question about whether having had OG or delta covid gives immunity to omicron. If the OG vaccines don’t do it, it’s quite possible that won’t either.
Oh, for crying out loud. This is really, really out of hand.
I don’t disagree, but that story is 3 weeks old.
260,876,508 total cases
5,206,264 dead
235,679,163 recovered
In the US:
49,050,408 total cases
799,137 dead
38,840,233 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
800k dead in the US tomorrow, maybe.
A bit of cautious optimism here: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/26/health/omicron-variant-vaccines.html
[sigh]
They skipped “nu” because it sounds like “new,” which could cause confusion. They also skipped “xi,” which also has pronunciation difficulties (and also possibly because it is also a Chinese name).
(I looked it up and “xi” is often pronounced like the first syllable of Zion, or like ksigh (i.e. sigh with a k sound in front).
If a lifetime of science fiction has taught me anything, it’s that whenever you reach the Omega stage of something, you’re totally screwed.
Basically, travel bans have been enacted against SOUTHERN AFRICAN countries, but not places like Israel, Belgium against whom there would be political and diplomatic costs to impose such bans. Apparently, the variant is sensitive to such minutiae?
Then again, I am not a virologist and epidemiologist.
ETA: My autocorrect all capped “Southern Africa” for some reason. Still it’s perverse that Zoo animals are getting the vaccine before doctors in poor countries.
Covido* in the UK:
*Yes, I’ve coined the term Covid-o or covido for this one.
AIUI, when they run out of Greek letters, they’re going to start using constellation names. So what does your SF-fu say will happen when they get to Andromeda?
That strains the imagination.
Got this this morning from Dr. Rebecca Weintraub at Harvard. A colleague of my step-brother’s. I don’t believe there is any copyright issue since it was a forwarded email, but apologies to the mods if they deem it so.
Hi Friends,
Hoping you all are off line with family. In case you are back in your inbox.
A few FAQ.
The World Health Organization announced that SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 has been elevated to a “variant of concern” and will be known as Omicron. (In recent days, many had speculated that the Greek letter Nu would be used; the Greek letter Omicron was felt to be less confusing, because “Nu” and “new” sound too similar). Shortly after, the United States announced restrictions on travelers from South Africa and at least 7 other nations so far. The rules do not apply to US citizens or permanent US residents.
Aggregating a few facts
Omicron has over 30 mutations in the spike protein an unusually large number of mutations. This suggests that the variant may have emerged from a single patient whose body could not clear the infection, remaining contagious for far longer than most patients. The longer an infection persists, the more mutations one virus can accumulate. This is known to occur in people with profoundly compromised immune systems.
Spike protein mutations may make it easier for the virus to enter a host cell where it can replicate. Some mutations, however, might have the opposite effect. Also, some mutations may help the virus more easily evade our existing acquired immunity, whether from prior infection or vaccines.
We have no evidence suggesting Omicron causes worse disease than its ancestors nor that it does so more frequently.
We do not have direct evidence to suggest that Omicron is either markedly less vulnerable to our existing immunity or is more contagious in any clinically meaningful way, at least so far. This, however, could change, and that’s the crux of everything. While these spike mutations and the prevalence of Omicron in Southern Africa raise these as genuine possibilities (and therefore warrant attention and resource-intensive investigations), those outcomes are not guaranteed.
First, is Omicron more contagious than prior variants? The WHO implies that they think so; otherwise B.1.1.529 would just be a variant of “interest” rather than of “concern. (To my knowledge, none of the other criteria for elevating a variant from being one of “interest” to one of “concern” have been met).
However, I simply have not seen public data that supports or proves that Omicron is more contagious. The WHO also stated that concerns regarding an increased likelihood of “reinfection” were partially behind their choice to designate Omicron as a variant of concern. It’s unlikely that the WHO is withholding data. So we should watch things unfold with open minds. This could go in any direction. In fact, given what we know, there are two important and realistic possibilities to explain Omicron’s dominance in some parts of Southern Africa. The first is that Omicron truly is more contagious. For now, we should assume that’s the case. But the second possibility not yet ruled out is that Omicron is actually not more contagious. If that’s the case, what we are seeing in South Africa and a few other regions could be an example of what is known as the “founder effect.”
The founder effect occurs when there is no disease in a certain area and a new outbreak occurs. Over a few weeks, one case spreads to dozens, then hundreds, and then thousands. Any genetic analysis on any these thousands of cases would show similar results: in this instance, all Omicron, all the time. But that’s because literally every case tracks back to the same “index patient” that started a particular outbreak. This scenario remains possible since Omicron apparently emerged from regions of Southern Africa where there has apparently been very little Covid-19 recently. That said, surveillance there might not be adequate and the fact that Omicron has started showing up elsewhere is worrying. On the other hand, if Omicron took over regions where a fair number of Delta variant infections were simultaneously circulating, that would suggest the newer variant is indeed more contagious.
Next, let’s turn to immune evasion. Is Omicron able to escape immunity that individuals have, either from prior infection or vaccination? That’s unknown. While it is quite likely to (in some degree), the difference could range from inconsequential to devastating. But even with 30 mutations or more, our immune systems are likely to be able to keep up, for the most part. In fact, if the mutations amounted to a new version of the coronavirus spike protein that was so very different than previous versions, such changes could actually backfire for the virus, making it harder to invade our cells. It is possible, and perhaps even likely, that Omicron partially lowers our vaccines’ effectiveness against infection (and also protection from prior infections)—but not against severe disease. If so, we should again be reminded that increases in mild breakthrough infections would not be nearly as worrisome as increases in breakthrough severe disease would be. We should get very worried if we learn that Omicron breakthrough infections are more likely to cause severe illnesses. During the Delta era, we’ve almost exclusively seen breakthrough severe illnesses in older populations.
•••
What should we do right now? Does the United States’ new quasi-travel restriction for non-US citizens from Southern Africa starting three days from now make sense?
If Omicron is more contagious, but not more deadly for the vaccinated (or even the unvaccinated), a leaky travel ban would slow things down a bit but the outcome would be the same; the unvaccinated will suffer the consequences of their choices sooner. That is unless Omicron scares a few people on the fence into finally vaccinating. That’s one upside of early alarmism. It must be said, Omicron is probably already here. So if Omicron sets us back to the pre-vaccine era, any successful travel ban would have to be far-more extensive and less porous than this policy. In that scenario, in order to work, a comprehensive travel ban would likely have to be accompanied by a return to major disruptions in daily life while we re-vaccinate everyone from scratch. Anyone who says a shutdown is off the table right now is either not paying attention, or is in denial.
If the travel restrictions don’t apply to US citizens & or permanent US residents returning from those countries in Africa, do they at least have to quarantine when they come back from those countries? Being a US citizen or permanent US resident doesn’t magically make them incapable of being infected with the new variant.
Greetings from the UK. We have two cases of Omicron. Travel just got more difficult and expensive; and we’re masking again.
- Everyone entering the UK will have to take PCR test by the second day of their arrival and self-isolate until they receive a negative result
- All contacts of suspected Omicron cases must self-isolate, regardless of whether or not they are fully jabbed
- Face coverings will be made compulsory in shops and on public transport - but hospitality settings will be exempt from the changes
j
ETA, by way of clarification, “fully jabbed” is a - uh - quaint Britishism for fully vaccinated.
“Hospitality settings,” meaning hotels and restaurants? Why not there, too? (Except while you’re actually eating.)
Note, if this is the case, then it would be more contagious than delta, which was already more contagious than the original. Delta is already very contagious.
See thread for support for this idea:
261,371,756 total cases
5,212,373 dead
236,064,824 recovered
In the US:
49,077,695 total cases
799,312 dead
38,861,714 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: