Does the Banker on DOND know the value in all of the cases ((And therefore how much the contestant has in the case he or she picked)) ahead of time?
Or is the Banker payment offers simply some drawn out, but routine equation?
I would like to think it is some actuarial algorithm but something tells me they know what is in every briefcase.
According to the network, nobody knows what is in each case. The amounts are put in by a third party. The banker works off of a very simple expected outcome formula.
I would like to state for the record that while I don’t know the answer, this has to be the dumbest game show I’ve ever seen.
Good thing they make up for it with all the cleavage.
Never saw Trump Card I take it?
Or You’re In The Picture, for that matter…
I actually enjoy watching it. I DVR it so I can literally watch the hour long episode in 20 minutes. I FF through commercials and put the show itself on double time, putting it back to real time every so often when they talk onstage.
The math itself is rather simple. To find out the true expected value (EV) you take the $ amount in the cases left and divide by the # of cases left.
The amount the banker offers varies from the EV, most often being on the low side. In the first few rounds it’s probably at 1/4 your EV. In the middle few rounds it’s at around 1/2 your EV. With four cases left, the bank tends to offer an exact EV match. If contestants continue to press their luck and get it down to two cases the bank’s offer is, for once, actually higher than EV.
The strategy involved is a little more complex. Here’s a Cliff’s Notes version I came up with tonight: Don’t take any offer before you get down to 11 cases. After that, if the number of cases left that are high than the banker’s offer is MORE than the number of total cases you have left to open, you can continue playing.
For instance, with 11 cases left, an offer of $50,000, and 4 cases higher than $50,000 on the board, you can safely continue to choose.
If you have 11 cases left, the offer is still $50,000 and two cases higher, you can still go on…but you’re risking losing everything by doing so.
Not necessarily. Tonight the lady was down to two cases, $500 and $750. The offer was $600. I think there’s quite a bit randomness throughout, with the offer generally being negative EV.
Flash version
in some aspects this show is pretty retarded (what’s next, a show where contestants spend 20 minutes consulting with family over whether to choose heads or tails?) but the math makes it interesting, and I’m a statistics nut. I just really can’t stand the contestants and their families actually thinking there’s some kind of skill in which case to pick next. It’s COMPLETELY random. If I were on the show, I’d want case 13 #1 because the 13th is my birthday and #2 the lovely Layla would get to hand it to me, and then I’d start opening cases beginning with 1-6 and hoping #24 has the $750,000. Of course, it’s this kind of attitude that would mean I’d never be on the show, since it caters to idiots and they want idiot contestants. This show cannot be watched without a DVR or Tivo to fast forward through the crap.
Think about it though, the odds of somebody actually winning $1,000,000 are about 1 in 125. NOBODY with any brains in their head would turn down a $500,000 offer if their last two cases were the $1,000,000 case and anything on the left side. It’s a 50/50 shot, but there’s just too much on the line. Even if it were $50,000 and $1,000,000 and they got at $750,000 offer, most contestants would take the offer. The ONLY way somebody would actually win the $1,000,000 is if the only two cases left are the $1,000,000 and something over $100,000. At that point, even if you pick the wrong case, you still walk away with a ton of money. However, even in those cases (pardon the pun), the offer might be too tempting to walk away from. I have a feeling it’s going to be a LONG time before we see somebody win the million…even if a contestant does decide to go for it, there’s still a 50% chance they’ll pick the wrong case.
Eleusis the offer tonight on the last case was $650 which is slightly above the $625 average of 500 and 750.
fusoya, that’s something I’m not sure the producers have really thought through. The only time I could see someone actually picking the million dollar case is when it’s down to it and the $750,000 case.
On a purely mathematical basis it’s going to happen 1/325 times. That alone is three years worth of shows. But to even get to that point we’ve stopped talking pure math.
For instance, a contestant with four cases left and the choice of 1M, 750K, $1 and $5 might choose the guaranteed 400K rather than risk hitting the million and losing 200K off their next offer.
But again pure math alone says we could have 3 years and no million dollar winner. That’s what viewers are tuning in for, though. To see that jackpot get hit. Who’s going to be watching this show three years from now?
There was a guy on the UK show who did this. The banker’s took up the theme, and made an early offer of £1234, which at least showed there’s a human element somewhere in the system.
Well it’s more like they want contestants who are animated. This is show business, after all. How entertaining would it be to watch you ho-hum rattle numbers in sequential order? 
Elton John
Classic Rock
Classical
Choirs
Country/Pop
I’ll take non sequiturs for a thousand, Alex. Oh, damn. Wrong show AGAIN!
Crap. That was supposed to go in the five categories thread. Sorry everyone.
That link led me to the link of shows cancelled after one episode, including. . .
*Heil Honey I’m Home! * : 1990 comedy show on British Satellite Broadcasting in which Adolf Hitler and Eva Braun have survived the war and are living in 1950s New York City next door to a Jewish couple.
WTF? Great title, though.
[/hijack]
Well, as long as we are hijacking this thread, I should mention that I remember seeing the one episode of Heil Honey I’m home. I was 10 years old and it was my moms idea to watch. She somehow totally missed the title pun and thought it was going to be a satire on 50s sitcoms that began with Hi Honey I’m Home. I think we made it through one act before my parents decided we should see what else is on.
I doubt the show will be on in three years. I am sorry I don’t have the cite available, but I saw an article about the show and the NBC executive admitted he did not really think this show had a long life. I guess that is why they went ahead and scheduled it for three times a week. They want to milk it for all they can before it has run its course.
Just went in and played the Flash version again - picked case #20 and rode it all the way through. $1,000,000, baby.
Does anyone know the details of the banker’s offer? I’m tempted to write up computer program to test different algorithms, but I’ll need a specific formula for the offer.
Or, anyone know enough about Flash programs to extract it from there?