NFL Week 14

Cafe Society
1

Yahoo spreads:



Thursday, Dec 6
 Favorite 	      Open 	Today 	O/U 	Underdog
  at Washington 	3 	3 	37 	Chicago
Sunday, Dec 9
 Favorite 	      Open 	Today 	O/U 	Underdog
  at Buffalo 	        7 	7 	36 	Miami
  at Cincinnati 	NL 	6 	47 	St. Louis
  Cleveland 	     3 1/2 	3 	47 1/2 	at NY Jets
  Dallas 	     10 1/2 	10 1/2 	51 1/2 	at Detroit
  at Denver 	     6 1/2 	6 1/2 	37 	Kansas City
  at Green Bay   	10 	10 	42      Oakland
  Indianapolis 	        NL 	9 	44      at Baltimore
  at Jacksonville    10 1/2 	10 1/2 	37 1/2 	Carolina
  Minnesota 	        7 	9 	39      at San Francisco
  at New England 	NL 	10 1/2 	49 1/2 	Pittsburgh
  at Philadelphia 	3 	3 	42 1/2 	NY Giants
  at Seattle 	     6 1/2 	7 	44 1/2  Arizona
  Tampa Bay 	        NL 	3 	40 1/2  at Houston
  at Tennessee  	0 	0 	40      San Diego
Monday, Dec 10
 Favorite 	       Open 	Today 	O/U 	Underdog
  New Orleans 	        5 	4 	43      at Atlanta

As usual, I like Dallas to win. I think they’ll beat Detroit by a healthy margin, perhaps 14 or 17.

I also like Pittsburgh to upset. Getcha popcorn ready.

AZ @`Sea should be fun but I don’t know the Cards are strong enough to pull it off.

SD @ Ten should also be interesting. I’m hoping SD figures out that the playoffs are approaching and now is the time they need to turn their game up to 11.

2

I know they have the same record, but I’m surprised that the SD/Tenn game is pick’em. Even at home, the way the Titans have been playing I would have expected them to be dogs to the surging Chargers. Good thing Haynesworth is back; they’ll need him.

I’m hoping that after two uncomfortably close games, the Pats return to form at home and dominate the Steelers. They’ve been pretty successful against Roethlisberger in the past. I’m not sure the Pittsburgh secondary can blanket the NE receivers as well as Baltimore and Philly did – although both of those teams surprised me, so who knows.

3

I’d think Cleveland would take the Jets by more than 3.

Same with Tampa Bay over Houston. Should cover plus.

Dallas needs to start working on putting teams away to prep for NE in the big bowl. 10.5 is a lot but could be an indicator.

Wasn’t that impressed with Pittsburgh last week. I think the Pats will hurt them by worse than 10.

Indy at Baltimore should be real interesting. Will the Ravens be down or pissed? They have been playing against 12 man teams as of late.

4

#1 AFC South 21-9 (70%)
#2 NFC East 21-11 (66%)
#3 NFC North 18-12 (60%)
#4 AFC North 14-14 (50%)
#5 NFC South 12-18 (40%)
#5 AFC East 12-18 (40%)
#7 AFC West 11-19 (37%)
#8 NFC West 10-18 (36%)

#1 NFC 26-24 (52%)
#2 AFC 24-26 (48%)

I’m still hearing analysts say throw-away lines like “the pathetic NFC”, but I’m not seeing any dominance by the AFC outside of New England, and even then they had their troubles with an NFC cellar-dweller.

5

I’ve never bet on a game. How much does someone win if they pick a game correctly against the spread? I think lieu makes a good point about TB over NYJ.

6

Heh, TB over Houston or the Browns over the Jets?

7

OOPS! Cle over NYJ

8

I found a website that says a typical payout is 1:1.1 ATS.

9

T’was waiting because I’m sure others have much more experience but yes, the two SBs I bet on (Dallas) I won $100 and risked 110, a 10% juice.

10

I’ve never placed a bet with a bookie, but I do know that “juice” is called vigorish. I somehow remember that because it’s a fun word to say.

On another tangent, the ad at the bottom of this thread is now “Zimbabwe In Crisis”. Are they making an ironical point about how fixated we are on things that don’t really make any difference, while tuning out the misery that exists around the world?

And, in closing, Go Chargers!

11

Anyone willing to put money on tonight’s 'Skins / Bears game?

The Redskins are impossible to make a read on and I’ve lost both times I placed $ on them. (They covered against the 'Boys when I thought they’d get blown out and last week vs. the Bills came out flat -tragedy aside).

But this week’s bet-the-mortgage-on-it has got to be San Diego over Tennessee, right? I mean LT is starting to hit his stride, I understand he was a main speaker in a recent players-only meeting and Norv Turner (whom I despise) has apparently begun the slow extraction process of removing his head from his nether regions. This week it’s got to be the Lightening Bolts in an easy win.

12

Since when are the Titans (w/ Haynesworth) a pushover at home?

13

That’s what I was thinking.

Both at 7-5, SD is 2-4 on the road. Tenn 4-2 at home. The only good win for SD all year was a game they should have lost to Indy.

Tennessee is weird. They looked completely terrible without Haynesworth playing, but before that, they were looking like an epically great defense.

But, SD has been playing better than Tenn.

I’m not saying SD is the wrong pick, but that’s a pretty close matchup.

14

Peter King says Haynesworth had lingering hammy issues in the last game and that he had to take some plays off as a result. Therefore, LT’s mouth is watering. Any truth to that?

15

Steelers safety Anthony Smith guarantees a victory over the Patriots. :smack:

Cowboys’ corner Terence Newman speaking about Lions’ QB John Kitna said, “He better just hope I don’t blitz off the edge, because I’ve got 15, 25, 30 [thousand dollars], however much it would be for a fine. I’ve got that much for one fine. Revenge will be sweet definitely.” :smack:

Didn’t these guys graduate from college?

16

Kitna called Newman out by name, publicly, after the Cowboys-Lions game last year, which is why Newman is running his mouth. Even as a devoted Cowboys fan, I realize it’s in poor taste and I wish he’d just put it out there on the field, but he does have some reason to talk the smack.

17

A healthy Tennessee is probably a better team than San Diego. A pick 'em sounds about right. I think Tennessee will win, although I certainly hope not - they’re tied for the second AFC wildcard seed.

As far as what you win on a bet, the standard line is -110. What that means is that you risk $110 for every $100 you win. So you bet $110, and win $210 if successful.

But they also adjust the lines to try to balance the action. So if Team A -5 is getting 65% of the action, they might make the new lines Team A -115, Team B +105. That would mean that you need to risk 115 to win 100 on Team A with a -5 spread, whereas if you bet on team B you’d win $105 for every $100 wagered.

That’s also how money lines work - Team B in that example might be a +220 underdog, meaning that you could bet them to win straight up, and if you win, you win $220 for every $100 wagered.

18

Cool. Thanks for the explanation. Now, if someone could explain how to play football to the Bears…

19

I’m convinced that Orton got caught fingerbanging Lovie Smith’s wife.

20

I wonder how the average wagerline (links to covers.com but they use wagerline for their percentages) user has done against the spread for the year. They come to some pretty strong consensuses a lot of the time (I’d consider 70/30 in something that’s designed to be 50/50 pretty strong).

Interesting that 72% of wagerline users feel that Cleveland -3.5 is the stronger bet, and yet the actual money on the sports books are going towards the Jets (my book is offering even money on Cleveland, which I’d like to take except that I got destroyed last week and am gunshy about more sports bets).

I wish I’d have discovered that pretty cool site earlier in the season so I could get a feel for it. In very limited experience, the “expert opinion” part is useful, because the experts aren’t some self-declared expert blowhards, but rather the users who have the best track record betting monopoly money based on that teams games all seasons. The best experts often boast records of like 24-5 betting the spread and over/under on particular teams, and you can see how they’re calling the next one.

The strongest consensuses (?) with regard to just the expert numbers (not factoring in the #1 expert vs #10, etc) are Car/Jax over 38, GB -10.5, KC/Den over 37.5, NYG/Phi over 42.5

Weaker are CAR +10.5, KC +7, Dallas -10.5/over 50.5, TB -3, Min -8.5 over 39, Cle -3.5, ATL/NO under 42.5.