DeSantis can't win the GOP nomination or the general election in 2024 {How Trump plays into this is allowed}

Said another way, just because you don’t notice cockroaches in your kitchen doesn’t mean the walls aren’t full of them to emerge at night.

Provide a public environment where they don’t feel the need to hide their loathsome side and suddenly it/they will be everywhere. They also multiply in the light. Doubly so when heavily fertilized by a massive propaganda blitz.

Crazification factor:

Crazification, yeah. Maybe “born crazy and/or crazified,” since it’s beginning to look as though a lot of this is genetic and universal across the planet (i.e., transcending “race” and culture, though one big role of culture would seem to be to keep this shit in check).

I grew up in the 1970s, and like everyone else I had to learn about the Nazis and what they did, and the standard explanation was that 1930s/40s Germany was an aberration. Sure, there were bad people in any society, but that was some really bad, crazy, abnormal shit.

Well, now we know that it wasn’t. The deplorables are no different from the ones who enthusiastically shouted “Sieg heil!”, did the dirty work of the Gestapo, or turned on the killing gas. Of course, not all deplorables are equally bad, just as all Germans weren’t either. One “talent” that Hitler and the Nazis had was finding the right type of bad person to do the bad things. Fortunately, Trump is, unlike Hitler, not a good planner and not a good selector of evil men (he finds evil ones, but they are not particularly good at what they do).

Post Mortem

The billionaires backing DeSantis bet wrong and even bet stupidly. If they don’t have political consultants, they should. If they do have political consultants, they should fire them.

The case for DeSantis had superficial plausibility: he would be a more competent Trump without the baggage. He had Florida, once the largest swing state, in his pocket. He could attract MAGA (still does) and deliver for the plutocrats (as Trump did, but again with more competence).

That’s a great elevator pitch, with 180 degree blind spots. Let’s go through them, starting with arguments they would find least persuasive.

1a. Democracy is under threat, and democracy is great for capitalism. Autocracy and partial freedom is great for cronyism, which crimps growth. There are plenty of middle income countries in that sort of trap. True, Trump has more expansive ambitions for consolidating power than DeSantis does, but Trump doesn’t have the competence. It’s very conceivable that DeSantis could damage democracy more than Trump could, damage it in qualitatively important ways.

1b. Or not. Maybe the plutocrats believe they could manage a decline to Latin American style political turmoil and social sclerosis. Think Mexico or Paraguay or Bolivia or Peru. Or Fiji or Honduras or Jordan or Armenia. Don’t know much about those countries? Get better advisors.

2a. Florida pols - Republican ones - spoke of DeSantis’ problems with making eye contact. DeSantis had a track record in Congress and while he checked all the business friendly Republican boxes (and then some) he wasn’t known for his affability. Most politicians have social skills way above average - they are often back slappers - and most politicians struggle to operate at a Presidential level. DeSantis had a steep hill to climb under the best of circumstances.

2b. These aren’t the best of circumstances: a nerd can’t beat an insult comic. Trump eviscerated DeSantis. The Governor didn’t stand a chance…

  1. …especially when running a campaign saying he was just like Trump. You don’t win a matchup against somebody who you brag about resembling. Because if your hero is so great, why not just vote for the original?

4a. In contrast, Trump struggles when he opposes a woman, like all male insult comics do. If Comey hadn’t handed Trump a last minute gift, Hillary would have won in 2016. And Hillary was not formidable on the stump.

4b. The billionaires should have backed Haley or Kristi Noem. More generally, they should have gamed out their strategy, rather than settling for the elevator pitch. If that’s what they did. The corrupt Republican Supreme Court majority tells us that money is speech, but most donors don’t like to give interviews. So who knows what these important public decision makers were thinking?

Thanks, MfM, for your PM! I basically agree with what you wrote.

I guess one question would be how much DS was actually supported by the billionnaires of which you write, and how much by small donors?

Also… I was right! And I called it early as well. (I also said that Haley can’t win in another thread I started… and I still don’t think she will based on electoral votes alone.)

What do I have to add to your PM? Well, building on one of your points, I would say that presidential-level charisma is difficult. Contrariwise, a candidate can, as Trump has proven, build a candidacy on charisma and nothing else (perhaps he should be credited with excellent demagoguery as well).

Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana was once touted a possible presidential candidate. I met him in person at a conference in 2006 in Indianapolis. He was rather short and very quiet- and meek-seeming. He is genuinely a smart, responsible person, however, and I split my ticket in 2008 to vote for him (Obama for president, of course. I will never vote for another Republican again, however, until the GOP is fully purged of MAGA or is replaced with something else). Could a person like Mitch be president since our entry into the modern media era with televised presidential debates, etc., in 1960? I have my doubts.

The point being that the charisma required of a governor is way, way below that of a president. The moment DS entered the spotlight, he failed. He is genuinely a nasty person that hurts others, so I won’t apologize for saying that he comes across as a 100% awkward, dumb fucking cock. And there is probably no bigger fail than to try to play the BSD while totally lacking the stuff to do so. He’s just plain ludicrous, and all the MAGAs could smell the flop sweat.

In my OP I said, “DeSantis has no discernible charisma–or personality, for that matter.” I think this was the #1 flaw, ultimately.

Some did back Haley, that’s why she’s still in the race.

A lot of people didn’t think he needed it; that Trump proved that all you had to do was say the right things and hate the right people and any personal qualities become irrelevant.

Seems like DeSantis was one of them.

Is that so, however? It seems that Trump has always been recognized as charismatic a la Hitler, etc.

Further, Trump’s decrepit personal qualities appeal(ed) to his rabid base. To them, his bullying, swagger, cheating, and so on are things to be celebrated, since to support him is to rebuke the political establishment and civil norms in general.

If you’re going to pass notes you should share them with the class. :slightly_smiling_face:

I’m assuming it was pretty much what #763 had.

This may have been #2.

Personally, I think it’s the Dunning-Kruger effect: You’re super smart and extraordinarily competent, and have an excessive amount of money that proves it. So of course picking a winning presidential campaign is something you’ll have natural talent at. Nothing could possibly go wrong.

Hahaha. Yup, his Dukakis meets tank moment.

That’s hilarious. No public figure with any self-awareness, much less a politician, would be seen in public like this.

At the very least they would know how to laugh at themselves, laugh off the incident effectively. DeSantis has no game.

(Postmortem, not Private Message.)

With a sprinkle of Peter Principle. You keep succeeding until you hit something outside of your skill set. Then you fail.

The weird thing is that some of these megadonors fail time and time again.

Well, a million here or there, what’s the harm? If you lose you can go buy a submersible yacht.

I can remember when a million dollars was a lot of money.

LOL! True.

At first I thought he was wearing knee breeches to symbolise his respect for the Founders at Philidelphia.

Nope, white rubber boots.

Interesting style choice. Demonstrates that he’s never got his feet dirty.

Remarkably like the 4wd he-man machomobile trucks around here with no Arizona pinstriping (brush scratches).