The thesis is that there is a “market opportunity” for the vaccinated to be infected by a Covid that evades the vaccines, that one will develop that evades the vaccines. Extending this argument, even if a vaccine or booster were developed for THOSE variants, it would again be “almost certain” that more new variants would develop that would evade those adjustments.
The biggest variable in the equation is Covid itself. If those variants CAN be created, then yes it will happen sooner or later. But I’m not ready to declare Covid an unbeatable shapeshifter. Whatever happens is dependent upon what Covid can do or not do. Not some market opportunity for infection. There are plenty of imaginary viruses that could infect people one way or another, and a few real ones coming down the pike to be certain. But there aren’t waiting lists of viruses scheming to infect us in every possible way.
COVID is proving itself to be increasingly transmissible, which is also what enables it to mutate rapidly. It’s almost certainly endemic at this point. We will probably be getting boosters regularly and dealing with outbreaks, some of which might produce variants that are relatively benign and others that are more dangerous.
tofor may have been right about Florida only reporting weekly now, because the data (Johns Hopkins sven-day-averaged Daily New Cases) now shows that Florida hit a new high of 27,681 yesterday, far exceeding its earlier peaks of 17,991 on January 5 and 11,865 from a year ago. And it’s still rising rapidly (with un-averaged daily values way in excess of 27,681. Where are those coming from if the data’s reported weekly?)
Hawaii has also hit a new high well above previous values – 448 as of yesterday, well above the 228 on January 8 or the 254 last August). And, as in Florida, it’s still increasing sharply.
While it’s still increasing in other states, the rate is not as dramatic, and some appear to have “paused”. And nobody else is reporting new record highs.
Internationally, rates are going up in many places (although several appear “paused”), but are increasing sharply in
Thailand
Malaysia
Cuba’
Japan
According to the morning news, a majority of people questioned in Japan didn’t want the Olympics to go on, and many are blaming the Olympics (despite all the precautions) for the rise.
The difference in hospitalization rates between age groups has never been as stark as the mortality rate. I suppose we’ll find out if overwhelmed hospitals change that at all.
It’s crazy here in Florida. We’re nearly up to triple digits at my local hospitals - comparable with the worst of the pandemic, last July and in January (source for below images: Florida DoH, NYT) - mostly unvaccinated but I am told a number of fully vaccinated individuals have perished.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – In a dramatic shift from last month, more Americans now say the coronavirus situation in the U.S. is getting worse (45%) rather than better (40%). In June, a record 89% said the situation was getting better, while only 3% said it was getting worse.
…
Americans now expect societal disruptions related to COVID-19 to persist at least through the end of the year, or longer. Whereas in June, nearly half of Americans expected COVID-related disruptions in society to last only a few more weeks or months, now just 17% believe they will end by then.
Instead, 41% expect the COVID-19 disruptions to persist through the end of the year, and 42% – up from 17% in June – believe they will stretch into 2022.
…
Sadly, this is kinda how I’m feeling. I’d love to turn out to be wrong.
This - and as painful as it is, there almost certainly is some inherent herd immunity that comes with rapidly-spreading virus, which is why Dr. Gottlieb believes the wave will start a precipitous fall in the next 2-3 weeks. I was bored and began browsing the COVID data in various countries on Google and found that, with the few exceptions of countries that did an outstanding job of bringing the virus under control, most Delta surges seem to be peaking at about 6-7 weeks into the surge before starting a sudden decline. In a few cases, the surge went on for 8-9 weeks. We’re probably 4-5 weeks into the surge now.
A few countries like Taiwan did an outstanding job of getting their shit together. Brazil, by far, has been the worst among major countries. It’s been an unmitigated disaster - so bad that when you look at their trend lines, there’s no sharp rise or fall like what most countries have experienced; it’s just a wave that goes up and down but never very far, as case loads remain very high.
Israel has just started giving booster shots - my father (73) and mother-in-law (69) got their third Pfizer shot last week and today, respectively. They’ll probably get around to my age group in a few weeks.
This might be a dumb question, but is it basically just another dose of the same vaccine or is it a newer version that Pfizer has made? I would assume the former, right?
Also, is there any data about immune response so far that you know of?
Maybe people are figuring it out.
