Yeah after I posted I started wondering if I was actually using that term correctly, or if I just qualified for a posting on r/confidentlyincorrect. Apologies if I misused the term. I meant the concept I described, not the word I used.
Also, you’re way too hung up on the words “give up.” Substitute whatever words you want for the end of covid restrictions and it doesn’t materially change my point. But separately, I think your view that science alone will dictate that time is naive at best.
EDIT: If it’s not 100% science-dictated – if any amount of political pressure hastens the end of restrictions – then to some extent the phrasing “give up” could fairly apply.
Back on to the virus as opposed to the politics of the virus, is there an ideal amount of time to wait between your second Moderna shot and getting the Moderna booster?
Connecticut* was all Moderna for the first two rounds but is now almost all Pfizer for boosters. I want to hold out for a Moderna booster, and my second shot was April 20th or thereabouts. So exactly 8 months next week. Is that the perfect amount of time?
AIDS is sort of an ugly example. It’s still a pandemic, it’s just that It’s a pandemic that is confined to parts of Africa, so we hear a lot less about it now, here.
The 1918 flu, I presume that it burned through the populations that were vulnerable. IIRC, some people above a certain age seemed to have some resistance, possibly from an earlier similar flu strain. It came to an end according to this source, because “By the summer of 1919, … those that were infected either died or developed immunity.”
Which is where we are headed, with the added protection of vaccines for those who want them.
As someone who got a breakthrough case when delta was prevalent, I certainly don’t think you should wait longer. If you want Moderna, look farther away, don’t wait longer.
I had Pfizer, so yes, Moderna was more protective, but I was also just short of the recommended 6 months for the Pfizer booster. Something more contagious is coming. Don’t wait.
Here is my thought process spelled out. (In reference to @EllisDee’s comments) How will each concentric “community” decide for itself when this thing is over (family, neighborhood, city, county, state, nation, continent, etc.)? Looking at the past, I asked, “How have other pandemics been declared (or treated as if) they were over?” I recognize that the situations with the 1918 flu and with AIDS are not the same, the world is not the same, medicine is not the same, travel is not the same, and the afflicted groups are not the same. But it’s the best comparison I could come up with on short notice. I’m pretty sure an attempt to compare with the Black Death would yield even less pertinent information.
Is there any record of Spanish flu social distancing and mask mandates? Like, can we look up when the first ones went into effect and also when the last ones ended?
I googled for my local hospital bed capacity the other day and it was pretty shocking. Most of the hospitals listed showed between mid 80s to high 90s percent capacity used. This seemed counter to the high vaccination rates and mask compliance in my area, but I figured it was just the Trumpers filling beds. They are everywhere, like weeds. Even here.
Nope. Turns out there’s a county in Ohio with the same name and Google had served up those results. (Looks like a s*** show in Ohio.) Looking up my actual county in Connecticut, hospital beds are mostly under 50%. My local hospital is at 43%, and the other local hospital I have actually been to is at 46%. That makes so much more sense.
My point in asking was more that someone can’t say,
But there will be an end. Progress has been made. We are close to the end than ever before. Even if there are setbacks, we will never be back to ground zero, and we can always keep pushing forward.
if there isn’t a defined end. How can you confidently say, “there will be an end” if you haven’t established, even in your own mind, what that means, what that looks like.
If people are saying, this looks endless, saying, “there will be an end” doesn’t help unless you give it substance. That’s the whole point. I’m not saying that masking orders need to end in some specific number of months. I’m saying there should, at this point, be some serious conversations on our side, the pro-science side, about what the end conditions are.
And no, science alone can’t answer that. It is a policy decision that needs to be made, based on science. There are tradeoffs. It’s an exercise in line drawing, and we need to talk about the line. We can’t say, it ends when no one is dying of covid, because it is going to be endemic. There will always be people dying of covid. So we have to stop talking about it in those terms. It can’t be, if you want masking to end, you’re pro-people dying. It isn’t that simple. (And again, I don’t want masking to end right now. I’m talking about the endlessness of it, not advocating stopping now.)
I thought your question was quite reasonable. I hope that came across in my attempt to address it in a small, real-world way. We’re making this up as we go along, from the top down.
Thanks for the clarification. I didn’t read it that way, but that’s my fault. I apologize if I was overly defensive in response. I think it can be tough to ask these questions right now and not be lumped in with the anti-science, pro-“freedom” crowd who are not balancing anything. Or rather, they find that any inconvenience to them is not worth it, no matter how many lives are involved.
When i can get together with a lot of friends and square dance, without worrying that I’m going to kill some of them, or catch “long covid”.
I was hoping we were close to an end as we got boosters to Delta. I was more optimistic then than after the end of the first wave, because i expected some variants. But as Delta spread, it looked like the virus may have exhausted its bag of tricks.
I’m expecting to hunker down again for omicron, but I’m still hoping the end of the pandemic is soonish.
So, would it need to be a similar risk profile to influenza? Assuming Covid can’t be defeated in any permanent sense, and it becomes endemic, what if the risk remains higher than influenza? What if it continues to ripple through unvaccinated and vulnerable people because we can’t get to herd immunity due to the large numbers of unvaxxed? (Especially if seasonal vaccine updates are needed.)
True. And they will not give a damn about who calls them selfish or says that history will judge them.
Which, in places where people had the good sense to observe the vaccination and masking recommendations (or mandates) was heading that way.
And yet, for some people who were doing the right things, now hearing “oh, wait, new variant, we’re taking two steps back” is a major hit to morale. Not something that puts them in a mood for optimistic “we see the light at the end of the tunnel” speeches, but that I can see why it would cause some of them to begin asking “but when DOES it end?”.
(Plus, ISTM, Covid has also exposed that many of our medical care systems were not really in a position to face a truly widespread mass-casualty pandemic to begin with. So that will also have to be addresed.)
I haven’t been keeping up with a particular aspect of all this: is there an easily available test that’ll tell me if I’ve ever had COVID? If there were, would I have any idea when?
My parents are due to fly here tomorrow. I’m a little surprised they haven’t canceled yet because of Omicron.
Medical labs can test your antibody levels for both the vaccine and for actual COVID. It’s not exactly as easy as the at-home COVID test. You have to get your doctor to request the test and get blood drawn. The test would reveal if you had COVID, but I’m not sure if it could be used to know how long ago that was.
