Here is an interesting link…
http://home.att.net/~dericker/Errors/
I don’t buy the communist link…but the allowing Pearl to be bombed to get us into the war sounds feasible. Is an American president really capable of such things?
Perhaps he thought the end justifies the means? I find it very scary that this would even be thought of…let alone carried out. Makes Bubbas indescrestions pale by comparison.
Check out the book, Day of Deceit : The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor, by Robert Stinnett.
From what I know of the subject, FDR almost certainly courted hostility from the Japanese in order to sway American public opinion in the direction of war.
However, that he knew the specifics of the Pearl Harbor attack in advance and allowed it to occur unchecked and without proper warning to local officials is an unproven speculation. To my knowledge there is no hard evidence to back it up.
Do you really think he would leave any hard evidence behind? Coverups are not a new thing. I don’t believe he knew the actual attack plans…but he knew they were going to hit somewhere. Why was not the entire Pacific put on alert? Why wasn’t the whole fleet put to sea? Better question…why were only the carriers put to sea?
sorry…just had to add my 100th!
Why were the carriers all out out to sea? The most likely answer is, “because that’s the sort of thing that carriers do.” To suggest that FDR and the American Naval command would sacrifice their battleship fleet in order to cover up their saving of the carriers (and thus their knowledge of the attack) is to assume that they would give the carrier its due respect. Up until Pearl Harbor, battleships were still considered more valuable (for the most part) than carriers, and this held true among politicians and the military as well. If we were gonna go out of our way to save somehitng, it would have been our best battlesghips. Besides, it wasn’t JUST the carriers that were out to sea. We had cruisers and the like on patrols or training missions, etc. No one suggests were trying to protect them. Sometimes ships leave port, and the odds of our three carriers being at sea at any one time are pretty good. We may not have been surprised by the attack in general, but the where and when of it shocked the hell out of us.
Try this.
I have recently become intrested in the subject, and plan to read both of the referenced books.
All of the BB’s in Pearl were of WW1 or a bit later vintage. The keels had already been laid for the new gerneration of battleships. FDR knew of the value of the carriers, he was very aware of the importance of air power as was both Japan and Germany. From the time it was shown by Doolittle IIRC that airplanes could sink battleships their days as the center of a battle fleet were numbered.
FDR wanted desperately for us to enter the war. I think he just looked the other way and hoped what happened would not be to bad.
Heck, Asmodeus, YOU most likely do stuff that makes Bubba’s indescretions pale by comparison. So would I, if I got really lucky! But to FDR:…
I was much interested in this question some time back and did a lot of reading. Jury’s out, but very probably no, he didn’t.
There had been speculation about Pearl Harbor as a target for years(I mean, after all, THERE it is) but no one really believed the Japanese could pull it off, much less believed they were crazy enough to try it. Wrong on both counts.
Most military types expected something in the Indochina or Phillipines arena, most likely an attack on Dutch or British possessions, where the oil rubber etc that the Japanese most needed was abundant.
While clearly Roosevelt fervently desired a reason for America’s direct involvement, the American public wasn’t in the mood to buy anything less than a Pearl Harbor attack as a pretext for war. I imagine he probably expected the Nazis to start some shit. He was just as surprised that Sunday morning as anybody else.
Secondly,a matter of risk. Roosevelt believed (and so stated to Churchill) that sooner or later the Axis would do something to bring America in the war. If he got caught in such a conspiracy, he not only would not get elected again but he would be skinned alive and the hide displayed at Yankee Stadium! He would never have taken such a risk, calculating as he did that it was gonna happen sooner or later, most likely sooner. He was just so fixated on Europe that he didn’t correctly guage the capabilities and intentions of the Japanese, but then, niether did anybody else.
I think about Lord Actions quote, about never underestimating the importance of stupidity in History.
Of course FDR might have known about the attack. Hell, he might have piloted a plane and strafed the battleships himself. There’s just no good evidence for it (even if he had reason to do it, that doesn’t mean he did it.) I’m just saying that the most likely possiblility, by far, is that FDR was very surprised on 12/7, and very pissed off about losing the better part of his battleship fleet for several months. No matter how well his motive is proven, that’s all that CAN be proven.
Oh, and as I recall, the high-brass military-types were less than impressed by that previous demonstration of air power.
This stuff has been around since the start of WW2. Right wingers started to spread this rumor the day after the attack. FDR hoped for a confrontation with Germany, Europe not Asia was the war he wanted the U.S. involved in. FDR would use American destroyers to escort British ships hoping Germany would attack them and force our hand. When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor Hitler declared war on the U.S. it was the biggest mistake he made.
My best guess was that FDR expected some sort of Jap sneak attack, but expected it in the Phillipines. Pearl Harbor was a complete surprize to him. And he only had a general idea of when. The thing I want to know is: Why was “dugout Doug” (as my Father used to call him, and he served in HQ. NoPac) surprized when the Japs attacked HIM, SIX hours later?
If I recall from my readings, the Japanese delegates were surprised that the attack had taken place on Dec 7. They knew the location. There is no proof that FDR knew what exactly was up.
There’s a big fat book called “The Code Breakers” that is a history of cryptography. It covers, in great detail, Allied espionage in WWII, including pretty much everything you need to know about American espionage against Japan. I think there is an entire chapter devoted to intelligence on the pending attack on Pearl Harbour. I recommend this book highly to history buffs and math/decoding buffs also.
elucidator wrote:
I agree. What you folks are talking about is treason. That’s the type of thing which will not only get you impeached, but can get you executed. It’s ridiculous to suggest that FDR would have had any part in such a scheme.
Do you really think he would have sacrificed his Pacific fleet??? Even if you buy into the idea that he welcomed an attack as an excuse to get into the war, a much less devastating attack would have been sufficient to provoke the American public.
This is just another right-wing rumor started to discredit Roosevelt. It has been around forever, without anything other than speculation to support it.
[off topic]
I’d say attacking Russia was his biggest mistake. It took us 4 years to beat down 1/3 of Germany’s army. The other 2/3 were fighting Stalin. We probably would have fought to a draw had Germany not attacked Russia.
[/off topic]
There is a lot of evidence to suggest that someone should have known something was up unless they were completely blind. Still, as badly as FDR wanted in a war, I doubt he would have let Pearl Harbor come off as well (for the Japanese) as it did. The Japanese were almost as surprised as the U.S. at how well things went. Had they thought they’d do as good as they did they could/should have taken possession of Hawaii outright. U.S. would have had a MUCH tougher go at Japan had that happened (Japan could have launched attacks on the U.S. mainland from Hawaii).
Just out of curiosity–Did Japan really underestimate the U.S. will and expect the country to roll over and forgive the attack on Pearl Harbor? I remember being told that Japan hoped the American public would yell at FDR for provoking Japan into the attack and force FDR/Congress to lay off the embargos. Is that how it was?
Even further off topic: it was an even worse ratio than that. Before D-Day, the western allies were fighting about 9 - 15 Axis divisions, the Russians were fighting (and repelling) 150 - 180. I doubt very much that we could have fought Germany to a draw, barring use of the atomic bomb. As for its being a mistake to attack Russia: perhaps it was a military blunder, but the invasion of Russia was the whole point of the war for Hitler. From his point of view, he would have to deal with Russia either sooner or later, and sooner offered more German advantages. And, of course, the whole thing almost worked. Had the invasion not been postponed a month for the invasion of Yugoslavia (which was militarily irrelevant compared to the wasted time for the Russian campaign), the Germans may have won the war before the onset of winter. A close call, to be sure.
Asmodeus wrote:
Only two carriers, the Enterprise and the Lexington, were based at Pearl Harbor at the time. At the time of the attack, the Enterprise was delivering fighters to Wake and the Lexington was delivering fighters to Midway.
But there is one small flaw to the ‘carriers were saved from Pearl Harbor’ conspiracy theory. The Enterprise was due back in Pearl Harbor from Wake about an hour before the attack started but the Enterprise was delayed by a storm.
Both the Lexington and the Enterprise were lightly escorted and would have been very vulnerable to Japanese attack if they had loitered in the area for any length of time.
The Pearl Harbor conspiracy theories are complete and utter crap and rely on a deliberate misreading or igorance of history.
‘US was isolationist in 1941 and opposed war’ - Pure bunkum. By 1941 FDR had done the following: enacted the Vinson-Trammel Naval Expansion Act (the ‘Two Ocean Navy’ expanded by 69 ships including 2 aircraft carriers, fortification of Midway, Wake and Guam), reinstated the draft, passed the Lend-Lease Act, taken over convoying of ships halfway to Britain, exchanged antiquated destroyers for bases in British possessions, occupied Iceland with US Marines. Public opinion may opposed war, but it certainly didn’t translate into serious legislative opposition.
‘The US knew that a Japanese attack was pending’ - The US did detect signs of impending Japanese attack. Given that the Japanese were to attack Hong Kong, Singapore, Malayasia, Java and the Philippines all more less at the same time, it is not surprising that the US intelligence notice that something was afoot. However, US attention was focused on an attack in the South Pacific.
‘The US knew of Pearl Harbor attack plans by reading reading Japanese codes’ - Again, pure bunkum. Japanese attack plans were never broadcast by radio and thus could not have been intercepted and decoded. Nor has a message that might lead to a reasonable inference that an attack on Pearl Harbor was being planned.
Andrew Warinner
Jeff_42 wrote:
That’s not quite how it was. Japan hoped to grab the strategic resources of the South Pacific, primarily oil, establish a deep defensive perimeter and wear out the US and eventually conclude a negotiated peace. To speak of a coordinated Japanese strategy is not accurate, however. The Japanese military was divided between the Army, who looked to complete its conquest of China and was uninterested in anything else, and the Navy, who foresaw war with the US and coveted the Pacific resources to fight it.
Was it reasonable for the Japanese to expect such a strategy to succeed? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean that nations are aware of their own weakness don’t initiate wars. Niall Ferguson argues persuavisely that Germany acted to spark WWI because it leaders felt that it would eventually be overwhelmed by the alliance between Russia and France and that a war gave them some chance of changing the balance of power before it became too tilted against them. The embargoes on oil, steel and other materials started the clock ticking to war in Japanese minds. Either Japan must acquiesce to US demands to end the occupation of China or see its oil reserves run out in about ten months time, thus immobilizing its navy.
Andrew Warinner
Andrew Warinner said:
I’ll try to find my references tonight (why do I always end up needing my references while I’m here at work?), but the message saying (not in so many words) “We’re going to war with the US and attacking Pearl Harbor” was transmitted by telegram to the Japanese embassy in Washington. As the Japanese diplomatic code had been broken by that point, the US interpreters knew some sort of attack was up and that war was imminitent, but didn’t know where the attack would be. In addition, the telegram was sent so late that even had it been known that it would be an attack on Pearl Harbor, it’s unlikely that the navy could have been mobilized in time to get the hell out of there. Heck, the Japanese diplomats didn’t even get to deliver their message of war until after the attack (it was supposed to be delivered an hour before the attack, IIRC) and only barely got their papers burned by the time the FBI showed up to kick them out and seize their papers.
But I’m only disagreeing with what you state as facts; not with the conclusion you draw. I don’t believe that FDR knew a thing about the attack; I don’t believe that had he known about the attack, he would have been willing to sacrifice the battleships in order to keep his carriers. Most importantly, I belive that had that occured, someone in the military would have stood up and definitively supported the story (“I decoded the message three days before the attack, and I know Roosevelt knew!”) because such an act would have been unconsciable. Why not evacuate the entire base and save everyone and everything? Why not try and mount a defense?
I’ve also heard the same story told of Churchill- that British intelligence knew that Pearl Harbor was going to be attacked, but that Churchill refused to inform the Americans because he wanted America dragged into the war. But as before, the story lack any credible sources, and it lacks basic common sense- an attack on Pearl Harbor would have started a war, regardless of whether the U.S. was ready for it or not.
Jeff_42 said:
I think it was less a matter of “Here’s what we expect to happen” than of “Here’s hoping.” The United States’ military philosophy was obviously one of “we’ll spend a few years delaying the enemy while we massively re-arm, and then we’ll turn around and knock them down.” The U.S. was already beginning to re-arm and get ready for war, and so the longer it took for Japan and the US to get into a fight, the better it was for the US (all delaying would be diplomatic delay without any real fighting). Conversely, Japan’s lack of material resources meant that the longer Japan pushed off war, or the longer that war would take, the less chance Japan would have of winning. Ergo, once Japan realized that war with the US was inevitable and that the US had begun re-arming, it was to Japan’s advantage to start the war as quickly as possible. If the US decided to roll over and play dead, well, great; but that wasn’t the objective.
Let’s play what if.
You’re an American president. You know a country is planning an attack on one of your major overseas installations. Do you
A) Send an intercept force out to meet their ships and possibly engage them in a battle?
B) Do nothing, and sacrifice a large part of your capability to make war, knowing that will swing public opinion solidly against the enemy?
C) Tell your field commanders to arm themselves to the teeth and go on 24-hour alert so that when the attack comes you can blow the enemy out and still get to play public opinion against them for trying a sneak attack?
Frankly (pardon the pun) don’t you think option C would have been the best course for the U.S. PROVIDED ANYONE ACTUALLY KNEW THERE WAS AN ATTACK COMING?
Geez, don’t conspiracy buffs ever think these things out?