I’m not too optimistic about the future of Iraq, and it got me wondering if that country falling back into Civil War could hurt Obama in the next election.
Granted, we all know that all Obama did was execute the exit plan negotiated by Bush, but we also know that presidents get blamed all the time for things that “happened on their watch” whether it was their fault or not. One might argue that Obama didn’t negotiate strongly enough to try and keep some presence (maybe 20k soldiers or thereabouts) in Iraq past Jan 2012, and I wonder if the American electorate will buy that as an argument made by whoever the GOP candidate is going to be.
I do think this could be a problem for Obama. Not from the left, but from the undecideds. And that’s where the elections are decided (pun intended). There’s a pretty strong (around 70%) agreement with Obama on the troop withdrawal, but I have to wonder how that might change if there is carnage going on over there this summer. Particularly if US diplomats are affected (ie, bombing of the US Embassy or attacks on US personnel).
I dunno. I think the American public is largely sick of war, and tired of military misadventures around the world. I think a theme of “Let’s get our own house in order” might resonate with voters if a candidate decides to use it.
Objectively, Obama has done enough in foreign policy that I think it is going to be hard to lay a glove on him on the topic. He brought some of the troops home, gets credit for finally getting Osama bin Laden, had enough sense to avoid getting us involved in Libya…and earlier in his term I think I read that he authorized a boarding party to take the shot on one or more Somali pirates. Really don’t see much potential in trying to paint him as “soft” on the world stage.
I think this election is going to be all about domestic issues.
I don’t think it’s fair or reasonable but I’m sure that, if things go to hell there, there are going to be people asking how he could let such a thing happen. “After all the sacrifices of our troops, and all the money we’ve spent, and he just let everything fall apart…” and so on. But I think the country was war weary enough, and he’s persuasive enough (and, as a bonus, in the right) that he could sway most of those people back.
Ultimately I think that whatever happens in Iraq, the US bears the blame. But what happened happened and after the ball got rolling I don’t think any president could stop it. Delay it, maybe, but not much more. I think most people will agree with that, and of those that don’t, I think a lot of them just don’t care anymore. So I think that while it could hurt Obama, it would be temporary and eventually opinion would favor him.
With no US troops there to get shot at, I don’t think the American public cares enough about Iraq for either good or bad outcomes there to really effect Obama one way or another. It would be like a civil war in any other minor developing country.
THough I guess it might indirectly hurt him by increasing oil prices
Some of Republicans have criticized the withdrawal and I’m sure they’ll step it up if things in Iraq go to hell, but I don’t think it’s an issue that is going to catch on with voters.
If there’s some kind of spectacular attack on the embassy, that will definitely hurt Obama in the sense that any bad news hurts a sitting president, but I don’t think the Republican candidate will push it very hard, because he (or she, hi Michele) won’t want to answer the obvious question: “Are you proposing to send troops back into Iraq if you are president?”
I’ll be very upset with Obama if Iraq goes bad in the next few months. Our soldiers lost a lot of lives turning things around a few years ago. General Petraeus did some brilliant work with the surge troops in 2007. Iraq at that time was on the brink of Civil War. The surge worked and life was slowly getting back to normal in Iraq. It was still dangerous but nothing like the pre-surge days.
Yanking all the troops in only a few short months seems very risky. If Obama ruined all the sacrifice we made then he needs to be held accountable next Nov. I guess we’ll know in a few months if Iraq falls apart and begins a civil war.
AFAIK there never was a firm plan to fully withdraw from Iraq. The President was supposed to consult with the Generals and heed their advice. There were several Generals that spoke out last Spring that a full pull out was unwise. But that bridge is crossed. We’re out and I hope we never go back.
The firm plan was announced in December 2008. I’ll grant that it’s true that Obama had some control over the particulars of the withdrawal and the old agrement could have been changed if the Iraqi government had agreed to it (which it wouldn’t) and if Obama could have convinced voters to support the idea (which he couldn’t) and gotten Congress to sign off on it (don’t make me laugh).
No, the plan was worked out under Bush. But it was always kinda-sorta understood that we (Bush-type Republicans “we”) would try and get them to let us keep some troops there indefinitely. Panetta did try and negotiate that, but was not successful. I don’t think Obama really wanted him to be, so it never was made much of a big deal.
No doubt, but unless the embassy gets bombed or something (and I image its probably amongst the most heavily secured places on Earth at this point), a civil war wouldn’t involve any Americans fighting/dying. I don’t think the American public is terribly invested in Iraq at this point beyond not wanting it to absorb any more US blood and treasure.
If the place requires a constant presence of US troops and influx of US money several years on to keep it from falling apart, I’m not really sure in what sense it can be said to have “turned around” in the first place. We’ve given it most of a decade, thousands of lives, tens of thousands of casualties and something like a trillion dollars. At some point we need to step back and let whatevers going to happen happen, and I don’t see it as particularly obvious that now is going to be any worse a time then one or two or five years down the line.
He could use it to remind people of how disastrous a Republican presidency can be, and how willing they are to lie to Americans. Only a Republican would consider that atrocity to be something worth taking credit for. He could mention the Republicans’ use of torture a few times too, to illustrate how much the Republicans can’t be trusted to tell right from wrong.
Who knows what will work? Republicans are bound to criticize Obama on everything, including foreign policy. Once they paint that target on their own foreheads, Obama can go to town on them. There will doubtless be ample opportunities to criticize the Republicans on many, many fronts. I hope he takes them.