Cuba strikes oil!

Well, sure, because he’s not facing another election. Had this come up in early 2004, though…

But it’s not really up to Bush. It’s mostly up to the House and Senate. And most of them are going to want to run again, and some of them are from Florida. Plus a good number of them are going to care about which way Florida goes '08, regardless of who the Republican presidential candidate is.

I have absolutely no idea which way this will end up going.

Maybe Castro will finally kick the bucket… :stuck_out_tongue:

That would probably solve things.

-XT

Why? Isn’t Raul more committed to communism than Fidel is? Course, he’s pretty old too…

I don’t know…is he? I always thought he was more moderate (‘moderate’ being relative of course).

Of course, as you say…he’s rather getting up there as well so he may not last too long either.

-XT

Maybe this will work out for the best all around. Oil will make Cuba more prosperous, whoever buys it. Assuming a transition to democracy in Cuba is inevitable, the more prosperous Cuba is at the time the smoother the transition will go. Compare the relatively prosperous Warsaw Pact states with the USSR proper.

Of course, some would argue the only way to bring down the Communist government is to starve the island’s economy, and prosperity just makes the people more complacent and Castro’s regime stronger. That’s the thinking behind the whole embargo.

Well, whatever else happens, I do hope xtisme will soon get his cigars! :slight_smile:

I don’t know, I can’t help but think that his death will create a lot of problems.

Is there anyone or anything in Cuba which can effectively compete with the Communist party for power? It doesn’t seem that way to me. There may be a terrific struggle for power within the party following Castro’s death, but I doubt there’ll be chaos in the streets.

But, hey, I didn’t expect the Soviet Union to fall, either …

Well, there’s the argument I’ve heard that the Cuban exiles will immediately demand a US backed return to power. That would produce chaos.

After Stalin died, leadership of the USSR became more collegial – there was always a head guy, but he was never a dictator the way Stalin had been. ([url=]Khrushchev was ousted in a sort of bloodless Party coup – and lived, though he remained under house arrest the rest of his life.) Maybe it’ll work out that way.

Needs, no. But the sugar industry in Florida would have serious objections to a wholesale end to the embargo on Cuban goods.

Indeed! :slight_smile:

I kinda resent the clout Big Sugar has in this state. A few years ago there was a tax proposal on the ballot – a special tax on sugar, the money to go to Everglades restoration (sugar cultivation uses up the land like you wouldn’t believe and has caused the 'Glades a lot of damage). It failed – after the sugar companies ran an ad portraying “family” sugar farmers who feared being put out of business by the tax. In fact, nearly all the sugarcane grown in this state is grown on giant agribiz plantations, and planted and harvested by underpaid Haitian, Mexican, and Central American migrant workers of doubtful immigration status. Even in Cuba, the people who work the sugar fields probably are better off.

I would disagree,
both venezuelan and the current production from Cuba is heavy and sour, needing somewhat specialised refining and desulphurisation (if that is a word). This is the same case for Russian Ural oil and most of what is produced in the Middle East region.

Whilst oil is regarded as a fungible commodity (one bbl is the same as another) there is considerable variation in the qualities of oil. The actual price that you buy your full super tanker at would be dependent on where it came from and relative to one of 3 major benchmarks (WTI Brent and Middle East basket). Where you can sell it will be partially dependent on the refining capacity available.

So the flavour of oil from Cuba will determine how much it goes for and where it can be effectivly refined and sold. Curent cuban oil would be sold for a discount. Venuzuala is the most likely place to get the oil refined, and maybe the ever so friendly mr Chavez would loan them a couple of process trains asuming he has anyone left competent enough to run the refinaries. In my opinion I don’t see many US majors or independents rushing to develop these heavy reserves.

Cuba would like to find some light sweet crude but current expectations are that it would only be found in the deeper water regions of the Cuba basin. To my knowledge (not a huge) it is not clear if the geological structures that provide the deepwater gulf of mexico oil light crude and condensate extend to the cuba basin. If they did then it is going to be expensive, very very expensive, to develop. The people with the cash and (very importantly) the technical knowlege to develop these potential fields are the likes of Exxon, BP, Shell. They in turn are unlikly to start shelling out the cash with the uncertain future political stability. Canadian companies may have the exploration rights to start shooting seismic and some test drilling, but full scale devolpment of a deepwater field may require additional partners.

If the political issues go away (and geology colludes) a light cuban crude would have an excellent market, close to many refineries in the US that could handle it, short transit times and away from the other gulf.

To my mind the suggestions that US companies could participate in cuban exploration is partially the US gov holding out a carrot to the next leader of cuba - play nice and there will be a huge wadges of cash for development, not a million miles away from the situation in libya. It will be up to Cuba to negotiate its slice of the revenues through tax or what ever method it choses.

With full scale development the doors will have to open up to all other industries, the development could not go ahead in the absence of other support industries. Well it could but it would be even more expensive as in west africa.

So to end the waffle and give my thoughts on the question asked, is it a good idea, I would say so. The US can clearly get along with old enemies (Libya) so no reason why it can’t do the same with Cuba.

As the old saying goes, demand into one hand and crap into the other and see which one fills up first.

American politicians who have a history of pandering to the Florida Cuban refugee bloc are going to be behind the eight ball when Castro kicks off and they have to explain that, no, the Marines aren’t going in to get Grandpa’s stuff back. Maybe they’d be better off biting the bullet a little at a time, starting with this oil thing.

What Steve said. Plus, after Iraq, an invasion or other military action against Cuba is really gonna be hard to sell.

But Cuba would be a fun invasion! Practically a vacation after Iraq! All those hot chicks, hot music, dance clubs, mojitos . . .

In other news, Fidel has been hospitalised and has turned over provisional control of the country to his brother.

Doesn’t sound life threatening…but then, who knows how much truth is in the statement?

-XT

!!!

Time for a new thread!

Yes probably, but I would say the thread remains valid for discussion of the original question.

With a hoard of docs trying to get an elastoplast on FCs gut and a potential change of leadership, it all works out rather well. FC does not have to back down, the US does not have to be seen to compromise and deal with FC and the new guy (well slightly less old guy) can step in and claim a victory for himself and change with the times without loosing face.
Largish oil turns up and invests a bucket of cash followed by other ancillary industries, tourism should be ok on its own and thus ends one of the more pointless embargos with face saved all around and a few can enjoy puffing away.
Everyone gets what they need and live happily ever after.

All cuba needs to do is ensure that they get suitable royalties (comradies?), suitable participation in the technical training and supplying goods and services to largish oil, and generally make sure when the wells run dry the cash has not been squandered. Only Norway has really been succsessful at that so far.
Who knows , maybe the Cubans wil be better off.