Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2022 Breaking News

Wow! That seems so low to me, but I just looked up some national stats which appear to bear that out with nice shaded maps. Even the national stat of ~20% seems very high to me, but apparently that is not only city-boy bias on my part but West coast bias, as septic systems are much rarer out here.

I think you’re missing the point of the post you’re replying to. The concern was that reported case counts are not reflecting the magnitude or even the onset of a surge because people are no longer testing or they’re doing home tests and aren’t reporting the results. I think they’re saying that hospitalization numbers are good for catching trends even if only 50% of the hospitalized people were admitted specifically because of covid.

I don’t think I was missing the point. It is certainly true that hospitalisation is a better indicator of whether the virus presents or not than simple case rate. I agree with that.

The point was made that it has greater consistency, that’s also true. but only to a point, certainly when it comes to comparing rates now with historical rates.

That is not something you can easily do without further stratifying factors. Countries do not all use consistent definitions and nor do they provide additional info that helps you understand what is actually going on.

e.g. for those in hospital now, even those purely because of Covid, can they be directly compared to previous situations? If the average hospitalisation stay now were 1 night, compared to 7 nights in previous waves, if the treatment intensity is very high now versus previous waves etc. etc. then the pure “hospitalisation” number stops being quite so illustrative of what is going on.

It is not a suggestion that the hospitalisation rate is completely useless or hopelessly misleading, merely that one should be very careful about drawing conclusions about trends and the implications that follow from that without being certain about whether the data is up to the job. We shouldn’t extrapolate beyond what the data will bear or we should at the very least be open about what the limitations of the data are when we do so.

Moderating:

Please take this sort of discussion out of the breaking news thread.

I know it’s hard to resist the urge to elaborate (I’ve certainly been guilty of that) but we have a lot of other threads for that kind of discussion.

Covid exploding through totally unvaccinated North Korean population:

Yikes. If they’re publicly reporting “6 deaths” what do you think the real number is?

Worms In The Journal, part XXVIII:

Yet another paper promoting the use of ivermectin for Covid-19 has bit the dust. Do not read the comments posted following the article, unless you’re a connoisseur of brain-busting stypidity.

(Gift link)


New Zealand maintained some of the world’s tightest coronavirus restrictions, especially regarding international travel, in an effort to keep the pandemic that was sweeping the rest of the world at bay. And it was largely successful, until an outbreak of the highly infectious Omicron variant took hold this spring.

But by the time Omicron arrived, the country was well protected. New Zealand’s vaccination rate is high: 83 percent of the entire population is fully vaccinated. Coronavirus cases have remained flat over the last two weeks, and the population of five million is averaging about 7,600 new daily cases, and fewer than 14 daily deaths.

I have been wondering how things are going on New Zealand.

Laos is reopening to visitors, dropping all entry restrictions except for the requirement to be fully vaccinated.

The US has hit 1 million cases, per the widely-used John’s Hopkins numbers:

Well, it’s not used here. The Worldometers site got to 1 M weeks ago.

Not that either is a very accurate count of the number of excess deaths due to covid. That figure reached 1 M in February.

When worldometer hit 1M, there was discussion here about why it wasn’t in the news.

Now it’s in the news. I got several news alerts in the past day about the impact of one million dead, how it compared to the aids epidemic, the civil war, large cities… This is the number the US media mostly follows.