Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News

Slow response - sorry. I dug out and have been dipping into the European Public Assessment Report for this drug (it has a conditional approval in the EU). Here it is if anyone is interested - note that the link opens a PDF.

The reason for posting is that I happened across this makes-you-stop-and-think paragraph on p 89:

In addition, an increased mutation rate of SARS-COV-2 has been observed in molnupiravir-treated subjects compared with those given placebo, in terms of nucleotide changes in the viral RNA and their translation into amino acid changes. While this effect is expected based on the mechanism of action of this class of medicines the clinical relevance of this finding is so far not known and may require further follow-up as part of the MA. [= Marketing Authorisation, ie drug licence]

{Stops and thinks.)

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Practically the entire country is red (meaning increasing numbers of reported cases, seven-day-averaged), with only four states in the blue. Several have hit record highs since last Wednesday (although, admittedly, many hit the high on Thursday):

Vermont 679 on Dec 2
New Hampshire 1644 on Dec 2
Maine 874 on Dec 3
Michigan 11682 on Dec 2

Several others seemed poised to set new records; not as many as I’d feared, but we’ll see what tomorrow brings.

266,140,077 total cases
5,271,350 dead
239,777,776 recovered

In the US:

49,969,856 total cases
808,763 dead
39,523,573 recovered

YesterdayA few days ago’s numbers for comparison:

266,680,561 total cases
5,277,353 dead
240,218,807 recovered

In the US:

50,148,673 total cases
810,244 dead
39,669,544 recovered

Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:

Apologies if this has been answered-- any deaths reported from omicron?

I haven’t seen any reported. So far, it looks to be relatively less severe than had been feared, if I’m following correctly.

:crossed_fingers: If only…

I’m hopeful, but deaths are a lagging indicator, and omicron is new.

One alarming detail is that omicron is sending kids to the hospital. That’s new. Look at the graph about half way down that link. (Sorry, I’ve spent some time trying to make it show, and i give up.)

If I’m reading that graph right, (not the one visible in the box, but the one half way down the linked page) more than 100 kids under 5 are hospitalized in Tshwane, something that we really haven’t seen before.

That’s a really interesting article, and pretty scary graphs. In addition to the hospitalizations graph, the slopes of the new infections and reinfections spikes are unreal.

Interesting:

According to the data, 66% of patients were “incidental Covid admissions”, meaning they were for other conditions and found they were positive upon the hospital arrival.

I’m happy to say that the states have mostly avoided setting new records for seven-day averaged new COVIC cases for the past few days. It was looking pretty scary in several states. But Vermont and New Hampshire haven’t set new records very recently. Nor Rhode Island, Massachusetts, or Maine. Other states have retreated from the skyrocket-like rise in new cases.

Michigan, however, hit a new high of 10048 yesterday, beating the previous high set Dec 2, five days ago

Times are getting desperate when it’s good news that somebody didn’t set a new infection record.

It’s too soon to tell. Thanksgiving totally borked all the records. There was a couple days with way too few cases being reported, then a few days with way too many. We’re still waiting for those records to even out and show us something meaningful.

Yes, my state just did something like a 7,000 case adjustment for November due to late reporting.

Wapo has an article. Here are important parts for those who hit the paywall:

In a preprint paper not yet peer-reviewed, scientists in South Africa reported a large, 41-fold drop in antibodies’ virus-blocking ability — “much more extensive escape” than seen against previous variants using similar experiments. But the scientists stressed the positive element of their research: Omicron did not escape antibodies completely, and people who had been previously infected and fully vaccinated with two shots of the vaccine retained “relatively high” levels of antibodies protective against omicron.

“Omicron evades most of the vaccine response,” said Michel C. Nussenzweig, a Rockefeller University investigator who was not part of the South Africa research team but whose experiments predicted a similar drop in antibodies’ neutralizing ability. He stopped short of saying that vaccines will have to be rebooted to match omicron’s highly mutated spike protein.

“We don’t know what will happen with hospitalization or severe disease. If vaccines are keeping people out of the hospital and are making what could be a bad disease into something like a common cold, or something a bit more severe but not life-threatening in any way, then we’re good,” Nussenzweig said.

“Thank goodness we have some concrete data now,” Benjamin Neuman, a virologist at Texas A&M University, said in an email. He said scientists had worried that omicron would be able to elude entirely the first line of defense, the neutralizing antibodies. Not so. The lab research supports the need for boosters, he added.

“It looks like quantity of antibodies will overcome the natural resistance of omicron, and that is a very good thing,” he said. “Boosters not only let the body make more diverse antibodies, they also raise antibody levels. In other words, Omicron may be vaccine-resistant, but it is not booster-proof.”

So as not to quote more, I’ll also summarize some other bits. William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, says that this does not mean that having had COVID-19 is more protective on its own, only along with vaccines. And David R. Martinez, a viral immunologist at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health, reminds people that healthy people will likely be more protected from severe disease due to there being other aspects of the immune system besides the antibodies, and that this does not mean we’re back to square one with COVID-19.

This CNN article (which should have no paywall) seems to be about the same study, and argues that the current boosters likely still protect from severe disease, as Benjamin Neuman said.

267,387,468 total cases
5,286,518 dead
240,764,886 recovered

In the US:

50,270,136 total cases
812,205 dead
39,742,867 recovered

Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:

I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of managers who want their peons back in the cubicles cried into their three-martini lunches and were suddenly silenced…

Last week, Google and Uber became some of the first major employers in the United States to announce that they would postpone their Jan. 10 return date — not to another specific day, but indefinitely. Ford Motor Co. said Monday that it was pushing its expected return from January to March…

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/08/world/omicron-variant-covid/pfizer-says-blood-samples-showed-a-third-dose-of-its-vaccine-provides-significant-protection-against-omicron

Pfizer and BioNTech said Wednesday that laboratory tests suggest that three doses of their coronavirus vaccine offer significant protection against the fast-spreading Omicron variant of the virus.

The companies said that tests of blood from individuals who received only two doses found more than a 25-fold reduction in antibody levels against the Omicron variant compared to an earlier version of the virus. That finding indicates that two doses alone “may not be sufficient to protect against infection” by the new variant, the companies said.