A great deal is always made by the media each election cycle of the “swing voter” - although it is sometimes debated whether such voters even truly exist or not - voters that are independent, or undecided, and whose vote could decide the election outcome.
I’m curious to hear from any swing voters here - perhaps loosely defined as people who genuinely have not made up their mind yet whether they’re going to vote (D), vote Trump, or go third party - or perhaps, defined as people who genuinely do not go into an election cycle with D or R already pre-planned in their minds.
Is there still anyone here on this message board who is thinking, “In this upcoming election, I could go with a Democrat, or go with Trump, but it’s such a tough 50/50 choice?”
I’d say I fit the profile. I’ve been registered as an independent since I was old enough to vote, and (to the consternation of friends and family) I’ve voted for candidates from either party based solely on their positions and issues.
In Chicago I voted Republican more often than I thought I would because democratic candidates there often struck me as self-important and self-righteous, as well as not being as progressive as I liked.
Since moving to Kentucky, I don’t think I’ve found a single Republican candidate’s views palatable. Indeed, in the last few years I’ve been amazed at how comfortable the GOP and its pundits (Tomi Lahren springs to mind) have become with being blatantly ulikeable.
That said, there are a couple of races this year with no swing in them for me, like Trump and McConnell.
I was a full on swing voter 20 years ago and would look at individual candidates positions before deciding who to vote for, and it could reasonably be either party, though I tended to lean Democrat for president and mixed for congress. While I wasn’t all that likely to vote for McCain in 2008 (especially with Palin as VP), it wasn’t completely out of the question. With what the Republicans have been doing since 2008 (complete obstruction rather than trying to functionally govern, voter suppression, attacks on minorities, climate denial) and especially since 2016 (complete brown nosing of Trump, complete rejection of the good parts of traditional conservatism) there is absolutely no way I would vote for a Republican for national office. With the Republicans in my state explicitly rejecting the concept of representative democracy, there is no way I could vote for one at state level, or anyone at a local level who chooses to be associated with them. It’s possible that I dislike a Democratic candidate enough to vote 3rd party instead of Democrat, but even that has gotten pretty unlikely.
I honestly don’t see how someone can be a swing voter on Trump (in the sense of 'maybe Trump, maybe the Democratic candidate), I don’t see what belief set one could have where they’re like ‘maybe he’s a good choice, maybe he’s not’.
Voters aren’t meant to vote for policy and doing so mangles the system. There will also never be the day where, thanks to you voting party line, your team wins and America becomes a Liberal/Conservative state. You’re far better off to accept that you’re not going to win and never will win and just do what the Founders wanted which is to elect people who are fair and not corrupt. If that means you elect someone with politics you detest, again, they’re only going to be half of the government. Half of them are going to be persons with politics you detest whether you vote for your party or the other party.
I’m a swing voter, I guess. My ballets are typically split between Democrats and Republicans down ballot but I’ve always voted 3rd party for president. I’m not opposed to either side but I generally don’t like who makes it through the primaries. The most excited I’ve ever been about a candidate was McCain in 1999. I went to one of his rallies in 2007 and was disappointed with the lack of content and then he picked Caribou Barbie and I couldn’t vote for him due to lack of judgement.
This year I’m going to vote not Trump no matter what so I’m not a swing voter in this election but I’d guess there is a pretty good chance I vote for a Republican for senate so I’ll still have a split ballot.
But typically the 3rd party candidates are total loons (in my opinion and not just talking 2016) I can understand not being thrilled with either of the major candidates but one of them is going to be president. Kinda reminds me of some early jobs: do I want to work Christmas or New Years. I gotta pick one, none of the above isn’t an option.
You do not have to pick one. There is not, I don’t believe, a requirement to check a box in every race listed on the voting form.
Think of it this way, if you feel like you have to vote for a candidate in every race, then if both parties put up slimeballs, they can safely trust that one of their slimeballs is elected. They have no disincentive from doing so.
If, on the other hand, they see low numbers when they do so then - even if they might still win a particular election - it will still be clear to them that all the other side has to do to win that district is to put forward someone who is not a slimeball. That win is not going to buy them much and it will come back to bite them sooner rather than later.
By abstaining from the vote, you send a clear signal to the parties about how to handily wallop the other team. Ultimately, the parties want to win, and they will jump on any numbers or strategy that they need to get to 50%.
You get to decide what the parties use as their carrot to entice you to their side. If you tell them that you’ll back them, so long as they stay 1 millimeter away from being a joke party, then that’s all they are going to hold themselves to. And that’s what you will get in your city, state, and national government. If you hold them to a higher standard, they will have to conform to that standard or they will lose power to the side who bides by your stick.
That’s what I thought. If you care enough about politics to post about it in this forum, you’re probably rarely on the fence at the national level. Maybe there’s some people in MA who may go back and forth for the gubernatorial candidates for example, but not at the national level.
Plus I think the education level and engagement level of the typical Doper is well above the mean.
No, I don’t think we have many swing voters. More like 75-80% yellow dog Democrats. And see Oakminster 's thread about if there is a Democrat he could vote for. The True Believers have trouble understanding people who aren’t convinced already.
IME the Republicans will vote automatically for whoever has an R after his or her name. The SDMB is mostly people who think carefully first before they vote automatically for whoever has a D after his or her name.
Being able to say that the US Revolution happened in 1776 is not a meaningful metric of a person’s knowledge of nor understanding of politics and the Constitution. Memorizing trivia, to be “politically knowledgeable” is the same as learning the basic rules of Football so you can watch it with your friends and not sound like a complete dumb-ass. If you take that sort of thing as a metric for whether to invite someone to play on your Football team, you will lose compared to the guy who chooses a strategy like only recruiting people who just left the armed services or asking his candidates to run 100 meters and try catching a ball.
I’m comfortable in saying that partisans and non-partisans alike consider “electability”, even when they’re not the ultimate white-cat-stroking arbiter of the matter. If you doubt that, I wouldn’t be surprised to find a couple threads along that line just one page up from this one.
Arguing that a voting strategy won’t work because people /vote/ isn’t much of an argument.
I worked for (D) Jerry Brown in 1992 but have otherwise remained a rad-lib P&F/Green since the 70s. I’m not a (D) though I’ve been more likely to vote there than for any ®. I don’t know any folks undecided across the bipartisan divide, only those unsure of which dogmatist they prefer. A “swing” voter may not know whom to hate more, Tramp or Bloomberg. A swing (D) voter now might be undecided among current poll leaders and thus is the short-term target. But I doubt many undecideds will remain in a few months.
I agree. Regardless of what their political opinions are, the people that post in the political threads here think about political issues.
I feel most swing voters are people that don’t really care about politics and don’t follow political campaigns until they’re in the final few weeks (or days).
And I should expand this to note that there is a white-cat stroking party principle in every state.* While there are primaries in various locations, there is a person who recruits candidates, pushes them towards or away from particular races, provides contacts, helps to get them funding, helps to get them endorsements, etc.
There are cases where a candidate nominally runs as a party candidate but, in essence, gets zero support from the party. Her run will be drastically hampered compared to a candidate who is accepted into the fold and backed by the party’s white cats.
One can also, for purposes of discussing the more convoluted view of the matter, view the candidates themselves as “the man stroking a white cat”. If everyone tells you that the people won’t elect a person who has been accused of corruption, then you’re less likely to bother trying to run. If everyone tells you, “Well, Joe Ganim and Donald Trump both got elected just fine. I don’t see why you shouldn’t try a run.” Then you’re more likely to run.
I agree. Many of them are those who know they ‘should’ care but don’t. Kind of like how far more people say their religious but don’t ever go to a church or house of worship.
Especially at the national level, there are real differences between the candidates and it’s hard to be on the fence. It’s like comparing a Colorado ski vacation with a Miami Beach vacation. It’s fine to prefer one or the other, but I can’t see most people seriously agonising between the two.