I may not be skilled at sniffing Scum, but I feel like I’m getting better at sniffing out bad cases. I didn’t join the Kelly bandwagon, nor did I vote SJ except at the end for self-preservation. And there is a case developing against ShadowFacts that I just can’t agree with. I read and re-read her posts without sensing Scum insincerity. I re-read Normal’s case against her, and it seems exaggerated. (I’m not saying I detect strong Town-tells from ShadowFacts, but the accusations seem very weak, and make me suspicious about the accusers. For example, one accusation against ShadowFacts is that she expressed suspicion against ATPG without voting him. Yet Shadow already had a vote down elsewhere; discussion had encouraged voteless FOS and discouraged uncertain 2nd votes.
Right now my number one suspect is Normal Phase. She’s throwing votes and suspicions around. The final straw was her vote against TexCat, mainly for her suspicions of special ed, which TexCat admits were “gut feeling.” I know that Normal plays this way (a barrage of votes here and there) even as Town, but it raises suspicions, especially since most of her Targets seem more Town and sincere than Normal herself.
Normal and ATPG have a very similar style in this game and often vote similarly. I do not think that both are Scum, and if only one is Scum that one is Normal Phase. I think she’s riding his coattails, hoping to get credibility if he is Lynched and flips Town. I’d rather Lynch Normal, with credibility to Pizza, when Normal flips Scum.
My suspicions are not “OMGUS”: I certainly don’t think either Normal or Pizza “sucks”; instead both are people I’d be happy to be friends with in RL, both obviously very intelligent, and very good Mafia players. But both are players who could do an excellent job of fooling Town if Scum. I don’t want to focus on her case against me, which might seem a reasonable case. But she did lock in her votes on me when there were only 48 minutes left in the Day, without first inviting a role-claim.
Reading the discussion between ShadowFacts and Normal Phase it is, as with Normal and Pizza, pretty easy to be sure that at most one of them is Scum. This is a good tactical reason to Lynch Normal. When she flips Scum, ShadowFacts and probably ATPG become semi-confirmed Town. (If Normal flips Town after all, we can look harder at ShadowFacts and ATPG.)
Normals’ War of Words against ShadowFacts is enormous (dare I use the term “overkill”?) so obviously I can’t handle it point by point. Normal’s initial vote (#490) was in response to one statement by Shadow:
“The shitty part of this, of course, is that (possible investigators notwithstanding) we know nothing more right now than we did after Kelly’s reveal.”
Normal replies that scathach was probably killed by Mafia, and that Shadow pretends not to know that. Afraid too “know too much,” Shadow makes the mistake of “knowing too little.” A valid scum-tell? Maybe, but hardly worth the exaggerated emphasis Normal gives it.
[QUOTE=Normal Phase in #809 and #810]
Conclusion: [ShadowFacts is] scummy in satisfyingly deep ways. Shows multiple signs of fake towniness. Expressions of belief in someone’s innocence are hugely more convincing than his expressions of suspicion, which are, without exception disavowed or backed away from in one way or another.
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And a couple other thigns nobody but me will ever see.
Bottom line, if ShadowFacts is a townie he has to be: extremely confident about meta-game pronouncements and expressions of confidence in other players; un-confident about prouncements of sucpicion and extremely unconfident about votes, all at the same time. I don’t buy it.
First, weird is not scummy.
Second, bad criticism of another player.
Lack of conviction in his own vote.
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This whole post makes my teeth itch, though once again it’s very hard to explain.
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False townie perspective. This actually pings a little bit less than the last bit that’s in black, but it’s harder to explain.
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Another vote, another pile of scum tells. Over-explanation.
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Finally, conspicuously prodding the lurkers. Scum just adore doing this.
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Inappropriate caution.
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Challenged by ATPG to put his money where his mouth is, avoids direct engagement with the issue.
[/QUOTE]
I just do not think Shadow’s posts warrant the extreme suspicion that Normal has (or pretends to have).
Vote: Normal Phase
If I’m right, and Normal flips Scum, we’ve semi-confirmed two likely Townies: Shadow and Pizza.
As for my own Lynch, it looks like it’s going ahead smoothly.
I wish there were a way the Vig could offer us advice without blowing his cover. If he has a good Scum candidate, fine, but otherwise best for Town might be to Lynch someone else (e.g. Normal !) and let the Vig terminate me toNight. I don’t know if I’m still immume (I PM’ed the Mod asking if I’d be informed of a Kill attempt, and got “No comment.”), but the Vig knows. It would be better to NK me toNight and Lynch another candidate toDay, than to Lynch me and for Vig to abstain from NK, or fire blindly. I am content to lay down my Life for the cause. Ave, Imperator, morituri te salutant.