I don’t see how they can be relevant with coaching changes! I do believe coaching looks for players who can succeed in there planning but as a whole trends are best used as a minor input alongside current-season data like injuries, matchups, and recent performance rather than as a standalone reason to expect something. It seems professional touts rely on trends heavily? I don’t get it !
What do you mean by “Trends?”
Many trends aren’t so much that a coach wants to do something as it is that he is forced to. A trend begets a trend. If the NFL, for instance, shifted from being a pass-heavy league to a run-heavy league, then a defensive coordinator has no choice but to go with the “trend” of scheming against the run, since that’s what the opposing offenses are all doing. He then has to jump on the “trend” of becoming an anti-rushing defense.
Given that the OP mentions “professional touts,” I am guessing that he is referring to more short-term trends which could affect gambling outcomes – that would seem to come down to “who’s hot,” more or less, I guess.
Humans have been seeing trends in everything from clouds to football teams since forever. And betting on the trends they see. Doesn’t mean it’s anything other than dumb money chasing somebody else’s confirmation bias.
With, as @kenobi_65 wisely said, some dollop of “who’s hot last week”.
Like these past stats pertaining to the Indianapolis/ Washington game
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Over is 6-1 in Commanders last 7 games overall.
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Over is 6-1 in Commanders last 7 games as an underdog.
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Over is 10-1 in Colts last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
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Over is 5-1 in Commanders last 6 games in Week 4.
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Commanders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
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Commanders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
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Over is 4-1-1 in Commanders last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
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Over is 4-1-1 in Commanders last 6 games following a straight up win.
Very True and gambling is a extremely popular and profitable business for some folks
If a coin is flipped and comes up heads 10 times in a row it must be due to come up tails the eleventh time right?
It is very profitable for the companies that run the websites and the casinos.
Individual gamblers don’t tend to make money in the long run.
RE Trends
Oh Geez he is referring to gambling er “Gaming” on college or pro football. Ach! my parents gambled everything they once owned on sports gambling. There is nothing good down that road my friends except depression and debt and despair. Stop now and save yourself
T
Thank you for the clarification.
Those “trends” are, of course, absolutely meaningless to coaches and players, because they all relate to a team’s performance against the spread, and over/under (number of points scored) – none of which have anything to do with what a coach or player are under contract to do, which is win football games.
Football (and baseball, at least) broadcasts are full of similar little statistical nuggets which are a curiosity, at most: “This player has run for 100 yards or more in seven straight night road games,” or whatever. Yes, it’s true, but is it actually meaningful?
I would suspect that the people who “tout” the sorts of trends you quote are trying to intimate that they have somehow cracked the code a bit, and found oddities which they present as a “sure thing” in wagering. I suspect that it’s all about (a) the guy making these observations trying to drive eyeballs, clicks, etc. to his website or social media accounts, and (b) driving up wagering.
Yep. Noise bites signifying nothing. But easy bites to sell to credulous rubes looking to buy an edge.
Some of them might possibly have some predictive value, but you need to engage your brain to figure out which. If DC has covered in their last several games, and the over had also won in those games, that tells you something about how they’ve been playing lately. If it’s about “this team won the last eighteen times, dating back to 1973, they played on Monday night when the moon was full”, that’s obviously bullshit no matter how impressive the numbers look.
I would wager that it affects the actions of owners, coaches and players as it relates to the gambling industry,
It is now officially part of sports broadcasting. There no way this isn’t going to alter the play of the sport for the purpose of gambling. There’s too much money involved.