Is it possible that we could have another influenza epidemic like the one that happened in the winter of 1918-1919, which killed tens of millions of people worldwide? Aren’t we more susceptible now because we all travel more, and we have an older population?? Could anything be done to prevent such a disaster from occuring???
Thanks.
Yes, indeed, I think we could.
I just finished Laurie Garrett’s The Coming Plague, and this particular disease is discussed. It’s a pretty interesting read, and if you’re really intrigued, I’d recommend it.
You’re spot on about the travel - we are such a mobile world, that a strain that originates in India, for example, would easily be spread throughout Asia, Europe and the Americas if enough people infected were world travelers.
IIRC from the book, the US government expected a harsh strain to appear in the late 70’s (I think), and it never materialized. But they busted butt to try and develop enough flu shots to distribute to those who would be most at risk.
Absolutely. There is nothing at all that prevents it from happening.
Unless you fall into a group where immunizations are not indicated, I would always recommend you get your flu shots ASAP each year. And no, you don’t and can’t get the flu from geting the shot.
Most people either don’t know or don’t remember that as horriible as the 1914-1918 war was, the 1918-1919 infulenza epidemic killed more people (20 million plus, worldwide).
I also recommend “The Coming Plague” to all interested readers.
While you’re at it, read “Biohazard” by Ken Alibek, so you can know what people with bad intentions do deliberately (e.g. cross highly contagious smallpox with high-mortality Ebola, and make it deliverable by missile).
Yes. '97 we learned from a scary incident. Bet +75% of the pop. (present co. excepted) never knew that.
Here is a good site on a good program (with scary tale )
http://www.dde.liverpool.k12.ny.us/Whacked/WebWhacker%201.0/Influenza/trackers.html
here’s WHO’s thoughts (recapping '97)
http://www.who.int/emc/diseases/flu/influenza.pdf
While China is the most common source of flu variants, many WHO officials are really worried about places like Lagos, Nigeria. It’s one big stinking, overpopulated, economic disaster of an open sewer. Sierra Leone is worse but not as large in population.
The Next Big Killer probably won’t be an Asian flu but something Nasty from sub-sharahan Africa. Ineffective governments means it will be uncontainable locally.
Knowledgeable infectious disease epidemiologists are divided on this.
I tend to agree with the view that such an epidemic is less likely now because of increased travel.
Before WWI, most people didn’t travel much so that they weren’t exposed to a lot of different flu strains and thus had immunity only to a limited number of strains that had circulate in their neighborhoods in their lifetimes. During WWI, at the time of the Spanish flu epidemic, huge numbers of people suddenly travelled from the U.S. to Europe and within Europe, exposing them to new diseases, including the Spanish flu.
Today, we are exposed to new strains of flu every year and these are strains that may originate in Asia and spread half way around the world before they get here (hence the complicated annual process the WHO goes through to decide which strains of flu should be included in each year’s flu shot). So today, there may be a lower possibility of a strain of flu arising that is so completely different from any strain which has circulated before it that it there exist large populations which have no immunity to it.