A 2% levy wont push it underground.
A 2% levy won’t pay for the wall either.
From your cite, page 11:
So the Treasury says it’s illegal “in some U.S. jurisdictions” (but apparently not all) and “enforcement … is difficult.” How does this answer DrCube’s question about "Which law makes it illegal to call your buddy in another state and say “pay this dude $50, and I’ll owe you”? I’m interested in how that law reads, and how enforcement works. "?
Well, if you are a money transmitter and send funds outside the USA, you must be registered. If you are not registered, then you are illegal. What is a “money transmitter”? is the question. Certainly if you operate as a business, charge for it, and include funds from other than family members, etc, then you are required. Sending $50? Meh.
It also may be illegal, state by state, to “transmit funds”. Each state has it’s own definitions. In some states, like CA, the definition of "money transmitter; is so broad that DrCube’s buddy *could *be in violation.
Now, if you find a $20 on the street, in theory that’s taxable income, and you have to put it on your tax return. But no one cares. But if you found $200000, then the IRS would care.
Same as sending $50 of funds thru your buddy, like that. No one cares. Advertise as a business, charge for it, and start sending hundreds of thousands, millions- then they care.
Even if they care, they have to DO something to stop it, and that requires manpower. Oh, wait, there’s a federal hiring freeze. Even if there wasn’t, the notion that any Republican administration is going to hire a bunch of new investigators at the IRS is laughable.
You seem to think that a law or a regulation that says -X- is illegal means that -X- doesn’t happen, or suddenly ceases to happen. That is incorrect; a measure prohibiting something like money transfer is only as good as its enforcement. If there are suddenly a bunch of people each transmitting a few thousand or perhaps a few tens of thousands of dollars south, is there going to be sufficient enforcement to do something about even a sizable fraction of those involved? I have no reason to think so.
Remember, if there were sufficient enforcement of existing laws and regulations, there would not be millions of illegal aliens lining up to send money back to Mexico in the first place.
Trump is threatening to withhold funding to cities/states that declare themselves sanctuaries (Portland is one, as is Boston). I see no problem with withholding funding for his fucking government, if that’s the case.
Sigh.
I am another person who have always thought the wall and especially having Mexico pay for it was crude political theater and the whole thing would go away if Trump won.
As has happened every time I concluded something about Trump-I am wrong.
Well, it is crude political theater, I got that right.
But he is going to build his wall and “Mexico”, through a tax on remittances, will pay for it. We will complain and describe obstacles to the idea, but we will be ignored and the wall will get built, paid for by Mexicans in the US.
The wall won’t be impenetrable, it won’t be continuous, the construction will take a long time, and the remittances won’t pay for the entire thing. But it will get built. And he will be bragging about it in 4 years.
Two things haven’t been mentioned so far in this thread.
Congressional leaders have already agreed to fund the beginning of the construction by transferring already appropriated funds. (Trump promises Mexico will pay that back). So he will get his money immediately to start construction in the next few months.
Congress has already passed a law that gives the federal government the right to override all environmental, state and local laws to build the wall. The feds have already used eminent domain dozens of times to get land for the parts of the wall that have already been built. That law was passed to enable Bush’es wall. It is still in effect. So there are no legal challenges available to anyone to stop the wall.
Like several people have said, Never Never Never underestimate Trump. He always finds a way to win. I am very frightened by this man.
You are missing the point. Trump isn’t interested in stopping the remittances, they are going to pay for the wall. He will tax the remittances, as has already been noted this is being done by at least one state, and like any sales tax, will rely on the wire service companies to collect the tax and forward it to the Government. It won’t take any extra people or detailed investigations. Do you want to send to Mexico? Great, there is a 5% sales tax on that, taken off the top. Where do you want to send the ?
you guys are all missing the point!
Look at the horror stories about money laundering. Taking $10,000 cash out of the country is a crime unless you declare it at the border. People who have suspiciously tried to avoid the $10,000 cash deposit limit have ended up with their bank accounts seized - confiscate now, let you prove legitimacy on your own time.
So a “friend” takes your money, and transfers it to Mexico. the feds investigate, freeze his assets, including house and bank account; if he doesn’t explain where he got it, he loses everything. If he confesses, he pays a fine and loses almost everything. Of course, the transfer was supposed to go to Mr. Hernandez in Mexico. Who are his relatives in the same area as the friend? their bank accounts seized too; homes raided, money in the cookie jar or mattress taken, etc.
Businesses that do money transfers - would be required by law to report suspicious transactions, or be raided by the feds and their assets frozen.
Never underestimate the power of being the 500-lb gorilla. The feds do what they want, and the harder you object, the longer the list of charges that you better plead guilty to or get 20 years minimum in front of an unsympathetic jury.
The OP asked “what could Trumptard do?”. The declaration that illegally earned money is proceeds of crime is a simple legal argument the president could obtain and start enforcing immediately - tomorrow. If you want more interesting options, they could probably get the tame Republicans to pass any law they want.
But… declare proceeds of working illegally in the USA as proceeds of a crime. Then it is already subject to seizure under existing law. They could start tomorrow. they don’t need to wait for laws.
Then what? Ask every bank to compile a list of any money transfers sent to Mexico in the last 3 years. Help your folks? You’re already on a list. It doesn’t have to be money being transferred. If you are here illegally, it would be any money you have, any assets bought with that money, etc. The feds just have to work their way through the list, freeze accounts until the proper documentation is forthcoming, etc. Find where you work, show up on payday and twist arms so the next payday goes to the feds.
What is your objective - one big payday and send them all home? (Or make life so poor they prefer to leave) Or let them stay and work and siphon off a chunk of that pay?
1984 is a bit late this year…
How easy would it be to avoid the remittance tax by using digital currencies like Bitcoin, Monero?
How many illegal immigrants make it into through the US-Mexico border each year?
Seriously?
do you expect illegal immigrants working minimum wage jobs throughout the US to suddenly start transferring $20 billion/year through bitcoin? Nothing about that makes sense.
As for numbers, one point that has been made is that the net flow of Mexican nationals is close to zero. So the Mexican Government doesn’t have a lot to lose in increasing controls at the border. There are a lot of illegal immigrants coming across, but many of them are central americans. Guess what, Mexico can afford to crack down on them, they aren’t Mexicans. I don’t know the numbers, but the power politics of this are a lot more complex than I had imagined.
The US Government has made it easy for illegals to transfer $ to Mexico because the US economy likes cheap labor. Unfortunately for them the US voters don’t share that like. It is going to be a bad time for Mexico and for Mexicans.
Trump is already negotiating with the Mexican Government. I don’t think he will insist that they publicly fund the wall, they won’t go that far, but there are a lot of things the Mexican Government can be made to do in the way of trade deals and stopping job transfers to Mexico that wouldn’t necessarily be in the general media in order to keep 90% of the $ transfers going. I don’t envy them.
Nobody stood to make ten billion dollars prosecuting Hillary Clinton. That ten billion dollar wall however will probably cost thirty billion dollars by the time the project gets cancelled: a third into Trump’s pocket, a third to his cronies, and a third to the actual construction.
Trump and the Republican Congress will pay for it by raising taxes on the people who were dumb enough to vote for them. And then they’ll look those people in the eye and tell them they lowered their taxes. Because why stop lying to people who have proven they’re dumb enough to believe all the lies you’ve told them in the past?
The real solution to the illegal immigrant problem - an the only intelligent thing I ever heard trump say - was that he wanted to fix the e-Verify system. Make it simple for employers to verify a prospective employee’s Social Security credentials. No job without an e-Verify acceptance. Employers who bypass this - get fined or jailed. (Yeah, right - what are the odds that rich Republican businessmen will face jail or even significant fines?) Once there’s no money to be had people will leave.
So what has a better ring to it #DonaldsFolly or #TrumpsFolly ?
I imagine that if Trump tried to put a levy on remittances to Mexico, Mexico would counterbalance that with a remittance on funds leaving Mexico for the U.S. The dollar amount might not be as great, but it would be on companies and the rate could be higher.
Has there been any hint about the design? Acquiring the land where necessary? Surveying? Ordering materials? Hiring workers? Construction machinery?
Anything at all beyond an order to start?
How long will it be before construction can even start?
I expect he’ll demand that Mexico hand over the money, completely convinced that they won’t dare defy him. When they do in fact defy him, he’ll throw a temper tantrum and order a military attack on Mexico; both to punish them for daring to stand up to him, and to extort the money out of them. He’ll probably figure that they’ll cave in once he has the military destroy Mexico City.
The point is the remittances WON’T pay for the wall. They can’t–the math just doesn’t work.
Assume for the moment that the costs of the wall don’t go up, the amount of remittances don’t go down, none of the remittances are driven underground, and the levy is 5%, all of which is available for the wall. $24 billion in remittances per year * 5% = $1.2 billion. That means that it will take at least twenty years of levies to pay for the wall, by which time the wall will already have needed repairs and replacements and maintenance, which aren’t free.
Now realize that most of those assumptions don’t hold water. The costs of government projects almost always go up, usually by quite a lot. (See Boston’s Big Dig for an extreme example, but plenty of highway projects, etc., go way over budget, and military cost estimates are rightfully notorious.)
Meanwhile, remittances aren’t a stable number–they wax and wane in line with overall economic conditions, the number of immigrants here, etc. If Trump succeeds in deporting most illegal aliens, for example, who’s going to be left to send money home?
Further, the amount gained from the levy isn’t entirely available for other purposes, because collecting the levy has costs. Whoever upthread said, “will rely on the wire service companies to collect the tax and forward it to the Government. It won’t take any extra people or detailed investigations”–um, I presume you do know that it takes people working for the government to process these tax receipts, and these people expect to be paid. It’s not just one or two wire service companies–there are nearly 30,000 money service businesses registered with FinCen. Those are just the ones who are registered–God Himself probably couldn’t tell how many informal and unregistered agencies are out there.
And how many of the people who tried to avoid the limit have ended up with their accounts seized, versus how many have successfully laundered the money?
Various sources estimate that Mexican and other Latin American drug cartels successfully launder somewhere north of $15 billion a year out of the U.S.; that’s with all of the regulations and agents and operations and systems in place now. This sourcesuggests that the U.S. interdicts and seizes perhaps two-tenths of one percent of the money laundered in this country each year.
You assume that somebody is available to read the reports and do the raids. Are you sure and certain that there are plenty of federal agents and investigators just sitting around twiddling their thumbs waiting for a bunch of new reports to come in?
I’m pretty sure there’s not. Most people who launder small amounts, like most people who cheat a bit on their taxes, get away with it because there aren’t enough investigators and enough resources to find them all, much less to successfully seize and/or prosecute.
How many investigators do you think it would take to go through the list of money transfers sent to Mexico in the last three years (250-300 million separate transactions, remember), and review documentation to determine their legitimacy?
A high percentage of illegal workers routinely pass eVerify (in a 2009 study, for example, the system authorized 54% of the workers it was supposed to reject). That’s because eVerify is reasonably good at determining whether Juan Rodriguez is authorized to work, but not so good at determining whether the person you’re hiring is really that same Juan Rodriguez, and it’s really awful at figuring out whether the businessman doing the checking has any interest in knowing the truth or is perfectly willing to accept an ID that doesn’t even vaguely resemble the person in front of them.
On another note, I haven’t seen mentioned that among the companies most likely to benefit from the wall’s construction are Cemex (consider for a moment what the ‘mex’ part of their name might mean–oh, yeah, CEmentos MEXicanos) and Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua. (cite) If we take the money from Mexican immigrants in the U.S. and give it to Mexican businessmen in Nuevo Leon and Chihuahua, how is “Mexico” in its entirety being compelled to give up anything?