Is it too early to make comparisons. Is one type of marriage more stable than the other. Any recent stats?
2013 past thread and from within it and articles linked in it these stats:
“In the seven years since gay couples were able to have civil partnerships, 3.2 per cent of male unions ended in dissolution, compared to 6.1 per cent of female couples.” In comparison in the same countries 13.8% of straight couples divorce within 7 years.
But it is too early because as of now there are many confounders. You’d need to have it broken out to have populations matched by demographics including SES and age. And how long the couples had been together living as if married before formalizing it because it was suddenly an option.
It’s too early, and, it’s harder to measure than you might think.
People get married every day, gay or straight. They also get divorced every day, gay or straight. The people who get divorced are not the same people who get married (obviously). You are therefore measuring the divorce rate of people who got married years ago, or whatever the average time was that the marriage lasted.
This is not unique to SSM vs. heterosexual marriage - it is inherent in the question.
Not to threadshit or anything, I hope.
I don’t think a comparison of heterosexual couples after a full 7 years to homosexual couples after some unspecified period ranging from 0-7 years depending on when in the last 7 years they registered their civil partnership is going to be meaningful. Not to mention the other factors you mention.
Yes, basically the now-married ssm population would be comparable to not only heterosexual couples that got married, but also the population of heterosexual marriages that existed 7 years ago.
So you have a large skew of very long term stable gay relationships that only could get married in the last few years, as well as the equivalent of the hetero couples who recently met and married and later find incompatibility.
I guess the question in every marriage, gay or straight - what is the likelihood of divorce if the couple has been together (effectively married) for say, 10 or 20 or 30 years, versus say 2 years or 5 years?
Another point to ponder - a lot of hetero couples, once the thrill of sex has worn off or the kids are past needing constant care may find they have less in common than they thought. Is that likely to be less of a problem for gay couples?
Another big difference that I see is that there is a lot of social pressure for straight people to get married and pop out kids. But there isn’t remotely the same level of pressure for same sex couples to get married, especially since a lot of the ‘get married’ pressure comes from circles that are not in favor of SSM in the first place. There’s a lot of straight people who feel like they need to get married within a year or two of finishing school (college or high school) or their life isn’t on track that isn’t there in the same way for same sex couples. Also to come out as gay you have to reject social norms a bit, though nothing like it was a few decades ago, which I think helps create a mind frame of being critical of things that ‘everybody does’ and so adds to resistance to that social pressure.