Cuba - what happens after Castro dies?

Great Debates
21

Why exactly would the mafia run the casinos? They don’t run any casinos in the US anymore, now that casino gambling is pretty much legal everywhere.

It seems much more likely that if any organized crime runs a casino in Cuba that it will be a Cuban mafia that runs it, and that mafia is likely to be made up of former communist officials. But more likely is that any casinos will be perfectly above board, and run by multinational corporations. The casinos in Vegas aren’t run by organized crime, the mob only runs casinos that are illegal or quasi-legal.

22

Is it possible that Communism might persist, in one form or another, after Castro’s death? Oh, I admit its generally done pretty poorly for the people (although probably better than they were pre-Castro), but it doe provide some benefits, such as a fairly comprehensive health system (as I understand it). Will the Cuban people be so willing to throw that away in exchange for a flood of American investment- there is, for example, a fairly substantial minority of Russians, say, who would like to reintroduce Communism. I’m not saying the Communist regime ought to or will persist, but I would not be that suprised if socialised elements stayed on.

23

It’s possible that the communist party will survive the present government, but in Cuba the party in general is seen as ineffective and anachronistic so it’s likely to be a minority party with a fairly aged membership.

Keep in mind that Castro has been very careful about attributing the “benefits” you mention, (and that’s a separate discussion), not to communism but to the Revolution. So Cubans in general do not see Communism as a provider and protector.

24

I’m thinking the Cuban people, if they get a chance to freely choose, will choose some form of democratic socialism. I.e., the Communist Party will no longer be in control, but OTOH they won’t simply and immediately privatize every single economic function that’s now state-run, like the Eastern European states did (or like the “pinata” in post-Sandinista Nicaragua); and what state economy remains will be answerable to freely and fairly elected multiparty assemblies. So they won’t wind up like an Eastern European post-Communist kleptocracy.

That’s a best-case scenario. Every other conceivable outcome would be . . . worse.

25

I was in Cuba a couple of weeks ago, and had a brief conversation with two Cuban workers…they were both artists doing murals and sculpture work at the resort I was staying at.

In their words, Cubans are not communists.

If the population had a choice, they would probably move towards a social democracy - they have a strong attachment to Canada and I think they would try and model themselves after Canada.

As a whole, there is a lot of anger and hatred towards Americans, because they feel that a lot of their poverty and suffering is due to US policy (basically, if the Cuban government didn’t cause it then the Americans must have). I admit to not knowing enough about this to have an opinion on it, I’m just repeating what they said!

They dream of the day Castro will die, because as a whole, the population feels things will change for the better once hes gone, but there’s a fear, repeated by a few people, that he’ll “live to be 100” and that as a result, they might not see the changes. One thing they seemed to talk about most wasn’t a desire for more money, better homes or better food, but to simply have the ability to travel and see the world. Though they were talking to tourists, so I guess that’s a more obvious topic to bring up.

They are an educated population, something like 95% are literate, pretty much everyone has a chance to go to university, but there are just no jobs. The men we were talking to told us one of the bartenders where we were was an engineer, and one of the waitresses had a medical background (but she wasn’t a doctor).

I don’t really post in GD because I never know what to say, and this post is probably somewhat random and probably doesn’t contribute much to the topic. I just wanted to share this enlightening conversation with you. I wish I could remember more clearly what these guys said about life in Cuba, and their hopes for the country. Language barriers and alcohol affected the conversation and my memory, it seems!

26

Do any of you see the expatriated Cubans living in southern Florida going back after Castro dies to return to their homeland (or help liberate it)? Or will these people want to get their families out?

I see Cuba having a difficult time transitioning into a democracy of some kind if Castro’s regime has everything in place to keep the machine rolling. I’m wondering if different military factions will fight it out, since they have all the weapons?

27

If Cuba plunges into gridlock after Castro’s death, it’s almost certain to come out pro-US. If it happens within the next couple years, you can bet your ass that BushCo will be there, smiling about it, spreading dollar diplomacy.

I’ve heard that the Revolution will live on.

I’ve also heard from second hand sources that US investors have been shipped in under the cover of night to parcel up the island and start action the second Fidel dies. I’ve got no clue at all if it’s true or not, but I’ll safely say that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

28

I think we should start a pool on who will go first, Castro or Dick Clark.

29

I’ve got to say that you need to ask those sources for a cite, that’s just ridiculous. For one thing, as has been discussed in previous posts, no one expects change in Cuba to happen “the second Castro dies”. And more to the point, what makes you think Cuba is such a wonderful investment? No real infrastructure to speak of, outdated roads, phones and electrical systems. Those hypothetical investors should be jumping into Dominican Republican if they had any brains.

30

I think you’re underestimating your memory and GD posting skills. You just about nailed the Cuban experience. The one part that was most likely tainted was the bit about “anger and hatred towards americans”. Next time you’re in Cuba take a ride by the US interests section in Havana, the lines going around the block of people waiting to apply for visas to emigrate to the US will tell you how Cubans feel about the USA.

31

These sources would be my parents. They’ve spoken to a few people who have reportedly done said actions. They said they’ve ferried some “investors” to Cuba.

I was also one of the ones that said that I don’t expect everything in Cuba to change overnight the second Fidel dies.

What makes it a wonderful investment? It’s got the potential to be a very popular vacation destination with good farming land, history, weather, history, and mystique.

Personally, I don’t invest a lot of stock in this information. I’m simply relating it.

32

These sources would be my parents. They’ve spoken to a few people who have reportedly done said actions. They said they’ve ferried some “investors” to Cuba.

I was also one of the ones that said that I don’t expect everything in Cuba to change overnight the second Fidel dies.

What makes it a wonderful investment? It’s got the potential to be a very popular vacation destination with good farming land, history, weather, history, and mystique.

Personally, I don’t invest a lot of stock in this information. I’m simply relating it.

33

Gr. Stupid hamsters ate my first response.

In any case, the sources are my parents who talked to people in Key West that claim to have been doing the ferrying. I don’t think it’s necessarily true. I don’t see giant changes happening the second Castro dies. I said so earlier in the thread.

Why’s Cuba a good investment? The potential for it being a hot tourist destination are immense. History, weather, culture, location, etc. The infrastructure there isn’t amazing at all, but it can and will be changed if the political climate changes markedly. Besides, do you think the US embargo had nothing at all to do with the current situation there?

I’d venture to say, and it’s just a pretty uninformed guess on this point, that Cuba would make a much better destination than the Dominican Republic would.

34

Okay, hamsters didn’t eat my first (two??) responses.

Damn.

35

Well, I don’t have any fabulous insights to add to the debate, but I can add in my own experiences of 3 trips to Cuba over the last 7 years.

Firstly, Cubans aren’t great fans of talking to foreigners about Cuban politics, from my experience. Call it fear of the Government, or reluctance to attract criticism (they’re very proud of their country), whatever, I can’t say, but that’s my experience.

One thing I would say is that they’re fiercely proud of the revolution and the positive impact it had compared with what they had before. However, they realise how poor they are and resent the inability to engage in commerce and improve their lot, which leads me to suspect they’d prefer a more democratic ‘western’ style government. In the tourist centres, Cubans are getting a taste for what foreign investment and tourism might bring, and they’re hungry for it.

What’s more, they’re a highly educated population with many English speakers, which makes them well-placed to jump on the global capitalist bandwagon.

Foreign companies are dying to get a stronger foothold in Cuba - a country rich in natural resources with an educated and amenable population.

To say they hate Americans is just plain wrong. They don’t. They admire the US for it’s wealth and freedoms and wish they had (more) US visitors. They blame the US Goverment for many of their ills, but that’s hardy suprising when you’ve seen Cuban TV (8 hour lectures by Fidel and his cronies).

From my experince, they’re nervous and excited at the thought of Fidel dying in equal measure. Excited because they see it as the opportunity to fulfil their dreams, and nervous because of the cronies he leaves behind. They fear a power vacuum, and what that might hold. They may not love Fidel, but they respect him - for them he means stability and a powerful voice. They have very little respect for the people below him.

Wow, my first great debates post. Be kind to me…

36

Closer, too. A few years ago, visiting Miami for a job interview, I heard a young Cuban-American woman in the office opine that some day, not only will Cuba be a state of the U.S., but a bridge will be built across the Florida Straits from Key West to Havana. A bridge you could drive cars across.

I don’t think a 106-mile bridge would be practical.* But it does remind you of how easily accessible Cuba is/would be by sea and by air.
*OTOH, I’ve speculated about the possibility of a rail tunnel. If they can dig a 31-mile tunnel under the English Channel . . . and they’re looking at building one under the Straits of Gibraltar, linking Morocco and Spain, Europe and Africa . . . (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3317149.stm) . . .

37

How can you beat that location? It’s a big enough land with a rich enough history and it’s got, dare I say it, a similar mystique to it as China (as far as the “I can’t be accessed” mystique" goes)

I don’t want to marginalize what the potential impact would be when Castro is gone, but it could be very interesting.

38

Here’s another thing: In Miami, we have a lot of Cuban-Americans. And they know a lot about Cuba, and not just from their grandparents’ stories. They follow Cuban events, apparently. Anything important that happens in Cuba is front-page news in the Miami Herald. (I formerly lived in Tampa, which has a much older Cuban-American community dating from the early 20th Century, when Tampa had a lot of cigar factories; and they do not seem to pay nearly as much attention to Cuba as the Miami Cubans do.) And a lot of Cuban-Americans are prosperous businesscritters. As soon as it becomes possible to seek business opportunities in Cuba, they’re sure as hell going to try, and, with their knowledge of conditions on the ground, they’ll have a head start on other entrepreneurs.

39

You mean Castro and his friends or Battista and his friends?

40

Not to speak for Paul, but my guess is that he means Castro and friends. Seeing as how Batista himself died in 1975, and Castro has been in power since 1958 there are bound to be few surviving friends of Batista.