So the day of reckoning has arrived, Trump is CinC and has the Nuclear Football. And we have evidence that he’s an insecure bully who can’t separate personal vindictiveness from the greater good (see gold star family, and his deranged rant about Alichia Machado).
So where will it kick off ? Predicting the outcome correctly means you get a reserved spot in the bunker of your choice*
I think there will be no major wars of any sort during the Trump presidency (merely continuing existing conflicts, such as the campaign against ISIS, doesn’t count)
No but actions have consequences. If Trump makes clear that the baltics are on their own, that is contributing to the start of a war. Since I made the poll, I set the rules on what counts as starting a war.
Continuuing the war against ISIS and other groups in Iraq and Syria goes without saying, so that doesn’t count.
I realised I missed an obvious one “Trump starts a war with Mexico to force them to pay for the wall” If possible mods please adjust and also add an “other” option.
I think he’ll find that fighting ISIS is hard and nuanced so he’ll probably continue what we’re doing now and declare victory. In about year 2 or 3 of his term, he’ll find some small country of brown people like Guatemala to kill a bunch of them and declare victory in time for his re-election.
I think Putin will start grabbing territory very quickly. More of the Ukraine, in the Caucuses. With an eye on Moldavia/Transnistria, the Baltic states, etc.
A less Putin-friendly PotUS might prevent these wars and maintain the status quo. But we are likely going to face either the return of the USSR or WWIII.
Yeah, Trump’s America First rhetoric fits in to Putin’s foreign policy; Russia’s goal of retaking territory lost by the breakup of the USSR relies on states defining their interests narrowly and not by broad, philosophical interests. A world where a weakened EU and NATO says “not my problem” about Moldova and Ukraine is in Putin’s interest, add to that the increased tensions between China and the US taking pressure off Russia’s eastern flank and you have the makings of an interesting new era in world affairs.
Definitely needs to be done. We could start by agreeing on how many wars Obama started. My take: 2. One in Libya and one in Syria.
I’m thinking sustained fighting (ground or air) of at least 2 weeks. Some might disagree, but I’m going with the idea that Bill Clinton’s 4 day bombing campaign against Iraq was not a war.
Trump is considerably less likely to “start a war” than Clinton would have been.
If the poll was reworked as “Do you think Trump will engage in destabilizing mischief in his first year?” with suitable options, it’d make a lot more sense.