De'endee Mafia

Okay, here it goes.

caveats:

  1. i am obviously assuming i am TOWN here.
  2. i won’t be much quoting and going over most of the past Days, if at all
  3. there will be metagaming

short version:

my first reaction was choie must be scum for the late vote for me. even after MentalGuy flipped town, i was still suspicious of her. after a while, i went all paranoid and thought that she and Weedy could have put off this charade to appear they were on opposite sides when they were actually both scummy scum. i considered their time zones. Weedy is in Oz and choie is in the US (and yes, I am in the Philippines). it would have taken a hell a lot commitment to do this and would put one in harm’s way. the other would try to live on the town cred, if any, that she received. so, if indeed you are both scum, i tip my hat off to you both.

since both were suspicious of the other and protecting people they believed were town, i believe they are both town.

therefore, the remaining two players, Stanislaus and USCDiver are scum.

Note: it is possible that choie or Weedy is scum but my long version will add more insight into my decision.
long version:

i looked back at some stuff that has been bothering me but didn’t have time to address.

  1. why NK Pizza and Normal before Inner?

Inner is power role and logically he should have been the one to NK first not last among this three. sure, he could be blocked by the roleblocker but why bother? the only reason i could find was that Pizza and Normal are very good and experienced players. they are very analytical to boot. now, this is not to put down Inner. he is a good and experienced player as well but those two are downright scary. i believe that despite their initial mistakes, they would have caught on to who the scum were.

so what does scum do aside from NKing in a strange order? they also leave the most inexperienced players. this is not a put down of choie or Weedy’s abilities, just a statement of their inexperience. if you will recall, if it were an all newbie scum team, i said that it would be choie, Weedy and Hirka because this is choie’s first, Weedy’s second, just like Hirka. they also left me who is in maybe my 12th game. so i’d be the 4th most inexperienced. scum are trying to stack the odds in their favor here.

  1. why is everyone assuming Stanislaus is town?

i recall Pizza saying that Stanislaus was playing well for town and that’s why everyone seems to be giving him a free pass. however i seem to recall that Pizza said that he would revisit Stanislaus if he reached the endgame since Stanislaus was playing too well. i said this before, town are more likely to have spotty and inconsistent play because they lack the information scum have. furthermore both Stanislaus and USCDiver make the ‘easy’ reasoning that Weedy and i are the last scum. seriously, if i were scum going down, i would not let my LAST fellow scum save me in that manner. that would be poor play. it is strange that Stanislaus, an experienced player, would make such a statement. if he said he wasn’t sure if Weedy was the last scum or said she probably was a misguided town, i probably would have not said anything.

so we have Stanislaus and USCDiver playing all of us. before my vote, the three noobs were the only one with votes which leads to an easy scum win.Stanislaus is playing the aggressive lead scum and USCDiver is playing the low-key agreeing scum. they have the remaining three town tearing each other apart.

obviously, convincing you to vote for Stanislaus now might be too much to ask. however if you can believe that i am town or that Weedy is town, if you won’t consider Stanislaus, surely USCDiver is the likely partner of a scum gnarly or scum Weedy. so let’s lynch USCDiver.

in other words:

choie, if you think that i’m scum and Weedy isn’t, who is my partner, Stanislaus or USCDiver? if you can’t vote the former, vote the latter.

Weedy, if you think choie is scum but i’m not, who is her partner, Stanislaus or USCDiver? if you can’t vote the former, vote the latter.

damn, i hope i got all that i wanted to say in there.

additional editing because i didn’t have time.
2. why is everyone assuming Stanislaus is town?

i recall Pizza saying that Stanislaus was playing well for town and that’s why everyone seems to be giving him a free pass. however i seem to recall that Pizza said that he would revisit Stanislaus if he reached the endgame since Stanislaus was playing too well. i said this before, town are more likely to have spotty and inconsistent play because they lack the information scum have. furthermore both Stanislaus and USCDiver make the ‘easy’ reasoning that Weedy and i are the last scum. seriously, if i were scum going down, i would not let my LAST fellow scum save me in that manner. that would be poor play. it is strange that Stanislaus and USCDiver, experienced players, would make such statements. if they said they weren’t sure if Weedy was the last scum or said she probably was a misguided town, i probably would have not said anything.

You got a cite for that? Because I think that’s what he said about Inner Stickler, not Stanislaus.

Just checked and here are two of pizza’s last remarks on Stanislaus:

(However, as I believe Normal aptly said, it doesn’t necessarily help one’s case to use pizza as a barometer of who’s town and who’s scum. He’s clearly a good player, but for whatever reason he was stone cold wrong in this game. He thought Suburban Plankton, Inner Stickler, and Hirka T’Bawa were scum, and hotly defended Red Skeezix of all people. I could also use his suspicion against me as an example, but obviously you won’t know that he was wrong about that until the game’s over… or unless you’re scum, in which case I ain’t tellin’ you nothin’ you don’t already know.)

The thing is, if Stanislaus and USCDiver are both scum, that means they both tried to bus Red Skeezix two days running (Diver actually three days running), and Stanislaus voted against his Godfather two days in a row as well. That seems a bit reckless for scum, isn’t it?

I’m really not 100% sure about anyone in this game, heaven knows. I *could *buy Diver as scum; he’s my scum dark horse these days due to that Day Five conundrum. Also, as long as you’re bringing up pizza, that doughy lad certainly suspected Diver – during his last Day he kept trying to get Hirka to vote against me and Diver, and me to vote against Hirka and Diver, and probably wanted Diver to vote me and Hirka (I don’t remember if that combo ever came up).

But again, like Stanislaus, if Diver is scum, he played a reckless game by putting scum’s Godfather and their assassin in play. He voted septimus early (the Day before everyone else did), then went after Red Skeezix with a fervor akin to Javert going after Jean Valjean – he double-voted Red three Days running, more than any other person in this game. That’s not just bussing, that’s double-decker bussing with an Amtrak train on top!

So frankly if Stanislaus and USCDiver are scum together, they totally deserve the win – and a special Kamikaze award to boot.

nope, i can’t say i can cite. i just stepped back and thought about it. if i’m right, he IS stone cold. i’ll try to wade over pizza’s posts. think about my logic. would you be willing to take a gamble?

if you really want to metagame, check out the game on idlemafia.com that concluded just hours ago. i was the last scum standing. i don’t think we would have won if i made plays like making partner Weedy save me. in fact, i got my town cred from bussing my fellow scum hard and even was the deciding vote to lynch him. so would you at least consider that Weedy and i are not scum together? otherwise, neither Stanislaus and USCDiver will be lynched and town will lose. i don’t intend to give them the win on a silver platter, kamikaze or no.

oh, if i’m right and town loses, do i get a brownie at least?

I dunno, maybe I’m being over-sensitive because he then went on to declare me scum with gnarly.

I have been thinking about gnarly’s theory since he voted. I do feel like he and I are being rail-roaded. We are both easy targets because neither of us have a lot of posts, or perfect voting records. But gnarly is right that it is easy for scum to have good vote records. They know who to vote for. When they know Red is going to flip scum at some point, then they would want to be on the right side. If town bites itself, so much the better, but would they stick their neck out to make it happen?

I know I am town, and charlie is feeling town (besides which, I don’t think there is anyone left for him to be scum with). Between Diver, Stanislaus and choie I am really not sure. I suddenly have this horrible feeling that I have been fixated on choie because she is so different to me, and I find her behaviour hard to understand, but I thought I found a pattern in it before.

Stanislaus has been particularly townie in the past, but he is either misguided or malevolent here, pushing me and charlie.

Diver is indeed a dark horse, and I really don’t like that he voted me first thing, for a bad reason, and now is just brushing me off. It looks planned.

vote Diver

for starting the wagon on Mental Guy - reason given: Normal voted for him

for voting me today - reason given: It’s contradictory to discuss more than one idea in the same post.

So choie and Weedy (and gnarly) aren’t scum, leaving me and Diver by default. Except choie and Weedy might be scum after all.

Why aren’t choie and Weedy scum? Because they took different sides of a vote. And they probably didn’t co-ordinate.

At this stage in the game speculating about what scum are going to do in relation to their partners is WIFOM. Will they try to back each other up to present a united front? Will they distance themselves in case one of them goes down? There’s no particular reason to believe they won’t vote opposite each other, or start a fight.

The problem with this argument is thinking that you can nail down two people as town. If you can, of course that only leaves two others to be scum, so it’s tempting to simplify things that way. But it’s a big risk to assume you’re ID-ing town correctly twice.

The question is a good one, in some ways.

Pizza was vanilla, but he was confirmed town, which made him at least a reasonable target. Normal wasn’t though and on that basis should have survived longer than Inner.

If Normal and weren’t killed for game-status, they were killed for their posts. But this brings us back to WIFOM. Scum will sometimes kill people who are getting too close - but sometimes they’ll kill people who are dead wrong so that town assume they *were *getting too close. Or maybe scum were afraid they would get too close.

But I really don’t see what this has to do with me or Diver. In three nights, Scum killed Pizza, Normal, Inner. Fine - they bumped off the talkative, experienced players, and then took out the last confirmed town. So therefore… what exactly? I’m sure if they could have killed off more than three players in three nights they would have, but then the game would be over.

What worries about this is that it doesn’t really provide any reason for me and Diver to be scum. But it does raise the WIFOMy issue of why scum killed who they did.

I double-voted you to make the vote closer and see if that provoked a reaction. It did. choie followed me up, Weedy pushed MentalGuy. If MG had flipped scum, I would have been looking hard at choie. But he flipped town, which means that Weedy went out of her way to lynch a townie. I already suspect you of being scum, and it makes little sense for a scum Weedy to expose herself just to get one town lynched instead of another. So I think it’s more likely that Weedy panicked and voted to save her last teammate.

However, as should be clear from my vote, you are my number one suspect.

But this - this bit is superscummy:

You weren’t there, remember? That’s your claim - that you didn’t come back to vote because you weren’t online. There’s no question of you “letting” anything happen. But now you’re saying you were there and would have stopped it.

Either you didn’t know it was happening, in which case your argument about “not letting it happen” is irrelevant, or you were there, in which case you’ve lied about your voting behaviour.

Secondly, what would you have said if I’d made statements like this:

“I am pretty sure that Weedy is gnarly’s scumbuddy, but my strongest lead is gnarly. First things first!”

"The motivation I can see for that is scum defending another scum, specifically the role-blocker. (Either that or Weedy is mistaken town, but very certain about her mistake.) "

“Hmm. OK - it not being a double-vote waters down my case a little.”

I’m leaving some room for doubt on Weedy. That’s why I’m voting for you first - once you flip scum, I’ll be fully convinced of Weedy’s guilt.

gnarly’s case on me (and Diver) doesn’t hang together. It feels like a desparate attack on the person gunning for him, that was cobbled together in haste. He contradicts himself on whether he was online last night, and he misrepresents my certainty on Weedy, while saying that he wouldn’t vote me if I was less certain.

Charlie, I am not sure about Stanislaus, but I will agree on Diver and we can sort it out tomorrow.

Stanislaus, choie, one of you is town. Stanislaus, you have said you are not 100% certain if I am charlie’s partner. Do you think it could be Diver? Do you have any particular reason for ruling him out?

Choie, if you are town, then I was completely wrong about you, and have messed up the game for town, since there is probably no way you will listen to me now.

I have to go to bed, but I’ll come back at EOD.

unvote choie

vote USCDiver (lock)

(I am having major problems connecting to the Dope tonight, so I hope this goes through at least once, and not more than a few times.)

This is where your argument breaks down for me, right at the beginning. You can’t base an entire argument on someone else being scum by saying you are Town.

This is, I think, only my 11th game, so I’m no more experienced than you.

When those ‘more than one ideas’ are mutually exclusive, then yeah, it’s contradictory.

Why can’t they both be town? You seemed convinced that **gnarly **is town now, how can you be so sure?

vote gnarlycharlie

(lock)

The more I think about it, the more his vote on me and Diver looks like desperate scum spraying mud and hoping it will stick. Now I see Weedy pushing Diver ahead of gnarly and it makes me nervous. Remember, being the first to reach a given vote total means it takes 2 votes to prevent that lynch. At this stage, that’s quite a big deficit.

Weedy, I’m more suspicious of you than Diver, more suspicious of Diver than choie. Tomorrow, I’ll take my time to make the right call.

Stanislaus and USCDiver, if you get a chance, could you answer my question from yesterday? (USCDiver gets a few questions, actually. :))

Now to other quotes 'round the globe:

Actually, I’m fairly sure that Stanislaus did indeed opine after MentalGuy’s death that Weedy was either scum or a townie who had been very certain of MentalGuy’s scummitude.

Uh oh. Here you’re accidentally pushing the opposite point that you’re trying to argue. You give away your ability to be incredibly cold and staunch as a scum player. So why wouldn’t such an icy, strategic dude play a game of chicken by not double-voting and letting himself nearly get lynched by patiently waiting for someone (even a possible partner) to save his bacon?

I’m not saying what you’re claiming couldn’t possibly be true, but I do think it’s not as excuplating as you think it is.

I just don’t get why you’re so amazingly certain about Weedy and (suddenly) me, for that matter – someone you’ve been voting for for several days. This abrupt switch seems really weird to me. Why have you been waiting all game to point the finger at these two guys?

That seems fair. :slight_smile:

Double-voting Red three Days in a row and double-voting Septimus twice? As someone said, a four-person scum group can’t survive by tossing their own teammates overboard so vociferously.

This, I don’t get. Why couldn’t he be partners with, say, Stanislaus or me? Or you, for that matter, but I understand why you can’t make that supposition. The scum in this game have a lot of nerve, and it really wouldn’t surprise me if a strange pairing made up the final twosome, where each tries so hard to make the other look guilty that they seem to rule each other out.

Bingo. By George, I think she’s got it! :smiley:

That much I’ll grant you. But not because you’ve been suspicious of me; I listened to Normal and pizza – two people who were pretty hard on me too – on MentalGuy and Hirka. What worries me is that you’re exonerating gnarlycharlie out of hand for no apparent reason except “feelings.”

That’s what I’m wondering. And I’m wondering it about you vs. Weedy – how can you be so sure she’s scum? What are your reasons other than her apparent contradiction yesterday?

I hate that I’m feeling caught between two factions – Weedy/Gnarly and Stanislaus/USCDiver. Yet I don’t see a reason why we don’t have two extremely clever scum working both sides. Why couldn’t Weedy be partners with Stanislaus, for example? This lets them push gnarlycharlie and USCDiver, respectively, while looking as if they’re on opposite sides of the fence.

I’m just finding it weird that gnarlycharlie is suspecting Diver/Stanislaus out of nowhere toDay; ditto Weedy suddenly suspecting Stanislaus just because he made a statement against her. And why has Diver turned on Weedy when yesterDay he was against gnarlycharlie?

At least Stanislaus has been consistently against gnarlycharlie. That comforts me a bit; I like consistency.

Basically all y’all are confusing the heck out of me.

I think it would behoove us if everyone who’s changing their votes to someone new could please lay out your cases as to why you’ve switched. Hopefully you’ll include reasons that go beyond a single Day’s behavior.

it’s fun to read comments about everyone’s relative inexperience in mafia. The mystery mash was my 5th game of mafia, ever. When I started this game, I only had 4 played games under my belt. I’m more inexperienced than almost all of you!

And yet somehow, you guys trusted me to run a game! Bwahahaha!

Astral dearest, could you provide a vote count when you get a chance? Thank you!

Edited to add: Yeah, gotta say I’m astonished that someone with 11 games under his belt would consider himself inexperienced! Holy cow, what does it take to be considered experienced in this game?!

USCDiver (3): gnarlycharlie, Weedy, Weedy

Gnarlycharlie (3): Stanislaus, Choie, Stanislaus

Weedy (1): USCDiver

Stanislaus (1): gnarlycharlie

With these votes, USCDiver would be lynched. Day ends in 7 hours and changed. Please check for any errors.

I don’t consider myself inexperienced, but I’m by no means an expert. I was just contrasting myself to gnarly where he said “they also left me who is in maybe my 12th game. so i’d be the 4th most inexperienced”. Also I moderated the Cecilvania game after playing in, I think, 2 or 3 games and reading another.

I didn’t mean to call you out. I coulda quoted anybody, your post was just handy.

I just thought the whole conversation was amusing. :slight_smile:

Also, I may have lied to you. I still have all of my role PMs from the games I’ve played, and it turns out I’ve played 8 games total, counting mystery mash. Funny how memory works… Before checking, I would have sworn it was only 5 games.

Well, shit, I think gnarly is the other scum anyway. I’ll go ahead and self-preserve at the same time

**unvote weedy

vote gnarly

vote gnarly**

USCDiver, you don’t happen to have me on ignore, do you? :slight_smile: If not, could you answer at least one of my questions up above? Take your pick if you don’t have time to answer all three or so.

(Actually I suppose if he did have me on ignore, he wouldn’t be reading this message now.)

Edited to add: Also, I cannot believe I’m gonna be the deciding vote. Crap crap crap. On the other hand, it gives me enough power that you guys should be answering all questions I put to you, mwah-ha-ha.