Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News

South Korea:

131,362,691 total cases
2,859,257 dead
105,739,697 recovered

In the US:

31,383,126 total cases
568,513 dead
23,894,632 recovered

Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:

You’re right. The article below says it was a single bad batch.

Johnson & Johnson says it will take full control of its coronavirus vaccine production at Baltimore plant
By Jon Swaine

131,919,922 total cases
2,866,006 dead
106,202,613 recovered

In the US:

31,420,331 total cases
568,777 dead
23,946,703 recovered

Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:

On the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Map site, Vermont has achieved a new record high daily case report (seven day averaged). again, it’s not all that high compared to other states, but it’s significant that they’re setting new records.

On the Hopkins site, the seven day average of daily cases is clearly going up, but hasn’t yet set a new record. But CNN is reporting that the non-averaged daily case rate in Michigan is almost as high as it was at the beginning of December

(Actually the Hopkins site has the seven-day averaged cases higher Saturday than on December 7, although not as high as November 30)

It’s still trending up in several New England states, and in the world as a whole, for that matter. Scariest of all is India, whose average daily case rate is shooting up rapidly, and is now the world’s highest, eclipsing both the US and Brazil

When people compare absolute case numbers and say that the second-most populous country has the world’s highest number, I don’t find that alarming at all. Rapid increases (or even just continuing slow increases) are worrying, as are cases per capita. In countries with over ten million people, the most worrying seem to be the Czech Republic, the USA, Portugal, Sweden, and Belgium. The UK seems to have turned the corner.

I saw that India was vaccinating 2% of the population a day, which, if true, is astounding, and will very quickly get them to a point where the chain of transmission is interrupted.

India is by far the largest vaccine producer in the world. That’s probably helping quite a bit.

And yes, their per capita case/death numbers haven’t even come close to the American numbers.

Some good news: at least one virus expert is fairly relaxed about the risks of mutation: https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/there-are-no-covid-super-strains-yet-says-virologist-vincent-racaniello

It seems there’s a new Double Secret Mutation* coronavirus that’s probably responsible for the big surge in India. One case has been found in the Bay area.

[*] I’m probably not the first to call it that.

Looking at the charts on a per capita basis, the big surge in India isn’t yet as high as their first surge last year and no where near the surges in Western countries. We’ll see though. Still going up.

132,423,954 total cases
2,873,802 dead
106,750,307 recovered

In the US:

31,496,976 total cases
569,282 dead
24,058,562 recovered

Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:

the u.s. is at:

18.8% fully vaccinated
32.4% one dose
167,187,795 doses administered
207,891,395 doses distributed
80% doses used

averaging around 3 million per day now. edging toward 4 million.

Good info, but being so sketchy it immediately raises two questions:

  1. Are the percentages computed in terms of those eligible under the EUAs or of the US populace as a whole? Including or excluding the under-18s and some of the severe disease folks in the denominator makes a material difference in what those numbers say about the rest of us.

  2. For the “averaging 3-4 million/day”, is that doses, or is that completed courses? IOW, are we turning out 1.5 million or 3 million fully vaccinated people per day?

Quibbling aside …

The sum of those first two numbers say we now have 51% who have demonstrated by deed, not just word, that they are willing to be vaccinated for COVID.

And even assuming the more pessimistic 1.5-2 million completed 2-jab courses per day, that means something on the order of 1/2 to 3/4ths of one percent of the populace is completing each day. Which is gigantic.

It will be very interesting to see how that total percentage moves over the next few weeks. When does the well of willing arms run dry and at what percentage of the eligible population? Of the total population?

Will the Feds be able to divert manpower and resources to the places where the governors are trying hard to prevent vaccination?

It is from this site.

I put up the general numbers. it is broken down by states and demographics.

Not correct. It is confusing but what can you do? Do not take the sum of the two numbers you are summing. 32.4% having one dose means having at least one dose so includes the fully vaccinated people already.

Which governors would those be? Actually trying to prevent vaccinations is a new one. Even Trump is pro vaccination. Other policies, opening up too early are another matter.

Also posted this in the Astra Zeneca approval thread, but it is also breaking news, I think. AZ paused its trial of vaccine in children pending further information on the blood-clotting issues.

Here’s a nice tracker (at the state & county level) that provides some quantification on how difficult the rollout will be or is depending on a number of demographic factors. They summarize it as a “concern index” (how concerned should I be about the rollout if I live in XYZ county?).

Australia and New Zealand, which are both routinely scoring zero local transmission and seem to have managed the occasional escape of the virus from hotel quarantine effectively, have announced a travel bubble, which allows for air travel between the two with no requirement for mandatory quarantine. There has been a one way, NZ → Australia, arrangement without quarantine for a few months.

New Zealand is also discussing similar links to other Pacific nations as well.

Still some risks if there is a shutdown mid-holiday, but plenty of Australians go to NZ in our winter for skiing, general tourism and family stuff.