Post Mortem
The billionaires backing DeSantis bet wrong and even bet stupidly. If they don’t have political consultants, they should. If they do have political consultants, they should fire them.
The case for DeSantis had superficial plausibility: he would be a more competent Trump without the baggage. He had Florida, once the largest swing state, in his pocket. He could attract MAGA (still does) and deliver for the plutocrats (as Trump did, but again with more competence).
That’s a great elevator pitch, with 180 degree blind spots. Let’s go through them, starting with arguments they would find least persuasive.
1a. Democracy is under threat, and democracy is great for capitalism. Autocracy and partial freedom is great for cronyism, which crimps growth. There are plenty of middle income countries in that sort of trap. True, Trump has more expansive ambitions for consolidating power than DeSantis does, but Trump doesn’t have the competence. It’s very conceivable that DeSantis could damage democracy more than Trump could, damage it in qualitatively important ways.
1b. Or not. Maybe the plutocrats believe they could manage a decline to Latin American style political turmoil and social sclerosis. Think Mexico or Paraguay or Bolivia or Peru. Or Fiji or Honduras or Jordan or Armenia. Don’t know much about those countries? Get better advisors.
2a. Florida pols - Republican ones - spoke of DeSantis’ problems with making eye contact. DeSantis had a track record in Congress and while he checked all the business friendly Republican boxes (and then some) he wasn’t known for his affability. Most politicians have social skills way above average - they are often back slappers - and most politicians struggle to operate at a Presidential level. DeSantis had a steep hill to climb under the best of circumstances.
2b. These aren’t the best of circumstances: a nerd can’t beat an insult comic. Trump eviscerated DeSantis. The Governor didn’t stand a chance…
- …especially when running a campaign saying he was just like Trump. You don’t win a matchup against somebody who you brag about resembling. Because if your hero is so great, why not just vote for the original?
4a. In contrast, Trump struggles when he opposes a woman, like all male insult comics do. If Comey hadn’t handed Trump a last minute gift, Hillary would have won in 2016. And Hillary was not formidable on the stump.
4b. The billionaires should have backed Haley or Kristi Noem. More generally, they should have gamed out their strategy, rather than settling for the elevator pitch. If that’s what they did. The corrupt Republican Supreme Court majority tells us that money is speech, but most donors don’t like to give interviews. So who knows what these important public decision makers were thinking?