Oh let’s call the whole thing off!
FWIW there is a hint of data out now: the difference in the HarrisX polling results from 7/29 - 31 and 7/30 - 8/1 (most easily appreciated in the 538 poll tracker).
The difference of moving the 3 day result window into one that included a day after the second debate was … (drumroll) … Biden staying stable with Sanders losing 1%, Warren gaining 1%, and Harris not moving. Next rung Buttigieg dropped 1 and Booker gained 1%. Note this is one day of post debate polling out of three move of the needle. So yeah so far my prediction that
is not so off. Harris didn’t drop (so far) but otherwise on the money. (Go me!) Let’s see what more polling brings!
Warren or Bernie needs to take the other out, or Biden wins. I don’t know how much time they have but I wouldn’t wait much longer.
Careful, DSeid. Don’t move into bug eating territory. 
What’s surprising about De Blasio’s “tax the hell” line is that he is the mayor of a city where so many very rich people live.
That isn’t who voted for him, and won’t the next time, either. There are many *more *New Yorkers who sympathize with The Rent Is Too Damn High Party but will vote Democratic.
But usually even liberal NYC mayors don’t so blatantly dare all those billionaires who provide a huge chunk of their tax base to “Go Galt” (which here simply involves moving five miles west to Hoboken or Jersey City).
I love Hoboken and Jersey City (tasty ethnic food at low prices!), but if you think New York billionaires would ever move there, I have a couple of bridges to sell you.
Also, NYC taxes are based on where you work, not where you live. Unless Wall Street relocates to Hoboken, I think the City will be fine.
And, that demographic is capable of understanding and dismissing campaign rhetoric vs. actual policy efforts.
Jersey City already has a substantial financial district within almost a literal stone’s throw of Wall Street. I once lived in that neighborhood. It’s so close that it wouldn’t really be that disruptive to move if they felt like it had a huge financial benefit— Plus of course the longer-term benefit of being a brush back pitch to future NYC mayors. NFL teams move around the country so their billionaire owners can get better stadium deals, so I don’t know why you can’t imagine billionaires moving their Wall Street or Midtown offices 5 miles west.
Because there’s incredible prestige to being in Manhattan. And, in my understanding of that crowd, incredible prestige in not being in New Jersey.
And yet. The “New York” Giants and “New York” Jets both play in New Jersey. Brooklyn not long ago had the basically identical reputation to “Joisey”, and now it is literally the hippest spot on the globe because people found it cheaper to live there. If De Blasio thinks he has all the leeway in the world, I think he may be mistaken.
That still doesn’t mean anything. No and no.
George Will is quoted at that link as having written:
I would be very interested to know exactly how Will knows that Sanders did not mind such a reprehensible thing. I suspect Will doesn’t have any evidence of the kind, and is talking out of his ass. I’m not saying I know this to be so, but if he does, it would have been nice of him to include it in his column. Does anyone know of such evidence?
Anyway, I’m curious as to why you linked to this.
I just want to say that DeBlaso radiates waves of being a gigantic tool, and I don’t know what in the hell he thinks he’s doing in this race.
In case anyone is interested, here’s the actual video of Bernie back in the USSR. It starts 1:18 in, and you’ll see Bernie in the foreground on the right side.
Yeah that’s one of the things about Bernie that has the worst optics. Actually it’s the single biggest thing with the worst optics. I agree with others that the Republicans would go apeshit hammering home the fact that he spent his honeymoon in a Communist dictatorship that was very well known to be an oppressive regime. He went there in 1988. Apparently he “visited the Soviet Union as part of an official delegation in his capacity as mayor”. Was this a common thing back then for mayors to do? Even if wasn’t, the honeymoon aspect of it makes it look like he was a Soviet sympathizer. Can he possibly campaign hard enough to blue-collar America to make up for the spin machine that’s going to be running attack ads showing him as a Soviet sympathizer?
Not much movement. CarnalK, you mentioned “bumps and troughs” after the first set of debates; do you have a citation for that?
It still seems to me that only a fraction of voters are paying attention–and that this is reflected in the type of things the candidates are saying, aware as they are that they’re talking to a minority (a minority known for having certain political preferences).
The ratings give us some useful information: for the second (CNN) debates, according to Forbes* and other sources, fewer than 9 million people watched the 7/30 event and about 10.7 million watched the 7/31 event.
Recall that there are over 150 million Americans registered to vote (and about 245 million who are eligible to vote).** These numbers would appear to provide more support for my position than for the position that “a wide group of people must be paying attention.”
** US voter turnout recently soared but lags behind many peer countries | Pew Research Center