Young-Adult Voting: An Analysis of Presidential Elections, 1964-2012, put out by the Census Bureau, cuts the population in more than one way. Figure 1 uses 18-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 65+ as groupings. Figure 2 has 18-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65+. So does Figure 3. None of them show anything like the 54.5% reported in that link.
Figure 1 has 18-24 voting dip about 10 percent to 38% from 2008 to 2012. Figure 2 shows a voting rate of just 45% for 18-29 in 2012, while seniors were at 72%. Figure 3 shows the 18-29 rate in 2008 at about 50%.
Table 4 shows an almost unbelievable differential among the voting rates of 18-29 year olds among states, from 68.1% in Mississippi to just 23.6% in West Virginia.
I’d like to think that a higher percentage of young voters will turn out than in 2012. I’m not at all confident about it, and there would have to be very odd increases in the swing states to make any difference in results.
As 538 points out, what she’s opposed to is having THAT fight so soon after the ACA fight. Plus there’s the psychology of it, that if you do away with ACA, what was the point of Barack Obama? Sanders also wants to do away with Dodd-Frank too. Sanders is basically running to undo more of what Obama did than Republicans are. THe fact he wants to replace them with even more liberal policies may comfort some liberal voters, but doesn’t do much for Democrats who have given their money, time, and energy to help the current President.
Let’s say a Republican candidate came out with a plan that would cover more people and with better coverage than ACA. Would it be fair to characterize that plan as undoing ACA?
Doesn’t matter what’s in the plan if the result is more covered with better coverage. But I think your answer exposes the issue here. If the method is better than ACA in liberal minds, then it’s good that it replaces ACA. But it does still end ACA, and there are parts of ACA that people like that would be lost under single payer, such as the ability to choose their plan and get it subsidized.
So it is quite fair to say that Sanders’ plan undoes ACA. It’s not fair to do what Chelsea did and not mention that Sanders’ plan does replace ACA with something liberals will like better, but in fact it is a “repeal and replace” plan. But many non-Sanders supporters may not appreciate the replacement.
Normally I prefer Sanders to Clinton because of his honesty and REAL executive experience, but one thing I just have to mention is that no one brings more knowledge of issues to the table than Hillary Clinton. And she doesn’t sound like most candidates who cram before big debates or interviews. The Clintons really have spent their entire lives learning about politcs and governance. That’s why no matter how much I dislike her, I know that the worst a Clinton Presidency can be is mediocre. Which is why it’s important that Republicans choose a candidate who appeals to voters’ hopes, not their fears. There’s just nothing scary about a Clinton Presidency.
I give Sanders a -A, Clinton a A, O’Malley a B. The race is on to Iowa. If Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton has to win South Carolina, or else, John Kerry, Al Gore, or Elizabeth Warren will have to make a late entry into the Democratic presidential race.
Good data, thanks. If Obama got the youth vote out as a new candidate, I don’t see why Sanders wouldn’t be able to as well.
The ACA was passed in mid-2010. The earliest a plan from the new president could be realistically written and voted on would be what, mid-2018? What she’s likely opposed to is losing financial support from the industries that profit from the status quo. Did Lyndon Johnson leave civil rights for another day, since civil rights bills had already been passed in 1957 and 1960? No, he got the best bill he could hammered out and passed.
Shifting the Overton Window on health care reform.
How many of those Democrats feel like the ACA is the best the nation can do, as opposed to the best plan that could be passed at the time? I bet it’s a small, small number. And recall that the current President a) supports UHC and b) fought to get a public option into the ACA. Taking up that baton and carrying it forward would be a tribute to Obama’s legacy, not an insult to it.
I understand the theory that ACA was the best plan that could be passed at the time, but the Overton Window has not moved since then. Having a single payer fight would be a sure way for dozens of Democratic officeholders to lose their jobs in the very next midterm. They aren’t going to fall on their swords again when they got 80% of what they wanted, just for the last 20%.
My take away tonight is when it came to the Flint bad water issue, the media didn’t bring it up, Hillary did. Moreover, she did something about it. Bernie gave it lip service and a call to remove the governor. Well that’s all well and good, but how about pushing to get the lead laced drinking water out of circulation, then go and fire the governor?
Hillary is the pragmatist. Bernie is the dreamer .
The federal government can’t fire the governor. I assume Bernie was calling for the state legislature to impeach? Because if he was suggesting the federal government could, even by inference, then that’s a more radical and dangerous statement than a thousand Donald Trump statements.
Every time Sanders finished speaking: “Secretary Clinton, would you like to respond?”.
Every time Clinton finished speaking: “Senator Sanders, would you like to respond?”.
Even if they didn’t even mention the other one. I agree with Skammer’s kid. Obviously they didn’t care what O’Malley had to say about anything, so they shouldn’t have even bothered to invite him.
This is why they should have the first caucus or primary earlier, rather than later. It would give a clear justification for getting the also-rans off the stage.
OK, new plan: Everyone in the country is required to pay $10,000 a year to the health insurance company of their choice, enforced by the IRS. If they have a medical issue, then they can get up to $9,000 a year from the insurance company. There, that’s coverage for everyone, it covers all procedures, and it doesn’t even have a deductible. Should we all support this plan?
If a Republican comes up with a better plan than the ACA, then yes, of course we should switch to it, just like we switched to the Republican-developed ACA in the first place. But it has to actually be better, not just hit a few highlights and suck otherwise. And none of the current Republicans has even gone so far as to suggest a bad plan: Mostly they’re just waving blank pieces of paper.
The main difference between 2008 and today is that there was a large increase in voter registration between 2006-2008. We haven’t seen such an increase. Maybe “This Time It’s Different” but I still don’t think Sanders is going to get that army of young people , first time voters, and disenfranchised voters to turn out. Most of the polls show that Hillary’s support is highest among those who identify as Democrats and those are the people most likely to stomp through the snow in -20 wind chills in Iowa and New Hampshire to vote. http://www.civilrights.org/archives/2009/07/487-eac-report.html
Don’t you see that those stats don’t back that very strongly and refute your linked article’s claim of a 2008 watershed? And as your article and Exapno Mapcase’s link show, the big increase in youth voting was 2004, so if anything Kerry brought out the youth vote as a new candidate.