I have no idea in which forum this question should go…
but since Castro is now 76 years old, how will Cuba’s political structure and relationship to the U.S. change when he dies?
Well, Raul’s testicles were cut off by Batista’s men. It sounds odd, but there really is a cult of personality thing in Latin America dating back to Bolivar, and I don’t think they’ll respect a man without testicles, which I assume was part of Batista’s reason for doing it.
So I’m guessing control will pass out of the Castros’ hands. That satisfies only one element of the Helms-Burton Act, though. I think the sticking point will be the return of the confiscated properties, the American-owned property that was “nationalized” by the Commies.
I expect Helms-Burton will be amended through additional legislation to eliminate that requirement, allowing for recognition of Cuba on somewhat less stringent requirements, and the lure of the money that could be generated by a thriving tourist industry in Cuba and cigar import industry here in the US will bring down the walls between us.
The Cubans I talked to were themselves unsure of the future, but the general consensus was that a gradual drift towards a democratic free-market economy was inevitable. Life is hard and Cuba is still a Third World country where many goods are rationed, but the healthcare and education systems are incredibly effective given their small budgets; a lesson to the West. The people love learning and are remarkably optimistic, perhaps with good cause since Cuba is rich in resources and should profit from two-way trade once America lifts its embargo. I hope that this prosperity does not diminish their deep sense of social responsibility.
My advice to anyone with strong preconceptions about Cuba is to go there.
You do know that there is a board rule that forbids endorsing and encouraging acts that are illegal under US law?
Presumably the US Senate have been banned, after their two-fingered salute to the President?
I thought you could go there if you went to Mexico first, IIRC that’s what Lee Oswald was trying to do in the months preceding the assassination. But I don’t know if it’s travel by American citizens to Cuba that’s prohibited, or travel directly there.
I’ve seen articles by journalists in American publications about Cuba, so surely they’re getting there somehow.
Its not illegal for me to go to Cuba. If Sentient Meat wasnt specifically urging ppl for whom it is illegal (ie. Americans) then I cant see that he breaking the forum rules.
Yep, this here is the internet, a swell invention that allows even non-US citizens to post and gather information on here. US law generally only applies for those that are on US soil or are US born citizens.
I know, many people have Americentric views, and no doubt are surprised that the rest of the world has the technology for electricity and can smuggle a few computers out of America, but it happens. 
Holy hijack, Batman. 
I believe the regime has many policies and plans already in place to keep the current status quo ticking over and repel the forces of change even after the death of Castro.
This is all guesswork as there are a plethora of opinion and misinformation out there (nothing polarises opinion like communism), but in my opinion any fundamental change will come slow, much like in post-Maoist China. Large corporations will gain a foothold and encourage free markets and competition (and exploitation?) but the existing government structures will still attempt to maintain a strict hold on things for the foreseeable future. Whether they succeed or not is impossible to predict. A lot will depend on the reaction of the Cuban Armed forces and who they choose to side with in the aftermath of Castro’s death.
RexDart, can you (or others) expand more on the expectations of the US Government with regard to confiscated US properties - 50+ years on they cannot seriously expect to have the land returned in the event of Castro’s death? Or do they?
This is just not true. Well, it may be true but it’s certainly not part of any Cuban history I know. The rumor about Raul Castro is that he is gay, and that woudl certainly hamper his ability to govern.
I just realized that what follows may be TMI for many.
You might be thinking of a story of the aftermath of the assault on Moncada barracks by Castro and a group of students in 1953. After the attack was crushed by Batista’s soldiers a number of attrocities were committed. Among them was the killing and torturing of some of the students, and among the killed was one Victor Torres, and his severed testicles were shown to his girlfriend, the sister of another of the attackers. She was also shown the severed eyes of her brother. Very sad. She eventually rose in Castro’s government as part of the Women’s Workers Union but committed suicide after the Mariel boatlift, supposedly depressed about the open rejection of the Revolution by so many.
This site has a pretty good run down of the restrictions on travel to Cuba, or you can just go to this US government site for the official version. The short of it is that yes you can travel to Cuba, but only after getting a license from the US Treasury and there are any number of travel licenses you can obtain. However travelling through a third country is NOT legal for US citizens.
I second your sentiment advising anyone who wants to see the real Cuba to travel there, however if you do, make sure you do see the real Cuba, not just the resorts.
As for Cuba being resource rich, I’m sorry but this is not so. Cuba has just announced it is negotiatin purchasin Sugar from the US . Think about that, Cuba purchasing sugar. The inefficiencies of a centralized production system are embarrasingly evident in Cuba. Right now Cuba has two main sources of income tourism and foreign remittances, each of which bring in about 1 billion US$ a year. That’s it.
As I understand the US government’s policy as expressed in the Cuba Solidarity act of 1995 is that US firms and citizens may seek compensation in US courts from foreign businesses that not operate in that property, see here for more detail.
My own guess is that should the Cuban government change to a democratic model, the US government is likely to ammend that law and force compensation to be sought in Cuban courts. At least that’s what I would do if I was in charge.
Agreed, bayonet, I should perhaps have said “rich in potential assets”. The infrastructure is utterly decrepit, and so whatever resources are available are essentially squandered.
And yes, the Varadero peninsula is no more “Cuba” than Camp Delta in Guantanemo Bay. A thorough exploration of Havana is essential to any trip.
Well, this is certainly not unprecedented. Right now, Germans expelled from Czechoslovakia under the “Benes Decrees” in 1948 are seeking return of confiscated property, and that was 55 years ago. Germans who fled to Western Germany after WWII have gotten back property confiscated by the East German government, though admittedly the time period there was only around 45 years.
And, of course, Holocaust survivors are seeking and, in some cases receiving, life insurance policies and Swiss bank deposits made some 60 years ago.
I’m not saying that it is good or bad policy to demand the return of property confiscated by Castro. I am saying that it isn’t an absurd policy.
Sua
My brother is a very good friend of the BACARDI family (of the Cuban rum distillery). All of the Cuban-American leaders (like Mr. Bacardi), and his friends in Miami have organized a provisional government, which will take over when the old bastard (Castro) goes to hell at last! The first step will be to restore the republic, and restore the constitution. Then, the economy will be privatized, and the communists will be rounded up and given fair trials for their numerous crimes.
Hopefully, Cuba will begin functioning normally within a few years, and the communist nightmare will be a thing of the past!
All sorts of parallels might be drawn on the confiscation issue, Iraq and Palestine perhaps being particularly uncomfortable. Britain and France simply drew a line under the Suez Crisis (under the advisement of the US) and abandoned the idea of being recompensed.
As for Americans not being able to visit Cuba via a third country, teh BBC says:
Are they mistaken?
Thanks for the info, Sua.
I didn’t mean to sound like I thought it was completely absurd to seek compensation for this form of loss. I initially read Rexdart’s post, especially the comment “return of the confiscated properties” as though any claims would be for actual physical land to be returned, which would probably be unfeasible or unworkable due to modern ownership. But businesses being remunerated for the value of property taken may certainly be worth perusing in this instance.
It is probably not meant to, but that scenario sounds to me just like swapping one unelected government for another. Who says the people of Cuba would lend support, even initially, to the self-elected Miami Cubans on their return?
One of my Dad’s best friends, American-born but with a Cuban mother, is legally allowed to go there to visit relatives.
However, he went through Mexico anyway to be with his buddies, who were railfans checking out the old equipment running there and had to do the third-country thing. 
bayonet1976, I’m glad you’re on this board; I always like your stuff and it’s invaluable to have input from a genuine Cuban. So, if Raul is Castro’s designated successor, who’s after him? Does Castro have sons (I think his illegitimate daughter has fled to America)?
They are indeed, if they’re implying that the travel to Cuba took place without licensing from Treasury. There are not many direct flights to Cuba from the US, so going through a third country, like Canada, Mexico, or the Bahamas is not unusual, but in order for those trips to be legal you must be licensed, from this
this government site :