I don’t know exactly how much instability, volatility, isolationism, authoritarianism, vengeance, and global perception of corruption it would take before the vast majority of the world would shit BRICS and the dollar would be severely harmed.
Think of the rest of the world as the Democrats in the earlier part of 2024 and the US as … Joe Biden. They’re watching. They always are.
While it’s reasonable to think that the cohort of the 0.1%-ers who actively support Trump are more invested in the US economy than most of the rest of us, it’s also reasonable to think that they’re both far more diversified, keyed in to more, better, and earlier information, and are simply better able to weather financial storms in style than the rest of us.
I also think that – to the extent that Trump actually does materially execute on an “America First” agenda, there will be significant pain:
It’s harder to rally around that American flag when it costs $72.50 than when it’s China-made and cost $3.99. And the notion of the rising tide lifting all ships … won’t happen overnight, and it won’t be a painless process for anybody.