I haven’t been able to follow this as closely as I should, but I was alarmed to read U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen’s restatement on the long-standing U.S. policy of supporting Taiwan with defensive arms while opposing its independence. Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji warned Taiwan on
Wednesday not to vote for a pro-independence presidential candidate. Zhu asserted that China would invade before allowing Taiwan to declare itself a separate country.
How far are we willing to go to support Taiwan with defensive arms while opposing its independence?
We are playing poker with the Chinese. I don’t think we want them to know what we would or wouldn’t do to defend Taiwan. That doubt may create enough hesitation to keep them from invading.
At the same time, I think China is playing poker with Taiwan. Every time an election rolls around in Taiwan, China lets it beknown that if Taiwan asserts its independence, China may invade. They do this to try to influence the election. (Hoping that their bluster will cause the Taiwanese not to vote for any candidate in favor of independence.)
Personally, I think both the US and China are bluffing. I don’t think China will invade Taiwan. (I doubt that they have the capacity. Plus, if they did invade, they would become international pariahs, and lose much or all of the lucrative trade upon which their economy now relies.)
I also don’t think America would commit its troops to the defense of Taiwan. (But don’t tell the Chinese that.) I do think we would provide Taiwan with arms. The American policy seems to be to try to maintain the status quo, in the hope that free markets pull China toward a more democratic political system at some point down the road. Then, if China becomes democratic, a reunification with Taiwan would be possible.
Let’s just hope neither party to this bluffing contest decides to step across the line.
While I do not think China would attempt an attack any time soon, they are creating the conditions that may “force” them to do it 8 or 10 years down the line. As the phrase goes “those dictators are riding a tiger they cannot dismount”. I was recently in China and the mood of the people is very supportive of the use of force against Taiwan. (Of course, this is a result of the government-controlled media)
I tried to reason that the use of force by China would be a disaster for Taiwan, for China and for HongKong but when people are so agitated they do not think with their heads.
Most wars are started by a combination of circumstances that everybody hoped would not lead to war and this may well be another case.
Irak thought they could take Kuwait with impunity. Argentina thought it could take the Falklands with no reprisal. Generally these things are done by dictators trying to get national attention off internal problems.
IMHO the best way to prevent China from doing something as stupid as that is for all western nations to state clearly they would not tolerate it.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that should submit to Beijing but, I like to tell the Chinese that, rather than the other way around, the mainland should submit to Taiwan as Taiwan has a much better system and economy and also for historical reasons as Taiwan are the legitimate heirs to the government while the mainland are the result of an illegal revolution.
One more thing: China has not ruled over Taiwan during the last 100 years, except for a few years between the end of WWII and the communist revolution. Taiwan was ruled by Japan during the first half of the centuru and independent during the second half.
My only disagreement with your statement is that we (collectively…the “western nations”) have shown, over and over again, our willingness to take up arms and initiate military action showing what we will and won’t tolerate, but only with little countries we know we can beat up. What did we do to protect the rights of Chinese students being run over by tanks on international TV? Not a thing. What did we do to stop the slaughter and the inhumanity in the USSR during the cold war? Nothing. And what did we do when Hitler was slaughtering Jews in the '30s? Not a damned thing. Until Hawaii got bombed.
My point? It’s easy to make a big show of beating somebody up for being an ass, except when it’s one of the big kids. Then we step back and issue paper condemnations, economic sanctions, and speeches. But lift a finger to right wrongs? It’ll never happen. That’s how you know it’s just posturing. If we went to war against a “big kid” for something like that, I’d be impressed. But we never will. Too afraid to get a bloody nose, y’know.
Oh, what’s that? So now you say life sucks?
Well 99% of it’s what you make of it…
So if your life sucks, YOU suck!
I resent the implication that us Americans are doing nothing (in defense of Taiwan)!!
-I’ve already written an EXTREMELY STRONG letter to the “BOSTON GLOBE”!!
-that’ll show those Commies!
For now, I agree. But I think that that will only last until they can do more than bluff (or until things change greatly). See below.
I don’t think that the suport of force is wholly, and maybe not even largely, due to the “government-controlled media.” I think it is more largely due to the following:
The thousands of years of Imperial History that is still apparently a part of the minds of most Chinese I know and have met, whom I think are fairly representative. That is, the average Chinese person seems to take the concept of the Empire for a fact and reacts viscerally to any threat to it. Even in discussions with Taiwanese who flatly state that Taiwan should be free, I usually confuse them horribly when I ask “What about Tibet?” They freeze, a strange look in their eyes as they realize it’s the same issue, and after long silences they grudgingly admit that maybe Tibet should be allowed to be free, too. (I can count the exceptions, those who immediately and strongly stated that Tibet should be equally free, on the fingers of half a hand.) Further, even among Taiwanese-educated Chinese, it is hard to get them to admit that Tibet was NOT “always part of the Empire.”
My observation: the average Chinese citizen is strongly imperialistic, at least in first reaction. (As for the PRC government, their actions in the South China Sea, in Tibet and India and Vietnam, etc. indicate a certain lack of respect for their neighbors.)
The verdicts of history. Basically, Chinese history treats leaders who lost part of the Empire VERY BADLY, and don’t think that the current leaders don’t know it. I bet it’s in their blood. As you said, sailor, “those dictators are riding a tiger they cannot dismount” - but it’s a two thousand year old tiger with a billion eyes and voices. Hell, even just the loss of face might goad some leaders into pressing the button.
The poverty of the Chinese peasant. (This was suggested to me by one of my Shanghai friends.) Basically, war - while terrible - is also opportunity. For those with nothing and no hopes for more, a war can (traditionally) provide instant success. (Spoils, recognition, etc.) So the peasants might well support a war just for the chance that they might get something. Sounds loopy to me - but I have lots to lose, and have seen footage of WWII and nuclear weapons tests, and most Chinese probably haven’t.
The gulf is probably wider than even that indicates. While the Ching did claim Taiwan as part of the Empire, the capital was very distant and effectively not part of the people’s lives, as befits a pre-modern-communications society. And before that, Taiwan was under the Dutch (or was it the Portuguese?).
I had a middle-aged (Han Chinese) person in Kaohsiung tell me that, of the four foreign powers who had concquered and ruled Taiwan, the Europeans and the Japanese were the best, the Ching and the Nationalist Chinese were the worst. (But that didn’t mean he wanted the Communist Chinese types instead.)
What should we do? Beats the heck out of me. But considering the percentage of our “information economy” that’s linked to those two coun…er, nati…er, places…we should definitley be better informed and more thoughtful, less impulsive than we usually seem to be. And if Taiwan wants to remain unconcquered until such a time as one of those two systems changes, they need more and better weapons, or more and bigger friends, or both.
Any invasion of Taiwan will be a naval/air conflict. If the troops get ashore, it’s over.
So, if the US does get involved, it will be the US carrier fleet, plus available land based aircraft, plus Taiwanese Air force forces vs. the Chinese Fleet & Air force.
No contest. We take 'em in one round. No nuclear attacks on the US. They wouldn’t dare.
You should tell the truth, expose the lies and live in the moment."-Bill Hicks
“You should tell the lies, live the truth and expose yourself.” - Bill Clinton
Just a side note, but it seems clear now that Chen Shui Bian (sp?) will be elected the next president of Taiwan. This candidate, by the way, is the one which mainland China is so upset about. What’s really odd is that China should fully understand about the “piss off factor” (i.e. people voting for the candidate which mainland China hates), yet they still continue on with their threats. Makings of a conspiracy if you ask me… it almost seems as if they want the pro-independence candidate elected so they can start trouble…
Just FTR, Chen Shui-bian, as noted above, the candidate most worrisome to the Chicoms, has been elected (82.7% voter turnout).
We’ll see what happens. I don’t think we’ll see anything dramatic this week; more like 8, 9, 10 years down the road. The Chicoms are definitely on the case.
Uh, to clarify, I know who bombed pearl harbor. My point was that we had nothing to do with the war and we didn’t jump to the Jews’ defense on the “humanitarian” grounds we like to spout off about so much. The only time the US got into the war was when there was an attack on our home waters.
Once we were already committed to a war against Germany’s primary ally, then it became “what the hell, we might as well hit them too. er, we mean, He’s killing Jews??? It’s an outrage!!! We MUST put a stop to this!!!”
Oh, what’s that? So now you say life sucks?
Well 99% of it’s what you make of it…
So if your life sucks, YOU suck!
Here is an interesting report to Congress on China’s future military capabilities, from 1996.
China is in kind of a rough state right now, militarily speaking. At least two of their four most advanced (Kilo-class) submarines are currently out of commission. Their nuclear capability is at a low point, as their cruise missle development is not yet complete (although unexpectedly close to completion), their one ballistic missile submarine is being refitted, and their mobile ICBM units are not yet online.
A physical invasion of Taiwan would most likely involve China’s entire 5000-man marine force, but their naval transport and logistic support may not be up to the task. Any invasion would likely require the use of China’s civillian merchant fleet. That is an enormous risk, as there are many American (and Taiwanese) naval forces nearby. An invasion of Taiwan, even if it were successful, would probably require a Chinese naval sacrifice it is unlikely to want to risk (at the moment).
It is also worth noting that the U.S. Navy is no longer reporting the status or disposition of the Third Fleet and its two carrier groups. I’m willing to bet that at least one carrier group is milling about somewhere in the vicinity of Taiwan.
The only true defense the United States has against an attempt to invade Taiwan is to rattle enough MAD sabers that the PRC doesn’t ever make the attempt. Since MAD kept the Russians from doing anything really foolish for roughly 40 years, we feel pretty sure the Chinese won’t do anything foolish, either.
The trouble with MAD is that you have to act as if you really would ‘push the button’ or it doesn’t work. If the PRC ever became reasonably certain that the US was unwilling to risk nuclear conflict, the chances of an attempt at invasion would certainly increase.
And, yes, I know that there is no mutually assured destruction with the PRC (their nuclear capacity is nowhere near as great as Russia’s was, either in terms of delivery systems or numbers of warheads). However, let’s also face it; the threat of ANY significant nuclear destruction is sufficient to keep THIS country from doing anything foolish.
Recently the Chinese said further delaying peaceful reunification will likely lead to an invasion of Taiwan and followed that a week later by saying they will fire their (24) nuke ICBMs on the U.S. should we attempt to militarily intervene.
As an aside, I mentioned this subject to a friend a few days ago and he showed up at my office the next day with Invasion by Eric L. Harry. I don’t read much fiction, but this book’s subject is interesting. I’m only about a fifth of the way into it, with the Chinese landing in Mobile Bay.
