In this thread I would like to sidestep the political/social aspects of a border wall with Mexico and instead examine the issue as to whether a President Trump can even coerce Mexico into paying in the first place.
The main obstacle that such a plan would encounter would be, needless to say, intense Mexican opposition. It’s hard to see how a Mexican president could go along with such a demand and still keep his presidency; at the least, it would result in a huge tumble in approval rating.
On the other hand, the United States could indeed exert considerable leverage over Mexico if it chose to, albeit a high cost to itself as well. The United States could suspend the issuing of all and any visas, cut off all exports/imports to Mexico, ban US citizens from visiting Mexico, etc. Both the USA and Mexico would suffer, but Mexico would arguably suffer more. If the Mexican suffering from the embargo (whatever you call it) surpassed the suffering from paying for the wall, then maybe a Mexican government would indeed cave in after all.
But the longer this embargo went on, the more pride would be involved for both sides and the less willing both sides would be to cave in even as the economic cost to both sides went up. At which point does either or both side break?
Meet each immigrant at the border, give them a handgun and a box of ammo and send them back to Mexico …
… Mexico will have a wall up and fully patrolled in months if not weeks.
Well, coercion is really a matter of choices where one choice is so awful you essentially only have one choice (which of course is not a “choice” anymore). An offer you can’t refuse sort of thing.
So the question becomes is there anything the US can do to compel Mexico to pay for the wall?
I would submit the pressure the US would have to apply to Mexico to get it to do that would border on threatening to annihilate them. Basically extortion on a national scale. I cannot imagine anything less than a credible threat of we will nuke them managing to get them to pay for a wall…and maybe not even then.
You say coerced, not convinced, so it sounds like you’re asking if we can threaten them to get them to pay for a wall and/or build a wall. Nope, won’t happen.
They could be convinced very easily. For instance let them build the wall north of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California and they’ll have it up in a few weeks. Give them more than enough money for some other stated purpose and they’ll gladly throw in a wall. There’s a price for everything, but this is the kind of thing where the price greatly exceeds the value of the purchase.
Almost none of the economic leverage the US has over Mexico could actually be used to any extent without violating numerous multi-lateral treaties. Ignoring those would not only damage relations with Mexico, but also with most every significant US trading partner.
I don’t know how tongue in cheek this was, but you know there’s no shortage of guns just south of many parts of the border, right? It’s been a bit of a problem in the not too distant past.
And more than a fair number of would-be immigrants who get turned around at the border will simply try again later…only this time armed by the people who presumably wanted to keep them out in the first place and at great expense to boot. Or have them confiscated almost immediately by Mexican officials or the cartels. Either way, I don’t see how this convinces anybody to pay for a border wall.
Say - did you see where the founder of the Minute Men group - you know, those weekend warriors who “patrol” our border looking for illegal immegrants - was just convicted of child molestation?
Mr. Simcox, a former kindergarten teacher wanted to personally question the six year old he molested. Fortunately, he eventually agreed to allow an attorney to ask the questions.
Fortunately, Mr. Simcox will soon be enjoying a fine view of his very own wall.
Either the drug cartels would thank Mr. Trump for the free guns and ammo, or the now armed immigrants would be returning within days. Have fun, border patrol.
The drug cartels already have guns … it’s the People who do not … and once word gets out that there’s free guns at the border … no damn drug cartel can stop the stampede … and once the People have guns, drug cartels are going to have to be … very … careful …
Unfortunately, building a wall to prevent your own citizens from leaving carries a rather nasty stigma these days. Any attempt to bully Mexico into paying for such a wall would result in severe sanctions from the global community, up to and including trade embargoes or even getting kicked out of the U.N. Ain’t gonna happen, ever.
Do you have a point? :dubious:
Why?
The people won’t be organized, stampede or no. The cartels (and the government) are. A force of 10 people can’t take on an army of 1000. But a force of 10 people can easily take on 1000 people one at a time.
Also, if somehow they got organized, why would they tangle with the cartels in the first place? Why not take the guns and try the border crossing again, a little later and several miles down the way and now much better armed? Better to tackle the wilderness you were willing to challenge unarmed than fight some ruthless gangsters.
And STILL lacking is any cogent explanation for how these border shenanigans will in any way, shape, or form encourage the Mexican government to pay for a border wall since they won’t want to lock themselves in with a bunch of newly armed and desperate people.
This makes for a nice just-so type story, but an unorganized group of people is, by definition, not organized. They don’t have a single unifying goal, that is other than getting across the border, finding work, and providing for their family, which is not aided in the least by risking almost certain death tangling with notoriously violent people.
Credible estimates put the cost of the wall at $25 Billion (which doesn’t include maintenance and upkeep; will Mexico be paying for that, too?).
Can Mexico even afford a $25 Billion expenditure?
Simple Step 1 hire illegal immigrants to build it and pay them for their work
Step 2 Once completed, freeze and seize all their assets and deport them
Step 3 Profit
Not even that. The typical person crossing the border would probably just take the weapon and sell it. As you said, they’re coming for work, not some kind of movie-fantasy battle.
Right. This whole topic is just a fantasy story by Trump to get gullible fools to vote for him.
Nor with CBP.
In fact, more Mexicans are leaving than coming to the U.S. now, (a fact which Trumps would never admit to his deluded, foolish supporters), so making a wall–even if they could–wouldn’t change anything.
The most moronic thing about this is that unless the wall has manned watch towers along its entire length it’s not going to be particularly effective. You could do a much better job for a lot less money using more remote sensors, infrared and vibration, and increasing the border force patrol with more border force on ATV’s and dirt bikes to quickly respond to alerts. But “increase budget to border protection force” just doesn’t have the meme appeal of “build a wall”.
If you really wanted to close the border you’d plant land mines along it, not even Trump has been insane enough to suggest that.
You see, he’s not trying to keep them from coming in, he’s trying to keep them leaving.
Where else do you think he gets “The thousands of Mexicans who work for me” from?
My first thought was a Craigslist in Texas, near the border.
Won’t anyone think of the wildlife that needs to freely roam and migrate? Fuck off. Pay for a bunch of infrared drones or some shit. Let nature roam. These nation-spanning walls are stupid.
Do you sincerely believe the reason that José the Mexican plumber is afraid to go up against major Mexican criminals is because José can’t get a gun? :smack: How very … American of you! 
What if they were able to put a tax on all the money Mexican citizens send back to their families? I hear its Mexico’s #1 source of foreign income outside of oil.