Does anyone know, has anyone ever pinned down actual hard numbers (or at least a broad percentage range) as to when an innovation/community/ whatever achieves critical mass?
I’ve done a bit of research into this and uncovered many papers speaking of how critical mass is achieved, threshold theory and all that. But no actual hard number or even range, of when critical mass is achieved. How many millions had to have a phone before the phone suddenly became a must have and its adoption really rocketed?
You have to wait for enough Dopers to show up.
There’s probably no hard and fast number, it would vary for each item with many factors that would influence the outcome.
No such number exists. Not in theory, not in actuality. No two people agree when an idea or product achieves critical mass, because no two people can even define what that term means. It’s a buzzword, not a piece of science.
For sufficiently useful networking technology, my WAG is that critical mass (if defined as “large enough uptake that it’s clear that eventually everyone will be using it”) is somewhere between 10 and 25% of the target population.
Networking tech is somewhat special, though, because its usefulness grows with the number of people using it.
Actually, calculating the “critical mass” for a particular element in a given geometric configuration is pretty easy, requiring only the natural neutron flux rate and energy, the neutron capture cross section, and geometry.
However, that’s physics. The o.p. is asking a more general question about the metaphorical “critical mass” of ideas or adoptees, which is a very vague concept. In order to answer this question you’d need to define the premise, i.e. what you mean by “achieving” critical mass in quantitative terms. Is it getting a plurality or majority of market share? Is it when a product name achieves explicit or implicit generic status (“kleenex,” “coke”, “podcast”)?
This is really a marketing science question, and like most such questions, the answers depend upon who you are talking to rather than any hard figures and facts.
In San Francisco, Critical Mass is the dirge of the commuter.
Here is what they say they are:
And while they claim this:
It is exactly the opposit. I have seen bicyclists lie down in the middle of the street with their bikes so that hundreds and hundreds (if not thousands) of other riders can ignore the rules of the road (and red lights) to block traffic for hours.
