Sunday, Sep. 27
Early Games
** NY JETS 3 Tennessee 37 **
Well, last week I went against the Jets versus the Pats. I knew it’d be a win for the Jets in my gut but I talked myself out of it based on the rookie QB vs. Belichick logic. Sound logic I think and probably the right choice, you can’t regret getting games like that wrong. Still it leaves the question of if the Jets are for real or if the Pats have simply fallen that far. The Titans will be in desperation mode and will offer some serious competition. Chris Johnson won’t own the game like last week because the Jets defense is really legit but this is by far the best defense that Sanchez and the Jets RBBC will have to face. The Jets coverage has been outstanding this season and Collins and his shaky WRs will have very little room to breathe in the Meadowlands. Still its very hard for me to believe that the Titans will open the season 0-3. I’m going to go with my gut this time but it’ll be ranked low in my confidence pool.
The Pick: Jets 23 - Titans 18
** HOUSTON 3½ Jacksonville 47 **
The Texans finally got on track last week against the Titans in a surprising offensive explosion. The disappearance of Steve Slaton is utterly baffling though. I haven’t seen enough of the Texans to know what’s going on with them but I don’t think they’ll have any trouble with the Jags at home. The Jags secondary has been sliced and diced for two weeks in a row and Schaub will continue the trend I suspect. Whether MJD can have a Chris Johnson-like game remains to be seen against the Texans defense, and if he does I don’t expect the Texans to survive it two weeks in a row, but that’s not the type of event you can gamble on.
The Pick: Texans 34 - Jaguars 19
** PHILADELPHIA 8 Kansas City **
The Chiefs suck aggressively but 8 points is a ton with Kolb expected to start for a second week in a row and Westbrook dinged up, I’ve seen other sites with even higher odds. The line could still move a ton between now and Sunday but we’ll work with this one. I think Westbrook’s surgically repaired ankle is a concern and I think that McCoy could have a break out day. Still, the Chiefs offense is going to have to produce something on the road. Cassel is feeling a lot of heat and their running game has been completely ineffective. In an added twist it’s being reported that Vick will see action in this game out of the Wildcat. I’m not sure if that knowledge should effect anyone’s predictions since it probably won’t be decisive this early in the experiment but it’s interesting. All in all this game stinks of an upset. On paper I’m not sure why aside from the backup QB issue but this seems like one of those games where everyone and their brother picks the obvious team and it goes the other way. Sticking with my gut here on the spread but hedge with the moneyline.
The Pick: Eagles 17 - Chiefs 16
** BALTIMORE 13 Cleveland 38½ **
The Ravens have the makings of a juggernaut and with the lowly Brownies coming home this looks like a layup. 13 is a very big number to cover but Cleveland hasn’t done anything to give hope. At one point their O-Line was considered near-elite but they look awful right now and Quinn has already been sacked 9 times, he’s just not getting rid of the ball at all. His efficiency is JaMarcus-like and he’s getting very little help from the run game. Both are areas which won’t improve versus the Ravens D.
The Pick: Ravens 30 - Browns 12
** NY Giants 6½ TAMPA BAY 44 **
The Giants have played inconsistently, nevertheless they are 2-0 right now. The scary Giants running game has yet to manifest itself and the Bucs have shown flashes of having a effective one themselves. The Giants are banged up coming off a big road game and the Bucs have some key players on the injury report as well. The trip to a presumably hot and muggy Tampa could fatigue a shorthanded Giants defense. All in all I think the signs point towards a offensive shootout. The Giants D has lost some pieces and I think those holes will show and the Bucs D isn’t very good in the first place. I think the Bucs offense will have success and the Giants will again need to rely on Eli’s arm all game long. Assuming Cadillac and Bryant play this week and are close to 100% I think the Bucs cover that line.
The Pick: Giants 32 - Bucs 27
** Washington 6 DETROIT 38½ **
The Redskins suck. They suck hard. Decent defense but the passing game is a joke and the entire offensive system seems suspect. I had confidence in Jim Zorn when he was hired, not sure why, but so far he’s been disappointing to say the least. That said, they get the Lions this week and we know what they are about. Still, the Redskins have been so disappointing that the Lions have become the trendy pick here. Everyone seems to like the Lions to get off the schneid this week and usually when this happens the football gods exert their will and the casual fans get burned. But, screw it, I’m tempting fate and taking the lowly Lions*!
The Pick: Lions 30 - Redskins 17
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- Only partly because I am counting on Stafford in my money league.
** Green Bay 6½ ST LOUIS 41 **
The Packers have to be embarrassed about last weeks loss and that O-Line looks troubling but these are the Rams. Less than a TD?..yes please. Hey Rodgers, throw it to that Jennings guy!
The Pick: Packers 32 - Rams 3
** MINNESOTA 6½ San Francisco 40 **
This is going to be a very good game to watch. You’ve got the AP show versus Gore, fantasy owners everywhere will be chomping at the bit. AP supposedly is a little tweaked and I think the Niners have to start asking themselves if they are over using Gore. Still, considering how good AP has been at home this spread seems a little low. The 49ers defense has been solid so far and my gut tells me that this is the week that Brett Favre craps the bed.
The Pick: 49ers 21 - Vikings 18
** NEW ENGLAND 4 Atlanta 47 **
Huge game! Considering the way Brady has looked and Welker and Moss’ questionable status this week the Pats have little cause to be favored. Vegas is counting on a ton of people slow to notice the decline of the Pats and blindly betting on them. Their defense has been subpar and the offense undermanned. Until Brady starts playing like the Brady of old and the WRs get back to full speed this is a team to stay away from as their spreads are over valued. I think the Falcons walk into Gillette and make a serious statement.
The Pick: Falcons 30 - Pats 16
That’s all I have time for now. I’ll stop back with the Late games and Primetime matchups later.