I have a suspicion, because gay marriage is relatively new, that it is lower than the heterosexual divorce rate. But I have no idea - hence the GQ question.
No political motivation here - just curiosity.
I thought about this too awhile back and didn’t find much from Googling around. One of the things that seems to complicate statistics is many state have not got around to changing wording. For example in Massachusetts gay divorce was till recently still reading husband and wife. So separate statistics weren’t being tracked. The article notes that about six months after Massachusetts legalized gay marriage, the divorces started to be filed for
It hasn’t been around long enough in the US to have good data.
There is some indication that gay marriages break up more than heterosexual ones.
Cite.
On the other hand, another study showed the opposite was true in Denmark (cite). The researcher believes this to be the case due to different demographics of gay marriage in Denmark, as well as something that seems counter-intuitive (at least to me) - gay male marriages break up less than lesbian ones. It may also have to do with marriage rates in Denmark being lower than for the US and other countries (cite).
Regards,
Shodan
I wonder if, in the long run, studies will find an inflated divorce rate during the first few years after gay marriage is legalized in different areas. I can imagine - though I have no facts to back it up - that some couples may get married in celebration of obtaining the right to or for political reasons without necessarily being ready to actually marry each other. Kind of like everyone rushes out to get a new piece of technology, even if it doesn’t suit them (I realize that’s a poor analogy that trivializes marriage, but I’m struggling to describe what I mean adequately).
I would think, in time, divorce rates would average out to similar numbers as among heterosexual couples, with things like socioeconomic status, age and religion/culture being larger indicators of divorce, the way it is for straight couples.
I assume that would be Local Sixty-…ah, nevermind.
mmm
I have two WAG reasons to see the statistics move in either direction:
Less divorce because a huge portion of those gaining access to marriage have been in long-term relationships already. At the time I got married, my partner and I had been together for 10 years already. There are plenty of others who had been together longer – some much longer.
More divorce because some couples get swept up in the moment. Legalization is kind of a big deal, I can see some couples getting married due to the moment who might not have if gay marriage had been a standard thing all their lives. There is also opportunity reasons – for example, California where the marriage window actually closed, and people saw that possibility coming. While MA marriages are pretty much a done deal now and aren’t going away. In the first year there were questions as to whether or not the state would move to amend the constitution. This puts undue pressure on some couples to get married right away.
This would be my suspicion, and I think it’s even more likely in places where legal recognition of same sex marriage appears to be tentative (San Francisco under Newsome, California generally prior to Prop 8, etc.)
I was wondering the same thing.
“Hurrah, we’ve won the battle. We are legally allowed to get married. Let’s celebrate with a wedding.”
A few other thoughts that could swing it more one way or the other.
Towards less divorce for homosexual marriages
- Less likely to get married merely due to pregnancy
- Less likely to get married merely due to traditional family/religious pressure
- Less likely to get married on a whim if there were strong obstacles to overcome to get license
Towards more divorce for homosexual marriages
- Less likely to stay together “For the sake of the Children”
- less likely to stay together due to traditional family\religious pressures
On the flip side of that is my gay uncle. He and his partner have lived together for going on thirty years now. As far as they are concerned, they already are married. I don’t think they would bother to get “married” even if it was legal in Georgia.
My OP was asking for numbers, but on second thought I suspect that any numbers might be so premature as to be meaningless. I can’t think of a good way to factor in both the couples that are getting married out of a celebration of new rights and those that don’t get “married” because they have already achieved a comfortable life together.
Actually I expected the opposite - that gay marriages would be less likely to break up early than heterosexual ones. One of the cites I read said that he also expected it to be less, because the gays who got married would be those who had already been together long-term and would therefore be less likely to split up than those who knew each other less well.
It makes sense to me, but I expected lesbian marriages to be even more stable than heterosexual ones, and that does not seem to be the case, so what do I know.
Regards,
Shodan
It’s a bit counter-intuitive, but after a little thought it makes perfect sense to me: there’s more an expectation that gay male relationships overall will break up, and there’s generally less inclination to marry when you think a relationship is likely not to last, so the gay men who actually go to the trouble of marrying are primarily going to be the ones who are really serious about being in it for the long haul.
As for lesbians, you’ve heard the joke about bringing a Uhaul on the second date, right? Yes, it’s a stereotype, but most of the gay women I’ve known have claimed there’s more than a kernel of truth in it. And if there’s that kind of overestimating how serious a relationship is, it stands to reason such couples would be more apt to jump the gun on getting married and wind up divorced.
Wasn’t there some study a while back that showed that living together before marriage actually increased the level of divorce? And, if so, was it just religious propaganda?
From memory - I’m not in a position where I can look up cites right now - there have been a number of such studies, and I think the observation is pretty well accepted. And the phenomenon has been observed for quite a while.
One possible explanation used to be that those willing to cohabit without marriage (so flouting some social conventions) were also more open to divorcing (flouting other social conventions). But as the social disapprobation attached to cohabiting before marriage gets less and less, this explanation holds less and less water.
The social disapprobation towards divorce tends to decrease at the same time, IMO. So I would expect it to be more or less a wash.
Regards,
Shodan