More news.
It’s estimated that over 125K fully-vaccinated people have tested positive for Covid. The estimated deaths are less accounted for since only some states have those records, but NBC news estimated the deaths at 1,400 for fully-vaccinated people. Health officials note that this is the expected rate, not vaccine failure since the vaccines are not 100% effective.
Vaccination rates are rising, particularly in the states hardest hit by the pandemic.
Unless I’m missing something, the US did go over 100,000 cases. 38,688,506 - 35,584,272 = 104,234.
Perhaps a controversial number, but Dr. Gottlieb usually gives solid analysis. He’s one of the experts I regularly pay attention to. He says we might have up to 1 million new cases per day. He’s consistently said all along that we’re probably only catching 5 to 10% of the new cases with the Delta variant, which seemed controversial a few weeks ago, but given the new data on transmissibility, it seems he was correct.
On the more positive side of the ledger, he also seems to think that this is the reason we may be closer to the end of this wave than we think, the assumption being that with so many new cases, we will get closer to achieving a level of herd immunity - at least in the short run.
Speculation. Opinion.
Well, that’s what a lot of this is anyway-- speculation & opinion. I for one, am glad to read something a bit optimistic. The future will bring what the future brings. Is having a little bone to gnaw on in the meantime so bad?
True, but his point is that we’re missing a lot of data at the federal level, and it’s hard to see how he’s not right about that.
My numbers should be considered “informal”. I mean, they are the actual numbers at the time I posted but my “day” isn’t always exactly 24 hours. I try and post at 9pm Pacific but occasionally I don’t post until 11pm or later. The 99,470 figure came from WoM, since they do maintain a strict 24-hour cycle on their “days”.
Sorry for the confusion; hope that clears things up.
Taiwan, once again, a success story. Two things that have resulted in a dramatic reversal in the right direction:
Mandatory masking in all indoor places.
No indoor dining or activities.
What are the odds of that here, though? lol
Here’s a another interesting case: a family reunion involving 29 family members who stayed in contact over the course of 10 days. Out of 29 individuals, 21 were infected, including 13 who were fully vaccinated. Some of the fully vaccinated ended up in the hospital - doesn’t say how many.
This probably doesn’t address the question of one-time limited encounters with infected people, but it makes clear that prolonged contact makes transmission highly likely, even among the vaccinated. And some of these will be at risk for hospitalization.
[Chrissie Hinds]
Hey, uh…. way to ‘duh’, Florida.
[/Chrissie Hinds]
198,552,233 total cases
4,233,009 dead
179,294,083 recovered
In the US:
35,745,024 total cases
629,315 dead
29,666,117 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
Hawaii recorded 485 new cases today (Saturday), our highest single-day total in the entire pandemic.
Yesterday actually showed 622 new cases, but that included some cases that went uncounted the previous two days due to some sort of reporting difficulties from some of the labs. But even then, the three days averaged 313 new cases a day, an alarming surge.
Curiously, Desantis insists on fighting mask mandates and pushes for schools to reopen without masking. Keep it up, Ronnie. Let’s see how popular you are when children start dropping dead or end up in ICUs.
Someone needs to get it through DeSantis’ thick skull that this is not an accomplishment.
A few days ago I wrote:
And then this exchange happened:
Well, it turns out that WoM revised the count for that day and it now stands at 101,098 new cases in the US for 30 July 2021.
So, yeah: we passed 100,000 new cases in a day again; this had not happened since 12 February 2021.
It’s the weekend now and numbers have almost always been lower for Saturday and Sunday, so be prepared for more bad news this coming week.
If the trend here follows that of India and the UK, we’ll continue to see a sharp rise for the next 2-3 weeks before a sudden decline. Reported* case numbers will probably rise to around 200,000 per day sometime in the next 2-3 weeks, if not sooner. But then we’ll hopefully be on the other side of that wave. I just hope we don’t get an even worse variant until we have time to up our vaccine game a bit more.
A worse variant is probably inevitable.
If you look at the timeline, there was a cluster of variants that appeared in early late fall/early winter last year, about 10-12 months after the likely initial start of wild SARS-COV-2. The lockdowns, as brutal as they were economically, probably slowed the mutation process. But we started reopening gradually here and here as we headed toward the holiday season, and then India hatched the Delta variant around the start of its own holiday season. I can’t help but think that limiting contact is going to be the key to slowing down mutation - nothing can stop mutations, of course.
[quote=“Siam_Sam, post:1965, topic:929428, full:true”]
Hawaii recorded 485 new cases today (Saturday), our highest single-day total in the entire pandemic.[/quote]
452 new cases recorded today in Hawaii, the second-highest total in the pandemic. No new deaths. On the plus side, Hawaii hit 60% fully vaccinated yesterday. The governor has promised all Covid restrictions will be abolished once we hit 70%. But at the present growth rate of 0.1 percentage points per day, we’re looking at November.
Thailand has announced yet another two-week extension to its lockdown, which I think started in June, and added 16 more provinces to the list of those affected. That makes 26 provinces (out of 77) including Bangkok and covering 40% of the population. They expect the lockdown will continue at least all the way through this month.
Okay; there’s some good stats info in this article; that headline is just clickbait:
To finish the quote in the preview:
Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, also said he doesn’t foresee additional lockdowns in the U.S. because he believes enough people are vaccinated to avoid a recurrence of last winter. However, he said not enough are inoculated to “crush the outbreak” at this point.
And now for the data info:
According to data through July 30 from Johns Hopkins University, the seven-day rolling average for daily new cases in the U.S. rose from 30,887 on July 16 to 77,827 on July 30. The seven-day rolling average for the country’s daily new deaths rose over the same period from 253 on July 16 to 358 on July 30, though death reports generally lag weeks after infections and even longer after hospitalizations.
Currently, 58% of Americans 12 years and older are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC’s data tracker.
However, people are “getting the message” and more are rolling up their sleeves amid the threat of the delta variant, according to the director of the National Institutes of Health. Dr. Francis Collins said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that vaccinations are up 56% in the U.S. in the last two weeks.