Handicapping the rest of the field (after watching my first full episode this season):
Pamela Anderson: All things considered, holding up okay. She had some serious baggage coming in, never mind a pretty big physical disadvantage. (All jokes aside, top-heaviness is a major handicap to challenging maneuvers; there’s a reason you don’t see any stacked gymnasts.) She’s handled it with class and shown fluidity and, dare I say it, sexiness on the floor. Sadly, it looks like she’s on her way out. Don’t read too much into the close call (lots of contestants have had the Bice Scare and roared back), but all it takes is one little slipup and the voters are going to pounce.
Jake Pavelka: He’s been wonderfully sunny all season long, and he’s one of the very few contestants who realizes just how unimportant this whole thing is. He doesn’t fret or cry or scream, he just goes out there and does his thing. He won’t make it all the way to the final, so best enjoy the ride while it lasts.
Evan Lysacek: By far the man to beat going in. The only problem is that it doesn’t matter how good you are going in, it’s the stretch run where you need to pull out the stops. He’s done a fantastic job juggling his real job and DWTS, but how long can he keep it up? I love watching him, and yes, he looks like a lock for the final, but I can’t shake the sinking dread that the harsh no carryover, no breaks, no second chances reality of this show will be his undoing.
Erin Andrews: Looking like an also-ran. Not awful, but not great either; at some point she’s simply going to run out of worse contestants.
Nicole Scherzinger: The total package - elegance, speed, agility, precision, energy, sultriness, and beauty. If she can drum up fan support when it matters, she’s a mortal lock. But that’s a HUGE if for a show that trumpets inspirations for us all and gritty underdogs and brave heroes and worthy champions trying to make a difference, and has been absolutely wallowing in this glurge lately (sheesh, is this a reality show or the Special Olympics?). Unless something happens to make a lot of people really start liking her, it’s going to be an uphill battle.
Chad Ochocinco: The problem with football players is that they’re so BIG. It’s just not easy to do those steps and turns and lifts with such long limbs. Chad looks to be in exactly the same boat as that Dolphin that other season. He’s trying hard, but there’s a limit to how delicate an NFL wide receiver can be. He’s popular, but not massively so. Most likely will fade a bit and then get caught by the floor.
Niecy Walsh: I’m with the consensus here. Learn a new song, dammit. Aside from that, well, she’s simply not that good. Being so massive means that a lot of elements (like lifts) are completely out of the question, and she can’t ride jiggle physics forever. Could be gone as early as next week, and I won’t miss her.
In summary, it’s still way up in the air. I’m leaning ever so microscopically toward Evan, but I’m not putting a dime on it.
(I think I’m missing someone. I’ll be fully caught up next week.)