We haven’t seen many cases, yet. And a lot of them have been among little with some prior immunity, from vaccination or previous infection.
(the expectation is that cellular immunity from prior infection is not likely to remain than antibody immunity. Cellular immunity takes longer to kick in, and doesn’t level infection, but does tend to make infection much milder and shorter-lived.)
There’s a reporting lag, though. A few of the cases were from a couple weeks ago. It takes a while for sequencing to happen, i think. I’ve read of a couple of people who were already recovered when they learned they had gotten omicron.
New Hampshire Daily case rate sets a new record high for fourth day running! And still climbing fast
New Hampshire – 2052 on Dec 2 (seven-day average)
Vermont – 754 also a record high, and climbing fast
Indiana – sets a new record high of 7062, the highest since 6900 set a year ago today
Following the trends, I predict new record highs to be set in the following states before the weekend is out; they’re shooting up at astronomical levels, and are very close to the previous record highs already:
Massachusetts (prior record set Jan. 9) Rhode Island (Jan 5) Minnesota (Nov 5 2020) Wisconsin (Nov 15, 2020) Illinois (Nov 13 2020) New Mexico (Nov 20 2020)
The rates are also shooting up spectacularly in these states, although they’re not yet near record levels
South Dakota New Jersey Washington (state) Oregon Nevada Utah Colorado
Looking at the country as a whole, the rate of new reported infections has suddenly skyrocketed upwards pretty dramatically.
I really do suspect Thanksgiving as the reason, probably combined with the new omicron variant perhaps. This doesn’t bode well for the Christmas-New Years holiday.
If this is really caused by Thanksgiving (which I’m not fully on board with yet), hold onto your seats. Eight days later, those numbers would mostly be direct and secondary transmissions, which is typically long before the peak of previous waves.
Are you looking at 7 day averages or daily reports? I’m seeing Mass. rates at about the same level as last December. Not great, but nowhere near the peak. Over the past several months Massachusetts reports numbers less consistently on a daily basis. Every now and then there is a huge number surrounded by low numbers, which is why 7-day averages are more telling than an individual day.
The U.S. accepts a rapid antigen test that gives immediate results. (There are also facilities at most major airports that can do a more expensive rapid PCR test that gives results in hours, but the U.S. does not require PCR.)
Also, it’s not 24 hours, it’s “one day”. The CDC allows you to take the test at any time on the day preceding your flight. So if your flight leaves on Tuesday evening, you can take the test on Monday morning.
cites on this page, although I can’t link directly to the relevant paragraphs - look in the FAQ section
As I’ve repeatedly – repeatedly - stated, I’m using seven-day averages of daily reports posted on the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus page.
I’m not surprised that other places report different numbers; they have different ways of gathering data and sources. But Johns Hopkins is a reliable source, and the general numbers and trends tracks across all reporting that I’ve seen.
Seven-day averages are reasonable, because there’s clearly a seven day periodicity to the data that this compensates for. A good thing, too. If you look at the daily numbers the daily reported cases are frequently outrageously higher than the seven day average, and people hearing them would really freak out.
Hey. No need to be defensive, it was a real question. I’m sorry I haven’t remembered your source in the thousands of posts in this thread. What you reported wasn’t what I was seeing in my source, so I asked. That’s it.
The omicron variant is likely to have picked up genetic material from another virus that causes the common cold in humans, according to a new preliminary study, prompting one of its authors to suggest omicron could have greater transmissibility but lower virulence than other variants of the coronavirus.
Big counties in the US that are very highly vaccinated have much lower death rates than the national rate, or the rates in their states. As low as an eighth of the national rate for Montgomery County Maryland, which is 93% fully vaccinated (over age 12) and had a death rate of 0.4 per million. That’s compared with a national death rate of 3.4 per million.
I think I read that study. At least, I read a study with similar results, and it looked at age-adjusted mortality and found that vaccinated people have a much lower mortality rate than unvaccinated people. The difference is so large that it has to be driven, at least in part, by healthier people and/or people with better access to healthcare being more likely to be vaccinated.