Bump, because it’s a terrific question.
My understanding (and I think I’ve seen a cite of this recently, but can’t recall where) is that relative to other modes of transport, long-haul container shipping is really cheap. Some stuff goes by air, I suppose.
To the extent that those costs rise, both US exports and imports can be expected to fall relative to what they otherwise have been. This would mean an increase in manufactures and a decrease in production of comparative advantage services as the “technology” of making manufactures via international trade becomes more expensive.
Aside from the international margin costs - that is the difference between the (“free on board”) price that (say) Chinese exporters receive and the landed duty paid US price at the port gate - there is also the issue of energy intensity in production of the goods and the domestic margin services involved in facilitating transactions to the port (for exporters) and domestically. My strong guess is that US production generally is more energy intensive than production in China. That is, ignoring international transport costs, US industries would suffer a reduction in competitiveness due to increased energy prices.
But the effect on manufacturing (and maybe the overall effect) would depend on the relative energy intensities of manufacturing versus other sectors. To figure that out would require knowing about the intermediate input structure of the various sectors. A computable general equilibrium model (such as GTAP) would be the way to make a good guess.
For anyone wanting to think about this, I recommend thinking of the US current account deficit as fixed in the medium term (ie determined by US public and private saving and foreigners’ willingness to hold US assets).
So, the effect of increased international transport costs on US manufacturing is probably small, but positive (and the effect on US exportables equal and opposite). The effect on competiveness of increased energy costs is likely to be bad for US trade-oriented sectors.* How this pans out for manufacturing relative to other sectors is very difficult to say without a lot of work.
*Note that this is just bad in the narrow sense I’ve mentioned: competitiveness of certain sectors. To the extent that there are uncompensated externalities associated with energy use - and there is very good reason to think there are - increased energy costs may improve other parts of the economy