161,872,310 total cases
3,360,018 dead
139,705,919 recovered
In the US:
33,626,097 total cases
598,540 dead
26,667,199 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
That’s the central problem. You can’t use ordinary tools of positive and negative reinforcement in the face of widespread cheating.
Nobody seems to have posted this yet: some encouraging news from the UK. Especially encouraging for those of us who had to wait so long for our second shots of vaccine. OK, the author states that it’s a result specific to the Pfizer vaccine, which I didn’t get (but there were immunology results suggesting this effect for the AZ vaccine); and the study was carried out in subjects rather older than I am; but I’m still hopeful.
Delaying a COVID vaccine’s second dose boosts immune response
Facing a limited vaccine supply, the United Kingdom embarked on a bold public-health experiment at the end of 2020: delaying second doses of COVID-19 vaccines in a bid to maximize the number of people who would be at least partially protected from hospitalization and death…
…To determine whether the delay paid off, Amirthalingam and her colleagues studied 175 vaccine recipients older than 80 who received their second dose of the Pfizer vaccine either 3 weeks or 11–12 weeks after the first dose. The team measured recipients’ levels of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and assessed how immune cells called T cells, which can help to maintain antibody levels over time, responded to vaccination.
Peak antibody levels were 3.5 times higher in those who waited 12 weeks for their booster shot than were those in people who waited only 3 weeks. Peak T-cell response was lower in those with the extended interval. But this did not cause antibody levels to decline more quickly over the nine weeks after the booster shot.
More news:
For the first time, emergency physicians described the successful treatment of what looked to be a serious case of this new entity, which is being called vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT), because the condition causes blood clots (“thrombotic”) and low levels of platelets (“thrombocytopenia”), which are a type of blood cell that helps with proper blood clot formation. The doctors used a blood thinner called bivalirudin. The peer-reviewed report has been pre-published in the Annals of Emergency Medicine * .
j
162,538,008 total cases
3,371,426 dead
140,397,997 recovered
In the US:
33,664,013 total cases
599,314 dead
26,712,821 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
It is likely that the US will surpass 600,000 covid-19 deaths tomorrow. Just about 14 months after it really hit us. It hasn’t been evenly distributed over that span of time by any means, but it averages out to a little under 43,000 deaths per month.
Related to my last post (two up) about new clinical evidence showing that delaying the second shot of vaccine improves efficacy, we have an odd situation evolving in the UK. A series of outbreaks of the highly contagious Indian variant has lead the authorities to shorten the interval between shots (from 12 to 8 weeks) in order to ensure as many at-risk people as possible have a higher level of immunity as quickly as possible. Which leads to bit of a dilemma.
Regarding the shortening of the dose interval to 8 weeks, effective immediately:
The deputy chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, Professor Anthony Harnden said that this was a better strategy than giving first jabs to younger people, as some local leaders have demanded.
But he confirmed that earlier doses for over-50s will make the vaccine less effective for these individuals over the long term…
…“This is a bit of a trade-off, and that we think that actually protecting vulnerable people with their second dose earlier might not give them better longer-term protection but it will give them better short-term protection, in this rather urgent situation with a highly transmissible virus.”
j
The recent study (linked just above at post #1374) that showed a longer interval induced a stronger response had a small sample size, and it did not look at efficacy against infection or disease or transmission directly - it looked at indirect measures like antibody titer. We already know that the mRNA vaccines are incredibly effective under the original protocol, already granting virtually complete protection against serious consequences. With efficacy already so high, I think it’s probable that any efficacy difference between long and short protocols is negligible with regard to disease; perhaps it’s more of an open question with regard to transmission.
Given what we know at this point, if supplies are now adequate and it’s no longer a choice between giving someone a second shot earlier and giving someone else at high risk a first shot, I think shortening the interval is probably the right decision.
I don’t disagree; and I do agree with the caveat “Given what we know at this point”.
I’m assuming booster shots (probably covering variants) will be on the cards for autumn/winter, so that would have to be taken into account as well, when it comes to optimized long term protection. It would have been interesting to have had the Prof’s thoughts about that.
j
163,179,059 total cases
3,383,606 dead
141,478,916 recovered
In the US:
33,695,916 total cases
599,863 dead
27,098,620 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Also, if you read the papers that actually count antibodies, they all graph them on a log scale. A factor of 3.5 is really small change. What that really means is “we now have excellent evidence that we didn’t reduce long-term immunity by delaying the second dose”. And for some tiny subset of people, that factor of 3.5 might make a difference, but it would be a tiny subset.
I think the UK did the right thing initially by delaying second doses, to make first doses more available to those at high risk. And they are probably doing the right thing in light of the more infectious variants to now hurry second doses to those who are most vulnerable.
Here’s a sample article, just for kicks. Note the scales.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03412-7
163,718,298 total cases
3,393,335 dead
142,184,301 recovered
In the US:
33,715,951 total cases
600,147 dead
27,136,020 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Today Texas reported:
0 Covid related deaths–the only time that’s happened since data was tracked in March, 2020.
the fewest Covid cases in over 13 months
the lowest 7-day Covid positivity rate ever
the lowest Covid hospitalizations in 11 months.
Thanks, Texans!
— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) May 17, 2021
WHOA! This is big.
Knock on wood.
164,278,319 total cases
3,404,457 dead
142,997,739 recovered
In the US:
33,747,439 total cases
600,533 dead
27,202,309 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
For some reason, the Johns Hopkins site shows the number of new daily reported cases rising very rapidly in Alabama
The seven-day averaged number of cases is up to the level it was back in February. No other state is doing anything like this.
It might be relevant that Alabama is near the bottom of states in vaccination rate by any measure v
From the data notes for Alabama:
On March 15, 2021, the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) posted a notice that they have processed a backlog of 4007 cases on 03/14/21. These will be classified as confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases reported on 03/15/21 even though the tests were performed on during October 1, 2020 through January 1, 2021. This will result in a case and positivity spike in the data.
The most likely reason for anomalous spikes is always going to be a reporting or data issue, and both Johns Hopkins and Worldometers are generally good about pointing them out.
Thx
(More characters)
Important study showing efficacy of Pfizer vaccine against UK & South African variants
@nelliebly posted this in the other thread.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2104974
The U.K. & South African variants are the predominant strains in Qatar, and Qatar has an extensive vaccination program that began in December. This study has a very large sample size.
Efficacy against any infection (PCR positive, including asymptomatic):
B1.1.7 (U.K.) strain = 90%
B1.351 (S.A.) strain = 75%
But most important, efficacy against severe disease was 97%.
Severe disease was defined according to WHO criteria found here see p14, requiring oxygen support.
The 3.3m figure of global dead comes from official figures. According to The Economist, the actual number may be 10.2m if one considers excess deaths compared to the usual expected value (see article, some statistical manipulation is involved). Although Covid originally seemed to spare Africa and South America, this is no longer the case. Some countries may be underreporting deaths - the true value could be 13 times higher than official numbers in Egypt, 3 times higher in South Africa, considerably higher in many African Countries or places like Russia or China. Scary!
164,901,667 total cases
3,418,730 dead
143,862,822 recovered
In the US:
33,774,945 total cases
601,330 dead
27,253,327 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
165,568,854 total cases
3,431,786 dead
144,589,029 recovered
In the US:
33,802,324 total cases
601,949 dead
27,299,180 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: