NFL Week 10

Cafe Society
1

Games with mostly bodog lines, but a few from elsewhere where bodog isn’t set yet

BUF @ MIA (+3) 40.5
CLE (+9.5) @ PIT 47.5
STL (+12) @ NOR 46
ATL (+4) @ CAR 36
PHI (+3) @ WAS 38
MIN (+6) @ GB 40.5
CIN (+4) @ BAL 44.5
CHI @ OAK (+3.5) 38
DAL @ NYG (+2) 49
DET (+1) @ ARI 44.5
IND @ SD (+4) 48.5

SFO (+10) @ SEA 39.5
This thread is about everything relating to the NFL this week, but I’m going to focus on football betting in my OP because I’m going to start betting again a bit. I won a free-to-enter fantasy football contest at a sports book I used to use, so I figured I could play around with some of it.

Any of you bet the NFL?

Detroit, 6-2, coming off a dominant win over an AFC team, is a 1 point underdog against Arizona, 3-5 against mostly crappy competition. Can anyone explain that one? Is someone injured, or something? If not, this seems a bizarre line to me and I’d definitely put some money down on Detroit.

The over/under of 40.5 on the GB/Min game seems like an easy over to me, too.

I definitely like Indy -4 over San Diego over last week.

What do you guys think?

2

The Bills looked really good last week, and they’re on a roll. With such a small spread, I’d expect them to upset Miami. My Ravens looked despicable, disgusting, and incompetent… but if they put Boller in, at home, they could get revenge on the Bengals. If, however, McNair shows up and decides to use his first-down opportunities to gently place the ball inside the Ravens’ 20 where any old defender can pick it up… Also, LaDainian Tomlinson and Joseph Addai are not evenly matched; if I were a betting man I’d take the Colts.

Just my opinion, and lord knows I’ve been wrong before.

3

This Arizona game scares me. It’s setting up to be a classic letdown game. With that being said, you may want to take your points.
Detroit is 6 and 2 despite having the 28th ranked defense. Make of that what you will.

4

I imagine what’s keeping Detroit in the underdog column this week (aside from the fact that they’re on the road; they’d be a 5 or 6 point favorite at home) is that they’re still hanging pretty low in certain rating systems, like DVOA, since their two blowout losses (WAS and PHI) were more embarassing than their two good wins (DEN and TB) were impressive. They’ve only beaten one good team all year (TB), and they’re two losses were blowouts. My DVOA-based system says, first, don’t bet the game, but if you’re gonna bet it, take the Cardinals.

Nitpick: Buffalo is the favorite, they can’t upset anyone.

5

You might also factor in that Tampa Bay really should have beaten Detroit, save some really dumb mistakes. The Bucs dominated the clock, and amassed a ton of yards 422 vs 278. They lost because of a couple of fumbles, and penalties that took them back out of scoring position so they had to settle for field goals.

Arizona is certainly capable of the same sorts of errors, of course, but those do tend to happen more in road games than at home.

6

Oh man, if the Patriots make a legitimate push for an undefeated season then the NFL will spooje all over themselves, since the final week of the season will end up being a dramatic road trip to a good team who will likely need the win. If that happens, I’d expect around 10-20 million phones calls to various cable systems around the country demanding that they carry the NFL Network, which is where Patriots @ Giants will be carried.

Yes, that’s right, if that scenario happens, the vast majority of the country won’t be able to watch it despite it being the only game in its timeslot.

7

Well that depends on this weekend’s game. If the Giants win, they may not need the win at the end.
I’m thinking this Cowboys/Giants game is for the NFC East title. Or at least a head-to-head win may be important later. (not for head-to-head, because that’ll be 1-1, but rather for the division record)
Go Cowboys!

8

You have just been removed from my holiday card list.

I don’t want to call the NFC East this early, given what has happened in past seasons…oh, what the heck: GIANTS win this week, and at 13-2 face off against a 15-0 Patriots. Cowgirls trail, at 12-3, but only one division loss to the GIANTS.

Party at d_odds house in front of the big screen, hi-def TV so we can all watch the GIANTS end Bellichik’s and Brady’s attempt at a perfect season.

Superbowl? Manning versus Manning, round 2

9

That’s a nice little dream scenario, but IMO the Patriots would destroy the Giants in this game. This said as someone who is gainly a steady distaste for the Patriots.

10

I hope the 49ers enjoy being on Monday night twice this season, because they won’t make it back next year. They might not win another game. Fire Nolan, cut Smith. :frowning:
I don’t bet on football, I’m too emotionally connected to make a rational bet, and even then it’s quite fickle.

11

Yeah, having slept on it I’ve reconsidered my stance on the Det/Ari line. Detroit is a notoriously bad road team, and hasn’t done too much to shake that idea this year, while Arizona is coming off a few close losses and is likely to pull it out sometime.

I actually got a really detailed analysis from someone on a sports betting forum:

12

And Miami can’t be upset by anyone, since they’re nauseatingly bad. I’m a little amazed that the Bills have such a good chance to be 5-4 after week 10, and if anything should have won two more games.

13

That’s all well and good, or you could just go by rule #1 in betting games:

If you ever see a ridiculously wrong spread, where your gut tells you that one side is a mortal lock, BET AGAINST YOUR GUT. Somebody somewhere knows something you don’t, and it’s being reflected in the spread. Tons of idiots like you (this is me referring to myself) DON’T know that something, so the spread is artificially inflated in the direction of your gut. So betting against your gut is a steal.

To apply this to the current example, somebody somewhere knows something about why the Lions ain’t gonna beat the Cards. Countless ignorant knuckleheads just look at the records and pour money on the Lions, thinking they’re getting a steal. This moves the line higher on the Lions, meaning that the people in the know get an even more favorable spread for the now-approaching-sure-thing Cards. So bet the Cards.

14

While it’ll be good for the NFL in that sense, it might inspire a lot of anger towards them too for the people who view the NFL as the main villains in this story for attempting to price gouge cable companies and force their hands by creating situations just like this. It’s hard to say who everyone will be pissed at.
I just found out this weekend they’ll be doing Thursday night games up at the local movie theater. They already do Monday night games - it’s pretty cool. New theater, 60 foot DLP state of the art screen, HDTV feed… not only is it free, but every commercial break in the first half they raffle off free stuff - jerseys, sports video games, movie tickets, whatever. I don’t get the NFL network at home, so I’m happy to hear I can go there to watch any interesting games.

edit:

That’s a good point. I certainly didn’t look at Det+1 as a mortal lock, but I did find it a very favorable line. Part of what made me surprised at the line is what you said - most people will see 6-2, and 3-5, and go Detroit’s way. So I expected Detroit to be favored by 2-3 points for that reason. That they’re a 1 point underdog is a favorable line in my view.

But I’ll do more research into the game before I bet anything serious on it.

15

Cards fan checking in.

The way I’m seeing it is Detroit got hammered in 2 of their road losses earlier this year while the Cards beat Pittsburgh at home. The Cards lost to Carolina in that bizzarre game where they lost Warner and Tim Rattay (who just signed a couple days ago) had to play against Testeverde and the Panthers. Cards also beat the Seahawks at home.

The Cards are just one game out of first in the horrible NFC West and the Seahawks certainly don’t have a lock on it. I expect Whiz to push the Cards hard this week after that lazy performance in Tampa.

The Lions embarassed the Broncos last week. I could easily see a letdown when they travel out to the west.

Go Cards!

16

Unless I’m misunderstanding you, you may have it reversed. In the bolded part, do you mean as people bet on the Lions, they’d start to get even more points? If you see more people betting on the Lions, you’ll see the line move against them - it’ll become even, then Ari +1, etc.

As I’d imagine you know, the goal of handicappers isn’t to predict the game, or to sucker people into one side of the bet. They want to split the betting evenly down the middle.

If, at Det +1, countless ignorant knuckleheads are making it so that far more bets are going to Det +1 than Ari -1, they aren’t doing their job, the action would be unbalanced.

And that’s what I mean about being surprised about the line. Det +1 looks more like a line designed for the savvy player than the unwashed masses. If like 70% of potential betting money says “6-2 Det getting points? I’ll take it!” then it’s a bad line, regardless of what the handicapper knows/predicts about the game.

17

Thanks to the idiots at Direct TV, I don’t get any of the broadcast channels, but I do get the NFL network. Thursday night games, NFL Replay, (which is actually great, just the plays of the game. The matchups don’t show up on the on-screen guide, so I never know what game is playing when) and Monday Night are all the football I get.

18

Not necessarily. In general the books would like balanced action, but in the end they’re out to maximize their EV, not minimize their variance, and sometimes that means picking a side and not caring if most of the money comes down on the other team. For example, say that the oddsmakers felt that the true line for this game was Detroit +3, but they knew that 75% of the money would jump on Detroit +1. In that scenario, they’d prefer to offer a bad line that some people would take advantage of because that kind of line would make them more money in the long run than either the true line or the line that would produce balanced action.

19

Don’t forget: Kurt Warner. If the Detroit pass rush shows up, they can play against virtually anyone. The pass rush didn’t show up in Philly or Washington, two teams that are worse than their records indicate.

I won’t say to pick Detroit because I’ll sound like a homer, though. It all boils down to Detroit’s defensive line. If you think they’ll have a strong game, go with Detroit. If you think they’ll be banged up or play innefectively against Arizona’s offensive line, then bet against Detroit. Detroit’s secondary is rather bad, but the line makes it look a lot better. Arizona has the receivers to create mismatches.

20

Nah, I’d be very cautious of that one. Remember the game is in Green Bay and the weather is going to get cold for the first time this season. Who knows what Adrian Peterson will do in that type of condition. Also, he followed up his 224 yard day against the Bears with a 63 yard performance against Dallas. We’ll see if the Vikes go easy on him this week after last weeks career high 49 touches. Also, the Packers have an excellent defense which should make the already one dimensional Vikings a long shot to score more than 14 points. The Packers are also really one dimensional even if Grant has come on as of late, and the Vikes have a great run D. This game feels like it could easily be a 16-10 final score.

Another one I don;t think I’d bet. I think Indy is a great team and they outplayed the Pats except for the 4th quarter of that game, but this one stinks of a letdown game. With all they put into last weeks game and how banged up they are, it’s easy to imagine that they’ll go on the road and struggle against a surging Charger team. They could come out pissed off and win by 30, but I’m not sure I’d bet on it.