Hmm. I don’t think I would describe Stokes as our best cricketer - that would be Root - but he is certainly more than useful, both as an asset with both bat and ball himself and to balance the side. In that sense, he’s probably one of, if not the, most important cricketer we have. having a million dollar arm is not much use if you’ve got a five cent brain though, to paraphrase Crash Davis in Bull Durham.
England’s squad has predictable flaws in its batting that have the potential to be exposed badly down under, due to the selections that have been made at the fringes. We haven’t had a settled 2, 3 and 5 for several years now and these flaws are squarely at the feet of the current regime (both the selectors for the failure to identify talented players and the development system/structure of the cricket season that is not producing enough red ball batsmen who can make it in Test match cricket). Going back to the well on Vince and Ballance is merely the latest indication of this - both have glaring flaws that were shown up the first (and in Ballance’s case, second) time, we went and selected some other blokes who didn’t work and now we’ve returned to these players who haven’t solved their issues. It is highly likely one or both will play as well. Paul Collingwood - who is going on tour in the coaching staff - has a significantly better first class average than Vince this year, is 41 and has been retired from internationals for several years. At least we have a “break glass in case of emergencies” replacement available!
Stoneman at 2 I have more time for but is right at the start of his international career and is not a given for success either. However, given the make up of the squad, with no other openers present, if he fails, he can’t be replaced within the squad. A made up injury will need to occur to draft someone else in from the concurrent England Lions tour to Oz, I would have thought. Malan falls into the same boat, as far as I am concerned. We’re almost certainly carrying two empty shirts in the squad and have high potential for a third and fourth.
The gameplan for the Oz bowlers is thus very simple - but is the same as the book has been on England for the last several years. Pile the pressure on Cook and Root and try to get them cheaply. Very quickly you’ll have us 100-5 and the lower middle order (which may wind up being without Stokes) will have to bail like hell to get anything like a competitive total. Then, when we’ve scored less than 300, go to work methodically with the bat, build a score and knock us over in the second dig.
That they haven’t addressed these flaws is, if you’ll excuse the phrase, criminal but it was unlikely that they’d be able to either. No one is really sticking their hands up who hasn’t either a) failed before, b) is deemed not ready and they want to blood them on the Lions tour (people like Joe Clarke) or c) have been in bad form and are now injured just as they looked like they were getting it back (Haseeb Hameed). So in one sense, I’m not surprised about this (indeed, even before the announcement I was expecting 4-1 or 5-0 against us), but it is definitely disheartening.
The bowlers - they collectively don’t have the best of records in Oz, of those who’ve played - and don’t generally have the skills you’d think of as likely to cause problems down under. Mo is going to have to bowl brilliantly, they’re hugely relying on Crane’s experience in Sheffield Shield last year (as he has not been pulling up trees otherwise) and the rest of them are swing bowlers, going to a country using a ball that doesn’t swing after about 15-20 overs. Unless they can get it to reverse, they’re in trouble - and lack someone of express pace to mix things up. Again, though, this was predictable. Not many of those types of bowlers knocking around at the minute up here.
So yes. Not ideal. I am not a big believer in the “best batsman must play at 3” shibboleth - there are too many examples where teams have prospered with their best batsman playing elsewhere - but the best England team in my view out of that squad is:
Cook, Stoneman, Root*, Bairstow, Malan, Stokes, Ali, Foakes+, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
There’s no chance it gets picked. Root doesn’t want to play 3, throwing Foakes in for debut in Brisbane is possibly suicidal (even if he is a better bat in my view than either Vince or Ballance) and Stokes may well be on bail awaiting trial and thus not travelling. Vince or Ballance will likely play 3 and if Stokes is unavailable, Vince or Ballance will likely bat 5 or 6 with Bairstow keeping and dropping back to 7. That team gets smashed. My team above still gets beaten, but, with a fair wind, might nick a Test somewhere.