Dr Deth, , true, but Kerry’s campaign plans to deal with it are inadequate at best. Far better than Bush’s (how do these guys get away with calling Dems tax and spend liberals, anyway? I’ve never been able to figure that out), but I don’t think he really appreciates the seriousness of it all. Either that, or he does and he’s hiding it until after the election. He’ll have to do way more than increase taxes on the plus 200k set to fix it.
Skipping the Cafe Society Interludium
Thank you for the replies. It is for me interesting to read. There are things brought up that I also heard from friends in the USA.
I don’t have much to add (you all know how I feel about certain issues) but there are a few remarks I can reply on.
In my view and experience you are more correct then you could be wrong with this reasoning.
The reactions I hear are certainly pointing in that direction.
Well I don’t think so. However I think it would be a bit more uncomfortable if you would travel in " US friendly" nations with a Muslim majority and especially in the ME. Yet even then I don’t see common people all of a sudden launching verbal (or other) attacks only because you come from the USA. Not more then you could risk that now and that is as far as I experience a rather tiny risk. (I’m not a regular in certain more “dubious” locations and places, but I suspect the normal foreign visitor does not show up there either… 
)
I don’t know about that. If you mean “inside” the USA… I don’t think there is an immediate danger for this (I can be mistaken however. I don’t live with these people). If you mean that US interests outside the USA will be targeted… They are already in the focus and in my opinion already targetted enough right now. Yet nothing says that what is planned, plotted, dreamed shall also become reality.
A re-election of Bush however is once again a dreamed recruting tool for those who really want such actions to be carried out, there is no single doubt about this.
In general answering some issues brought up by several posters:
I don’t think the USA shall ever be so stupid to actually attack North Korea, but if there is an administration that proves to have all the potential to reacht that level of stupidity, then it certainly is the current one.
The same counts for Iran (and I don’t go further into that because of my blood pressure).
Yet the question is:
How on earth do you think Bush & Criminals Company could to be able to sell yet an other agression on a sovereign state to the World Community?
I don’t even speak about the US population. Those who didn’t vote for Bush are the ones who once again will be accused of all you can think off if they organize demonstrations against such actions.
Those who do vote for him must have no problem with the prospect of such a doom scenario. The only other option is that they are simply braindead (for me the most plausible reason why anyhone could vote for Bush right now).
Iraq is an other matter.
Actually: Right now I don’t see how Kerry can undo what Bush has destroyed. An other Bush however can only add to the ongoing disaster.
Maybe he can send Criminal Bremer back to try once again to push through the Ultimate Colonisation Laws. Heil Corporate Greed, yet only if the profit goes to Corporate USA. (OK… This is an other discussion. )
As for US domestci issues and situations:
I think you must prepare yourself for Orwell Coming True More and More, very smoothly and hence unnoticed by the vast majority.
Aklso: Don’t forget that even the USA eventually can go bankrupt.
With the current government you have certainly a bunch of arrogant idiots who think the US is still a Climbing Star and can’t ever even begin to decline. That is in addition to all their otther blindfolded arrogance one of the most dangerous views and ideas to be supported and believed.
I never studied one hour longer on the subject “economics” then I was forced to, but I don’t think I am wrong to say that the US dollar floats largely on the good will (read: trust and support) of the rest of the world.
In my view one of the - largely ignored because largely unknown- reasons behind the Iraq invasion was the inclination of Hussein (and for a part he effectively did it) to replace the US dollar with the Euro in his (oil) transactions.
There were also some background-talks inside the OPEC where the word Euro was dropped here and there.
If Bush gets an other term and especially if the disaster in the US deficit doesn’t come to a halt, I wouldn’t be surprised by a development for (probably very silent but maybe even not) support to lobbying in favour of currencies outside the dollar.
On a longer term that can of course always become a factor, and one that can hurt the US economy really bad.
Salaam. A
If Bush continues on as he is going on a purely economic front, changing the US from the world’s biggest creditor to the world’s biggest debtor, the dollar will plummet in value, quality of life will deteriorate, and future generations will lead lives of squalor while hopelessly trying to pay off an unimaginable debt.
Meanwhile, the ones who orchestrated the fall of America will take their money and run.
Basically, Bush is planning on making America into one giant Enron. And just like with Enron, people are going to be too stupid to see it coming.
True, but I don’t see the Disaster of Biblical proportions that will happen if Bush continues to loot the Treausry for his rich buddies for 4 more years.
Never heard that before. Cite?
Some posters here have argued a continuation of Bush’s policies could cause the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar to collapse. That would be a disaster of Biblical proportions. So would war with Iran, Syria or NK.
I’m a deficit hawk, but this gloom-and-doom is a little over the top. Compared to other countries, the U.S. deficit and debt as a percentage of GDP isn’t all that bad.
I don’t see how that’s mathematically possible. I’m no Bush fan and I’m fervently hoping he loses, but unless he has a platform to start printing up $15,000 bills by the bushel, how could the U.S. dollar collapse?
The economy’s not going to CONTRACT, and there’s no reason to think hyperinflation is on the way. Maybe I misunderstand what you mean by “collapse,” but I could see a drop in the dollar but not a collapse. And a drop in the value of the dollar has its advantages.
Why? I’d like to see a cite of this too…smells like BS to me. I seriously doubt the US would invade Iraq…to keep them buying US dollars over the Euro. Are you trying to say the US is preventing the Euro from becoming the standard currency over the Dollar?? Again…why?
Sticking with my one word theme…how? Could you go into some detail about these other posters thoughts on HOW the Dollar would collapse?? What policies of Bush’s would bring about a collapse of the Dollar?
-XT
See pantom’s post #16 above, and subsequent responses.
I only read post #16…I’m strapped for time tonight. If I missed something important, my appologies.
He’s not saying the Dollar would ‘collapse’ BG…he’s saying it would no longer be the standard currency in the world. Those are two different things. For the Dollar to ‘collapse’ the entire US economy would have to go completely tits up…and it would probably take down the rest of the world too boot. For the US Dollar to not be the standard currency anymore, another currency needs only be seen as more stable. Its more than possible that the Euro may someday be that currency…but it won’t be because of Bush’s policies. It also won’t necessarily be a bad thing…certainly not for the US. Hell, then WE can play games with devaluation of the Dollar vs the new standard. 
-XT
Oh man, apparently you haven’t been reading www.prudentbear.com. And if you don’t like that site, then there’s the book Japan’s Policy Trap. It says the same thing.
Basically, Japan and China are buying huge percentages of US debt (Treasury bonds). They hold onto this debt even though it really isn’t a very good investment. Now when they do so, they pay in dollars, which of course go right back into the US Treasury. So they are taking huge amounts of dollars out of the money supply, and owing to the relationship to supply and demand, this helps prop up the dollar. This holds holds down the yen and rinminbi and and assures that Japanese and Chinese exports flow nicely to the US. The upshot of this relationship is that Japan and China are currently financing the massive levels of consumption in the US, which is accompanied by a very low savings rate and monumental consumer debt (which is now, according to a Bear article, 80% of GDP :eek: ).
Japan’s deficit is a huge percentage of its own GDP. The country can barely pay for its retirees’ pensions and everyone’s medical benefits. If push comes to shove, Japan could start selling off its US bonds or, alternatively, just quit buying so damn much. Either way, the effect on the economies of both the US and Japan would be enormous. The dollar would crash, and yen would go through the frickin’ roof. Keep in mind that, even within the past decade we have seen exchange rates go as low as 80 yen to the dollar. If we had a true crash, I could imagine 30 yen to the dollar. Bring it on! I say. I get paid in yen while living in the US 
).
But before I get giddy over that prospect, let’s consider what would happen to both economies. Japan would be fuct. It’s economy is already as rickety as hell and depends quite a bit on its export power. Without the ability to export, thousands of companies would be instantly bankrupt. This would send shockwaves throughout the economy that would not be offset by the positive factor of being able to import raw materials cheaply.
The United States would also be in trouble. With the dollar truly in the toilet, virutually nothing could be imported. This would appear a great boon to American businesses, and it would help the economy in some ways, but the day of cheap imports would be over. And don’t even mention oil, which Japan and China would be able to buy super cheap because of their expensive currency!
But the real problem is what would happen to world economy. When the balance gets off and no one, for a variety of reasons, can buy anything, you get a depression. It could start happening any day without warning.
If Japan were to flood the world with dollars, not only would the exchange rate go to hell but inflation would also happen, too. American exports a lot of stuff. It is an agricultural titan. When people started buying all that maize and wheat for cheap, the producers would raise prices. And that goes for every potentially exportable product. You would have massive inflation with nothing but inflation itself to put upward pressure on wages. It could be brutal.
Do I think this catastrophe will happen? No. I think Japan and China can’t keep up their export-supporting fiscal policy forever, though. Something’s gotta give. It will possibly happen in slow increments.
They might want to, but do you really think they’d dare to? Souter’s attack this spring goes to show that some people don’t care who you are and what power you hold - you’re still a potential target. Even if it was just random, they’re bound to feel a little less untouchable now. Call me a fatalist, but it doesn’t seem too far fetched to me that a ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade would be followed by some sort of act of domestic terrorism. Although, I suppose they could get some NRA members to volunteer to act as an armed guard…
Bush smuggly claims “No draft!” Should we read his lips? Just you watch! The Republicans in Congress have flat-out said this “War” is every American’s duty… Sure, so let’s start by sending the Republican kids first. I hear Haliburton is changing their logo to a red cross w/ blood for oil as their slogan!
Bush thinks he has to answer to no one. He won’t be happy until all Americans are left behind. Experts are already equating his name with Hoover. Good old Hoover and all the Hoovervilles his lack of economic policy created!
I know you middle-of-the-roaders think this is extreme hype. How do you sleep at night with Bush at the wheel? Remember the Popular Vote 2000! It’s time to relandscape the Bushes at the White House and Kerry them out of here!
- Jinx, mad as hell and I don’t care who knows it
P.S. Many thanks to the Repubic party that gave us men like “Tricky Dicky”
I didn’t say it was “the” reason. I perceive this as one of the underlying concerns adding to all the other reasons they had (and still have).
Regarding the preference given by the Hussein regime at the Euro instead of the US dollar for a certain amount of transactions : I said there is most probably not much published about this in mainstream media publications (and I do not regard mainstream media as reliable sources, as you know).
I had my first info on this from what you pick up when you interact with people informed/involved. (Now don’t ask me where in my memory this resides).
When it comes to having read about it, which I most certainly also have: Le Monde Diplomatique is what comes in my mind as a possibility but even when that is correct, I have no memory in which year or month it could have been. Probably just before the invasion of Iraq. I was not that interested in this issue for having this information stored in my database for later reference.
Why do you make such a stretch that I say this?
In my opinion every -even remotely possible future- threat to the US dollar is automatically a concern for the US.
Salaam. A
It’s the anti-abortion dudes who are the violent ones, note.
Because I didn’t understand what you were trying to say, perhaps? Thats why I used the question mark…to ASK you if thats what you meant.
I’d need more information on this Alde…makes no sense to me even as an outside possibility. If you can dig up more info on it, by all means lets take a look.
-XT
Information on what exactly? Hussein’s slowly developping discovery of tender love for the Euro?
I said what I have as background on this. I can’t post my braincells.(I know… That would give a serious intellectual injection to the SDMB but I still need them now an then).
Ask yourself the question: If one oil exporter switches from $ to the Euro even when that is only in the stage of representing a few drops on a hot plate, in addition there are a few rumours, even if not more then about ideas surfacing yet nevertheless indicating a certain curiosity about such an experiment in some circles inside the OPEC… Do you think this would not get any attention at all in US circles?
Despite the clumsiness of the US intelligence services an all sorts of levels and issues, when it comes to protection of the position of the dollar I do not have the feeling that there ever was much room for clumsiness.
Salaam. A
If only this were posted in the Pit…
No.
The notion that Saddam’s switch to oil pricing in Euros was a factor in the invasion is certainly not a new one. It’s part of an economic casus belli that has been around from before the invasion and continues to circulate today.
Here’s a recent take on it, originally published in The Guardian:
**
More at source.